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Title: Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall

Abstract

Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. Herein, a large scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-MK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the MRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, dam construction and stream regulation reduce flood risk consistently throughout this century, with more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5];  [5]; ORCiD logo [2];  [6]
  1. Changjiang Inst. of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Wuhan (China); Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
  2. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing (China)
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  4. Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States)
  5. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
  6. Mekong Inst. of Cambodia, Phnom Penh (Cambodia)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
National Key Research and Development Program of China; National Key Basic Research Program of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1430447
Report Number(s):
[PNNL-SA-127876]
[Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276; KP1703010]
Grant/Contract Number:  
[AC05-76RL01830; 2016YFA0601603; 2015CB953703; 91537210; 41371328]
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
[ Journal Volume: 44; Journal Issue: 20]; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; ENSO; temperature; precipitation; teleconnections; climate change

Citation Formats

Wang, Wei, Lu, Hui, Leung, L. Ruby, Li, Hong-Yi, Zhao, Jianshi, Tian, Fuqiang, Yang, Kun, and Sothea, Khem. Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/2017GL075037.
Wang, Wei, Lu, Hui, Leung, L. Ruby, Li, Hong-Yi, Zhao, Jianshi, Tian, Fuqiang, Yang, Kun, & Sothea, Khem. Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall. United States. doi:10.1002/2017GL075037.
Wang, Wei, Lu, Hui, Leung, L. Ruby, Li, Hong-Yi, Zhao, Jianshi, Tian, Fuqiang, Yang, Kun, and Sothea, Khem. Mon . "Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall". United States. doi:10.1002/2017GL075037. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1430447.
@article{osti_1430447,
title = {Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall},
author = {Wang, Wei and Lu, Hui and Leung, L. Ruby and Li, Hong-Yi and Zhao, Jianshi and Tian, Fuqiang and Yang, Kun and Sothea, Khem},
abstractNote = {Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. Herein, a large scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-MK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the MRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, dam construction and stream regulation reduce flood risk consistently throughout this century, with more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075037},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = [20],
volume = [44],
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {10}
}

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