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Title: Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.
Authors:
ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [2] ;  [1] ; ORCiD logo [1] ;  [1]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; SC0016605
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth System Dynamics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online); Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Research Org:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC); Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
OSTI Identifier:
1434026

Wehner, Michael F., Reed, Kevin A., Loring, Burlen, Stone, Daithi, and Krishnan, Harinarayan. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.5194/esd-9-187-2018.
Wehner, Michael F., Reed, Kevin A., Loring, Burlen, Stone, Daithi, & Krishnan, Harinarayan. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols. United States. doi:10.5194/esd-9-187-2018.
Wehner, Michael F., Reed, Kevin A., Loring, Burlen, Stone, Daithi, and Krishnan, Harinarayan. 2018. "Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols". United States. doi:10.5194/esd-9-187-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1434026.
@article{osti_1434026,
title = {Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols},
author = {Wehner, Michael F. and Reed, Kevin A. and Loring, Burlen and Stone, Daithi and Krishnan, Harinarayan},
abstractNote = {The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-187-2018},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
number = 1,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {2}
}