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Title: Global Carbon Budget 2017

Here an accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry ( E FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change ( E LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth ( G ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink ( S OCEAN) and terrestrial CO 2 sink ( S LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance ( B IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties aremore » reported as ±1 σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), E FF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr –1, E LUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr –1, G ATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr –1, S OCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr –1, and S LAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr –1, with a budget imbalance B IM of 0.6 GtC yr –1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in E FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ±\ 0.5 GtC yr –1. Also for 2016, E LUC was 1.3 ± .7 GtC yr –1, G ATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr –1, S OCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr –1, and S LAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr –1, with a small B IM of –0.3 GtC. G ATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small S LAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in E FF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.« less
Authors:
ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [2] ;  [3] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [1] ; ORCiD logo [2] ; ORCiD logo [2] ; ORCiD logo [5] ;  [6] ;  [7] ;  [8] ; ORCiD logo [1] ;  [9] ; ORCiD logo [1] ;  [10] ;  [11] ;  [12] ;  [13] ; ORCiD logo [14] more »;  [15] ;  [14] ;  [16] ;  [16] ;  [17] ;  [18] ;  [1] ; ORCiD logo [19] ;  [5] ;  [20] ;  [21] ; ORCiD logo [15] ;  [4] ;  [22] ; ORCiD logo [23] ;  [24] ; ORCiD logo [25] ;  [26] ;  [27] ;  [4] ;  [28] ;  [29] ; ORCiD logo [30] ;  [31] ;  [32] ;  [28] ;  [33] ;  [34] ;  [35] ; ORCiD logo [4] ;  [36] ;  [36] ;  [37] ;  [14] ;  [11] ;  [10] ;  [38] ; ORCiD logo [39] ;  [40] ;  [41] ;  [42] ;  [43] ;  [42] ; ORCiD logo [44] ; ORCiD logo [45] ;  [29] ;  [46] ; ORCiD logo [47] ;  [48] ; ORCiD logo [49] ; ORCiD logo [14] ;  [14] ; ORCiD logo [7] ;  [3] ;  [50] ; ORCiD logo [41] ; ORCiD logo [14] « less
  1. Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)
  2. CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo (Norway)
  3. Univ. of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  4. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  5. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT (Australia)
  6. Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States)
  7. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  8. Earth System Research Lab. (NOAA/ESRL), Boulder, CO (United States)
  9. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada)
  10. Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab. (NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL (United States)
  11. Univ. of Bergen, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  12. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Univ. of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  13. Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France)
  14. Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX (France)
  15. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  16. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA (United States)
  17. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Dunedin (New Zealand)
  18. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  19. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)
  20. Woods Hole Research Centre (WHRC), Falmouth, MA (United States)
  21. Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States)
  22. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)
  23. Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Tokyo (Japan)
  24. Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) (Germany)
  25. Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)
  26. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; The Hague (The Netherlands); Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht (The Netherlands)
  27. GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel (Germany)
  28. Sorbonne Univ. (UPMC, Univ. Paris 06), Paris (France)
  29. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (Australia); Univ. of Tasmania (Australia)
  30. Univ. of Bern, Bern (Germany)
  31. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA (United States)
  32. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  33. Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL (United States)
  34. CSIR-CHPC, Cape Town (South Africa)
  35. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  36. National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki (Japan)
  37. Instituto de Investigacions Marinas (CSIC), Vigo (Spain)
  38. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States); Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States)
  39. Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemunde, Rostock (Germany)
  40. Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE (United States)
  41. Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
  42. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  43. Centre National de Recherche Meteorologique, Toulouse (France)
  44. CREAF, Catalonia (Spain)
  45. Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States)
  46. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome (Italy)
  47. Wageningen Univ. & Research, Wageningen (The Netherlands)
  48. Vrije Univ. Amsterdam, Amsterdam (The Netherlands)
  49. Univ. of Groningen, Groningen (The Netherlands)
  50. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth System Science Data (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Earth System Science Data (Online); Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1866-3516
Publisher:
Copernicus
Research Org:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
OSTI Identifier:
1437913