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Title: Future heat waves and surface ozone

Abstract

A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppressionmore » that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ; ; ; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. Corp. for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1437671
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1509902
Grant/Contract Number:  
Cooperative Agreement # DE-FC02-97E; FC02-97ER62402
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 13 Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; surface ozone; heat waves; climate change

Citation Formats

Meehl, Gerald A., Tebaldi, Claudia, Tilmes, Simone, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Bates, Susan, Pendergrass, Angeline, and Lombardozzi, Danica. Future heat waves and surface ozone. United Kingdom: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdc.
Meehl, Gerald A., Tebaldi, Claudia, Tilmes, Simone, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Bates, Susan, Pendergrass, Angeline, & Lombardozzi, Danica. Future heat waves and surface ozone. United Kingdom. doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdc
Meehl, Gerald A., Tebaldi, Claudia, Tilmes, Simone, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Bates, Susan, Pendergrass, Angeline, and Lombardozzi, Danica. Fri . "Future heat waves and surface ozone". United Kingdom. doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdc.
@article{osti_1437671,
title = {Future heat waves and surface ozone},
author = {Meehl, Gerald A. and Tebaldi, Claudia and Tilmes, Simone and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Bates, Susan and Pendergrass, Angeline and Lombardozzi, Danica},
abstractNote = {A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdc},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 6,
volume = 13,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {2018},
month = {5}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdc

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 4 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: NOx emissions (Tg ofNO2 per year) for the RCP6.0 scenario (red lines) and for the sensitivity experiment with emissions stabilized at 2005 values (blue dots). Note for the RCP6.0 global average (labeled ‘World’), there are significant declines in NOx emissions led by the OECD countries (which include Northmore » America, Europe, eastern Mediterranean, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand). Asia has a rise until 2040, followed by stabilization and decline after 2060; other regions of the world have small declines.« less

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      Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.