Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols
Abstract
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1440369
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1434026
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; SC0016605
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Earth System Dynamics (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online) Journal Volume: 9 Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
- Publisher:
- Copernicus Publications, EGU
- Country of Publication:
- Germany
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
Citation Formats
Wehner, Michael F., Reed, Kevin A., Loring, Burlen, Stone, Dáithí, and Krishnan, Harinarayan. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols. Germany: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.5194/esd-9-187-2018.
Wehner, Michael F., Reed, Kevin A., Loring, Burlen, Stone, Dáithí, & Krishnan, Harinarayan. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols. Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018
Wehner, Michael F., Reed, Kevin A., Loring, Burlen, Stone, Dáithí, and Krishnan, Harinarayan. Wed .
"Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols". Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018.
@article{osti_1440369,
title = {Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols},
author = {Wehner, Michael F. and Reed, Kevin A. and Loring, Burlen and Stone, Dáithí and Krishnan, Harinarayan},
abstractNote = {The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-187-2018},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
number = 1,
volume = 9,
place = {Germany},
year = {Wed Feb 28 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Wed Feb 28 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018
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