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Title: Global Carbon Budget 2017

Abstract

Here an accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry ( E FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change ( E LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth ( G ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink ( S OCEAN) and terrestrial CO 2 sink ( S LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance ( B IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties aremore » reported as ±1 σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), E FF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr –1, E LUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr –1, G ATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr –1, S OCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr –1, and S LAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr –1, with a budget imbalance B IM of 0.6 GtC yr –1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in E FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ±\ 0.5 GtC yr –1. Also for 2016, E LUC was 1.3 ± .7 GtC yr –1, G ATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr –1, S OCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr –1, and S LAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr –1, with a small B IM of –0.3 GtC. G ATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small S LAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in E FF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [3];  [4];  [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [5];  [6];  [7];  [8]; ORCiD logo [1];  [9]; ORCiD logo [1];  [10];  [11];  [12];  [13]; ORCiD logo [14] more »;  [15];  [14];  [16];  [16];  [17];  [18];  [1]; ORCiD logo [19];  [5];  [20];  [21]; ORCiD logo [15];  [4];  [22]; ORCiD logo [23];  [24]; ORCiD logo [25];  [26];  [27];  [4];  [28];  [29]; ORCiD logo [30];  [31];  [32];  [28];  [33];  [34];  [35]; ORCiD logo [4];  [36];  [36];  [37];  [14];  [11];  [10];  [38]; ORCiD logo [39];  [40];  [41];  [42];  [43];  [42]; ORCiD logo [44]; ORCiD logo [45];  [29];  [46]; ORCiD logo [47];  [48]; ORCiD logo [49]; ORCiD logo [14];  [14]; ORCiD logo [7];  [3];  [50]; ORCiD logo [41]; ORCiD logo [14] « less
  1. Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)
  2. CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo (Norway)
  3. Univ. of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  4. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  5. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT (Australia)
  6. Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States)
  7. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  8. Earth System Research Lab. (NOAA/ESRL), Boulder, CO (United States)
  9. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada)
  10. Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab. (NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL (United States)
  11. Univ. of Bergen, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  12. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Univ. of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  13. Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France)
  14. Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX (France)
  15. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  16. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA (United States)
  17. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Dunedin (New Zealand)
  18. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  19. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)
  20. Woods Hole Research Centre (WHRC), Falmouth, MA (United States)
  21. Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States)
  22. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)
  23. Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Tokyo (Japan)
  24. Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) (Germany)
  25. Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)
  26. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; The Hague (The Netherlands); Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht (The Netherlands)
  27. GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel (Germany)
  28. Sorbonne Univ. (UPMC, Univ. Paris 06), Paris (France)
  29. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (Australia); Univ. of Tasmania (Australia)
  30. Univ. of Bern, Bern (Germany)
  31. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA (United States)
  32. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  33. Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL (United States)
  34. CSIR-CHPC, Cape Town (South Africa)
  35. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  36. National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki (Japan)
  37. Instituto de Investigacions Marinas (CSIC), Vigo (Spain)
  38. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States); Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States)
  39. Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemunde, Rostock (Germany)
  40. Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE (United States)
  41. Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
  42. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  43. Centre National de Recherche Meteorologique, Toulouse (France)
  44. CREAF, Catalonia (Spain)
  45. Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States)
  46. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome (Italy)
  47. Wageningen Univ. & Research, Wageningen (The Netherlands)
  48. Vrije Univ. Amsterdam, Amsterdam (The Netherlands)
  49. Univ. of Groningen, Groningen (The Netherlands)
  50. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1437913
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth System Science Data (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Earth System Science Data (Online); Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1866-3516
Publisher:
Copernicus
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Le Quere, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Pongratz, Julia, Manning, Andrew C., Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Canadell, Josep G., Jackson, Robert B., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Andrews, Oliver D., Arora, Vivek K., Bakker, Dorothee C. E., Barbero, Leticia, Becker, Meike, Betts, Richard A., Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frederic, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Cosca, Catherine E., Cross, Jessica, Currie, Kim, Gasser, Thomas, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Houghton, Richard A., Hunt, Christopher W., Hurtt, George, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Kautz, Markus, Keeling, Ralph F., Goldewijk, Kees Klein, Kortzinger, Arne, Landschutzer, Peter, Lefevre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lima, Ivan, Lombardozzi, Danica, Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, Nojiri, Yukihiro, Padin, X. Antonio, Peregon, Anna, Pfeil, Benjamin, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Reimer, Janet, Rodenbeck, Christian, Schwinger, Jorg, Seferian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco N., van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., van Heuven, Steven, Viovy, Nicolas, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Watson, Andrew J., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Zaehle, Sonke, and Zhu, Dan. Global Carbon Budget 2017. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.5194/essd-10-405-2018.
Le Quere, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Pongratz, Julia, Manning, Andrew C., Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Canadell, Josep G., Jackson, Robert B., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Andrews, Oliver D., Arora, Vivek K., Bakker, Dorothee C. E., Barbero, Leticia, Becker, Meike, Betts, Richard A., Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frederic, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Cosca, Catherine E., Cross, Jessica, Currie, Kim, Gasser, Thomas, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Houghton, Richard A., Hunt, Christopher W., Hurtt, George, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Kautz, Markus, Keeling, Ralph F., Goldewijk, Kees Klein, Kortzinger, Arne, Landschutzer, Peter, Lefevre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lima, Ivan, Lombardozzi, Danica, Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, Nojiri, Yukihiro, Padin, X. Antonio, Peregon, Anna, Pfeil, Benjamin, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Reimer, Janet, Rodenbeck, Christian, Schwinger, Jorg, Seferian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco N., van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., van Heuven, Steven, Viovy, Nicolas, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Watson, Andrew J., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Zaehle, Sonke, & Zhu, Dan. Global Carbon Budget 2017. United States. doi:10.5194/essd-10-405-2018.
Le Quere, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Pongratz, Julia, Manning, Andrew C., Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Canadell, Josep G., Jackson, Robert B., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Andrews, Oliver D., Arora, Vivek K., Bakker, Dorothee C. E., Barbero, Leticia, Becker, Meike, Betts, Richard A., Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frederic, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Cosca, Catherine E., Cross, Jessica, Currie, Kim, Gasser, Thomas, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Houghton, Richard A., Hunt, Christopher W., Hurtt, George, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Kautz, Markus, Keeling, Ralph F., Goldewijk, Kees Klein, Kortzinger, Arne, Landschutzer, Peter, Lefevre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lima, Ivan, Lombardozzi, Danica, Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, Nojiri, Yukihiro, Padin, X. Antonio, Peregon, Anna, Pfeil, Benjamin, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Reimer, Janet, Rodenbeck, Christian, Schwinger, Jorg, Seferian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco N., van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., van Heuven, Steven, Viovy, Nicolas, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Watson, Andrew J., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Zaehle, Sonke, and Zhu, Dan. Mon . "Global Carbon Budget 2017". United States. doi:10.5194/essd-10-405-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1437913.
@article{osti_1437913,
title = {Global Carbon Budget 2017},
author = {Le Quere, Corinne and Andrew, Robbie M. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Sitch, Stephen and Pongratz, Julia and Manning, Andrew C. and Korsbakken, Jan Ivar and Peters, Glen P. and Canadell, Josep G. and Jackson, Robert B. and Boden, Thomas A. and Tans, Pieter P. and Andrews, Oliver D. and Arora, Vivek K. and Bakker, Dorothee C. E. and Barbero, Leticia and Becker, Meike and Betts, Richard A. and Bopp, Laurent and Chevallier, Frederic and Chini, Louise P. and Ciais, Philippe and Cosca, Catherine E. and Cross, Jessica and Currie, Kim and Gasser, Thomas and Harris, Ian and Hauck, Judith and Haverd, Vanessa and Houghton, Richard A. and Hunt, Christopher W. and Hurtt, George and Ilyina, Tatiana and Jain, Atul K. and Kato, Etsushi and Kautz, Markus and Keeling, Ralph F. and Goldewijk, Kees Klein and Kortzinger, Arne and Landschutzer, Peter and Lefevre, Nathalie and Lenton, Andrew and Lienert, Sebastian and Lima, Ivan and Lombardozzi, Danica and Metzl, Nicolas and Millero, Frank and Monteiro, Pedro M. S. and Munro, David R. and Nabel, Julia E. M. S. and Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro and Nojiri, Yukihiro and Padin, X. Antonio and Peregon, Anna and Pfeil, Benjamin and Pierrot, Denis and Poulter, Benjamin and Rehder, Gregor and Reimer, Janet and Rodenbeck, Christian and Schwinger, Jorg and Seferian, Roland and Skjelvan, Ingunn and Stocker, Benjamin D. and Tian, Hanqin and Tilbrook, Bronte and Tubiello, Francesco N. and van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. and van der Werf, Guido R. and van Heuven, Steven and Viovy, Nicolas and Vuichard, Nicolas and Walker, Anthony P. and Watson, Andrew J. and Wiltshire, Andrew J. and Zaehle, Sonke and Zhu, Dan},
abstractNote = {Here an accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr–1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr–1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr–1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr–1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr–1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr–1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ±\ 0.5 GtC yr–1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± .7 GtC yr–1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr–1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr–1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr–1, with a small BIM of –0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.},
doi = {10.5194/essd-10-405-2018},
journal = {Earth System Science Data (Online)},
number = 1,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {3}
}

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    Projecting consequences of global warming for the functional diversity of fleshy‐fruited plants and frugivorous birds along a tropical elevational gradient
    journal, June 2019

    • Nowak, Larissa; Kissling, W. Daniel; Bender, Irene M. A.
    • Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 25, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12946

    Effects of 21st‐century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California
    journal, June 2019

    • Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Marvin, David C.; Cameron, D. Richard
    • Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14677

    Largely underestimated carbon emission from land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States
    journal, August 2019

    • Yu, Zhen; Lu, Chaoqun; Tian, Hanqin
    • Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, Issue 11
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14768

    Developing allometric models to predict the individual aboveground biomass of shrubs worldwide
    journal, February 2019

    • Conti, G.; Gorné, L. D.; Zeballos, S. R.
    • Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 28, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.1111/geb.12907

    CO 2 enrichment and soil type additively regulate grassland productivity
    journal, November 2018

    • Polley, H. Wayne; Aspinwall, Michael J.; Collins, Harold P.
    • New Phytologist, Vol. 222, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1111/nph.15562

    Global urbanization and food production in direct competition for land: Leverage places to mitigate impacts on SDG2 and on the Earth System
    journal, April 2019

    • Barthel, Stephan; Isendahl, Christian; Vis, Benjamin N.
    • The Anthropocene Review, Vol. 6, Issue 1-2
    • DOI: 10.1177/2053019619856672

    The Tropical Atlantic Observing System
    journal, May 2019


    Integrated Observations of Global Surface Winds, Currents, and Waves: Requirements and Challenges for the Next Decade
    journal, July 2019


    On the Future of Argo: A Global, Full-Depth, Multi-Disciplinary Array
    journal, August 2019

    • Roemmich, Dean; Alford, Matthew H.; Claustre, Hervé
    • Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 6
    • DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00439

    The Global Ocean Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP): A Platform for Integrated Multidisciplinary Ocean Science
    journal, August 2019

    • Sloyan, Bernadette M.; Wanninkhof, Rik; Kramp, Martin
    • Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 6
    • DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00445

    A segmentation algorithm for characterizing rise and fall segments in seasonal cycles: an application to XCO 2 to estimate benchmarks and assess model bias
    journal, January 2019

    • Calle, Leonardo; Poulter, Benjamin; Patra, Prabir K.
    • Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, Vol. 12, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.5194/amt-12-2611-2019

    Utilizing the Drake Passage Time-series to understand variability and change in subpolar Southern Ocean p CO 2
    journal, January 2018

    • Fay, Amanda R.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; McKinley, Galen A.
    • Biogeosciences, Vol. 15, Issue 12
    • DOI: 10.5194/bg-15-3841-2018

    Carbonate system distribution, anthropogenic carbon and acidification in the western tropical South Pacific (OUTPACE 2015 transect)
    journal, January 2018


    SURATLANT: a 1993–2017 surface sampling in the central part of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre
    journal, January 2018

    • Reverdin, Gilles; Metzl, Nicolas; Olafsdottir, Solveig
    • Earth System Science Data, Vol. 10, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.5194/essd-10-1901-2018

    Limitations of the 1 % experiment as the benchmark idealized experiment for carbon cycle intercomparison in C 4 MIP
    journal, January 2019