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Title: False alarms and the IMS infrasound network: Understanding the factors influencing the creation of false events

Abstract

The International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network has been designed to acquire the necessary data to detect and locate explosions in the atmosphere with a yield equivalent to 1 kiloton of TNT anywhere on Earth. A major associated challenge is the task of automatically processing data from all IMS infrasound stations to identify possible nuclear tests for subsequent review by analysts. This paper is the fi rst attempt to quantify the false alarm rate (FAR) of the IMS network, and in particular to assess how the FAR is affected by the numbers and distributions of detections at each infrasound station. To ensure that the results are sufficiently general, and not dependent entirely on one detection algorithm, the assessment is based on two detection algorithms that can be thought of as end members in their approach to the trade-off between missed detections and false alarms. The results show that the FAR for events formed at only two arrays is extremely high (ranging from 10's to 100's of false events per day across the IMS network, depending on the detector tuning). It is further shown that the FAR for events formed at three or more IMS arrays is driven by ocean-generated wavesmore » (microbaroms), despite efforts within both detection algorithms for avoiding these signals, indicating that further research into this issue is merited. Overall, the results highlight the challenge of processing data from a globally sparse network of stations to detect and form events. On the basis of these results, it is shown that further work on understanding signal and noise characteristics is needed before attempting to form events detected at only two arrays. However, this effort can be aided by building a database of robust events detected with high con dence at three or more arrays.« less

Authors:
 [1]
  1. Sandia National Laboratories, P. O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0404, USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation (NA-20)
OSTI Identifier:
1429704
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1466999
Report Number(s):
SAND-2017-13103J
Journal ID: ISSN 0956-540X; 659257
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000; NA0003525
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Journal International
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 215; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0956-540X
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION; 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; 98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION; Infrasound; Nuclear Explosion Monitoring; International Monitoring System

Citation Formats

Arrowsmith, Stephen J. False alarms and the IMS infrasound network: Understanding the factors influencing the creation of false events. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1093/gji/ggy350.
Arrowsmith, Stephen J. False alarms and the IMS infrasound network: Understanding the factors influencing the creation of false events. United States. doi:10.1093/gji/ggy350.
Arrowsmith, Stephen J. Thu . "False alarms and the IMS infrasound network: Understanding the factors influencing the creation of false events". United States. doi:10.1093/gji/ggy350. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1429704.
@article{osti_1429704,
title = {False alarms and the IMS infrasound network: Understanding the factors influencing the creation of false events},
author = {Arrowsmith, Stephen J.},
abstractNote = {The International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network has been designed to acquire the necessary data to detect and locate explosions in the atmosphere with a yield equivalent to 1 kiloton of TNT anywhere on Earth. A major associated challenge is the task of automatically processing data from all IMS infrasound stations to identify possible nuclear tests for subsequent review by analysts. This paper is the fi rst attempt to quantify the false alarm rate (FAR) of the IMS network, and in particular to assess how the FAR is affected by the numbers and distributions of detections at each infrasound station. To ensure that the results are sufficiently general, and not dependent entirely on one detection algorithm, the assessment is based on two detection algorithms that can be thought of as end members in their approach to the trade-off between missed detections and false alarms. The results show that the FAR for events formed at only two arrays is extremely high (ranging from 10's to 100's of false events per day across the IMS network, depending on the detector tuning). It is further shown that the FAR for events formed at three or more IMS arrays is driven by ocean-generated waves (microbaroms), despite efforts within both detection algorithms for avoiding these signals, indicating that further research into this issue is merited. Overall, the results highlight the challenge of processing data from a globally sparse network of stations to detect and form events. On the basis of these results, it is shown that further work on understanding signal and noise characteristics is needed before attempting to form events detected at only two arrays. However, this effort can be aided by building a database of robust events detected with high con dence at three or more arrays.},
doi = {10.1093/gji/ggy350},
journal = {Geophysical Journal International},
number = 2,
volume = 215,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {8}
}

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