Prospective Environmental Analyses of Emerging Technology: A Critique, a Proposed Methodology, and a Case Study on Incremental Sheet Forming
Abstract
Summary Prospective environmental assessment of emerging technology is necessary in order to inform designers of beneficial changes early in a technology's development, and policy makers looking to fund projects and nudge manufacturers toward the most sustainable application of a technology. Existing analyses often have shortcomings such as failing to consider the environmental impacts in all stages of a product's life cycle; implicitly assuming that the emerging technology will be cost‐effective wherever it is technically viable; and assuming optimistic application scenarios that discontinue long‐established trends in human behavior. In this article, we propose a new approach, complementary to the prospective and anticipatory life cycle assessment literature, addressing the above concerns and attempting to make sense of the large uncertainties inherent in such analyses by using distributions to model all the inputs. The paper focuses on emerging manufacturing technologies, such as incremental sheet forming (ISF), but the issues examined are also applicable to new end‐use products, such as autonomous vehicles. This paper makes use of approaches (such as Bass modeling and product cannibalization considerations) familiar to those in the business community who anticipate market diffusion of a new technology and the effect on existing technology sales. The proposed methodology is demonstrated bymore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
- University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USA
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USA
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1429537
- Resource Type:
- Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Industrial Ecology
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Journal of Industrial Ecology Journal Volume: 24 Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1088-1980
- Publisher:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Cooper, Daniel R., and Gutowski, Timothy G. Prospective Environmental Analyses of Emerging Technology: A Critique, a Proposed Methodology, and a Case Study on Incremental Sheet Forming. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1111/jiec.12748.
Cooper, Daniel R., & Gutowski, Timothy G. Prospective Environmental Analyses of Emerging Technology: A Critique, a Proposed Methodology, and a Case Study on Incremental Sheet Forming. United States. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12748
Cooper, Daniel R., and Gutowski, Timothy G. Sun .
"Prospective Environmental Analyses of Emerging Technology: A Critique, a Proposed Methodology, and a Case Study on Incremental Sheet Forming". United States. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12748.
@article{osti_1429537,
title = {Prospective Environmental Analyses of Emerging Technology: A Critique, a Proposed Methodology, and a Case Study on Incremental Sheet Forming},
author = {Cooper, Daniel R. and Gutowski, Timothy G.},
abstractNote = {Summary Prospective environmental assessment of emerging technology is necessary in order to inform designers of beneficial changes early in a technology's development, and policy makers looking to fund projects and nudge manufacturers toward the most sustainable application of a technology. Existing analyses often have shortcomings such as failing to consider the environmental impacts in all stages of a product's life cycle; implicitly assuming that the emerging technology will be cost‐effective wherever it is technically viable; and assuming optimistic application scenarios that discontinue long‐established trends in human behavior. In this article, we propose a new approach, complementary to the prospective and anticipatory life cycle assessment literature, addressing the above concerns and attempting to make sense of the large uncertainties inherent in such analyses by using distributions to model all the inputs. The paper focuses on emerging manufacturing technologies, such as incremental sheet forming (ISF), but the issues examined are also applicable to new end‐use products, such as autonomous vehicles. This paper makes use of approaches (such as Bass modeling and product cannibalization considerations) familiar to those in the business community who anticipate market diffusion of a new technology and the effect on existing technology sales. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by estimating the potential environmental impacts in the U.S. car industry by 2030 of an emerging double‐sided ISF process. Energy and cost models of ISF and drawing are used to estimate potential mean savings of around 100 TJ primary and 60 million U.S. dollars per year by 2030.},
doi = {10.1111/jiec.12748},
journal = {Journal of Industrial Ecology},
number = 1,
volume = 24,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Mar 25 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Sun Mar 25 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12748
https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12748
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 21 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Does Craigslist Reduce Waste? Evidence from California and Florida
journal, February 2017
- Fremstad, Anders
- Ecological Economics, Vol. 132
Consumption and the Rebound Effect: An Industrial Ecology Perspective
journal, January 2005
- Hertwich, Edgar G.
- Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 9, Issue 1-2
Energy and emissions saving potential of additive manufacturing: the case of lightweight aircraft components
journal, November 2016
- Huang, Runze; Riddle, Matthew; Graziano, Diane
- Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 135
Multigeneration Innovation Diffusion: The Impact of Intergeneration Time
journal, January 2003
- Pae, Jae H.; Lehmann, Donald R.
- Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Vol. 31, Issue 1
Towards prospective life cycle assessment: Single wall carbon nanotubes for lithium-ion batteries
conference, May 2011
- Wender, Ben A.; Seager, Thomas P.
- 2011 IEEE International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology (ISSST), Proceedings of the 2011 IEEE International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology
A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables
journal, January 1969
- Bass, Frank M.
- Management Science, Vol. 15, Issue 5
Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions
journal, June 2010
- Peres, Renana; Muller, Eitan; Mahajan, Vijay
- International Journal of Research in Marketing, Vol. 27, Issue 2
Identifying the effects of cannibalization on the product portfolio
journal, June 2005
- Raghavan Srinivasan, Sundara; Ramakrishnan, Sreeram; Grasman, Scott E.
- Marketing Intelligence & Planning, Vol. 23, Issue 4
A dynamic process-based cost modeling approach to understand learning effects in manufacturing
journal, November 2010
- Nadeau, Marie-Claude; Kar, Ashish; Roth, Richard
- International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 128, Issue 1
Energy savings and emissions reductions associated with increased insulation for new homes in the United States
journal, February 2016
- Levy, Jonathan I.; Woo, May K.; Tambouret, Yann
- Building and Environment, Vol. 96
Multi-objective optimization in material design and selection
journal, January 2000
- Ashby, M. F.
- Acta Materialia, Vol. 48, Issue 1
Circular Economy Rebound: Circular Economy Rebound
journal, February 2017
- Zink, Trevor; Geyer, Roland
- Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 21, Issue 3
Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for U.S. households with input–output analysis Part 1: Theoretical framework
journal, February 2013
- Thomas, Brinda A.; Azevedo, Inês L.
- Ecological Economics, Vol. 86
A structured search for applications of the incremental sheet-forming process by product segmentation
journal, February 2005
- Allwood, J. M.; King, G. P. F.; Duflou, J.
- Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part B: Journal of Engineering Manufacture, Vol. 219, Issue 2
The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies
journal, August 2015
- Massiani, Jérôme; Gohs, Andreas
- Research in Transportation Economics, Vol. 50
Environmental rebound effects of high-speed transport technologies: a case study of climate change rebound effects of a future underground maglev train system
journal, September 2008
- Spielmann, Michael; de Haan, Peter; Scholz, Roland W.
- Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 16, Issue 13
Solid-state lighting: an energy-economics perspective
journal, August 2010
- Tsao, J. Y.; Saunders, H. D.; Creighton, J. R.
- Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics, Vol. 43, Issue 35
Vehicle lightweighting energy use impacts in U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet
journal, July 2016
- Das, Sujit; Graziano, Diane; Upadhyayula, Venkata K. K.
- Sustainable Materials and Technologies, Vol. 8
An Environmental and Cost Analysis of Stamping Sheet Metal Parts
journal, November 2016
- Cooper, Daniel R.; Rossie, Kathleen E.; Gutowski, Timothy G.
- Journal of Manufacturing Science and Engineering, Vol. 139, Issue 4
The Long Run Demand for Lighting:Elasticities and Rebound Effects in Different Phases of Economic Development
journal, January 2012
- Fouquet, Roger; Pearson, Peter J. G.
- Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, Vol. 1, Issue 1
The rebound effect: some empirical evidence from India
journal, June 2000
- Roy, Joyashree
- Energy Policy, Vol. 28, Issue 6-7
Rapid tooling approaches for small lot production of sheet-metal parts
journal, August 2001
- Müller, H.; Sladojevic, J.
- Journal of Materials Processing Technology, Vol. 115, Issue 1
The energy requirements and environmental impacts of sheet metal forming: An analysis of five forming processes
journal, June 2017
- Cooper, Daniel R.; Rossie, Kathleen E.; Gutowski, Timothy G.
- Journal of Materials Processing Technology, Vol. 244
Anticipatory life-cycle assessment for responsible research and innovation
journal, May 2014
- Wender, Ben A.; Foley, Rider W.; Hottle, Troy A.
- Journal of Responsible Innovation, Vol. 1, Issue 2
Re-spending rebound: A macro-level assessment for OECD countries and emerging economies
journal, May 2014
- Antal, Miklós; van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.
- Energy Policy, Vol. 68
An approach for identifying cannibalization within product line extensions and multi-brand strategies
journal, October 1994
- Mason, Charlotte H.; Milne, George R.
- Journal of Business Research, Vol. 31, Issue 2-3
Energy efficiency and consumption — the rebound effect — a survey
journal, June 2000
- A. Greening, Lorna; Greene, David L.; Difiglio, Carmen
- Energy Policy, Vol. 28, Issue 6-7
Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes
journal, February 1936
- Wright, T. P.
- Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, Vol. 3, Issue 4
Tradeoff Evaluation Improves Comparative Life Cycle Assessment: A Photovoltaic Case Study: Trade-off Identification in Comparative LCA
journal, June 2015
- Prado-Lopez, Valentina; Wender, Ben A.; Seager, Thomas P.
- Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 20, Issue 4
Can Efficiency Improvements Reduce Resource Consumption?: A Historical Analysis of Ten Activities
journal, March 2014
- Dahmus, Jeffrey B.
- Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 18, Issue 6
Sensitivity-based research prioritization through stochastic characterization modeling
journal, April 2017
- Wender, Ben A.; Prado, Valentina; Fantke, Peter
- The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Vol. 23, Issue 2
Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress
journal, February 2013
- Nagy, Béla; Farmer, J. Doyne; Bui, Quan M.
- PLoS ONE, Vol. 8, Issue 2
Common Misconceptions about Recycling: Common Misconceptions about Recycling
journal, October 2015
- Geyer, Roland; Kuczenski, Brandon; Zink, Trevor
- Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 20, Issue 5
Reducing energy consumption in road transport through hybrid vehicles: investigation of rebound effects, and possible effects of tax rebates
journal, January 2007
- de Haan, Peter; Peters, Anja; Scholz, Roland W.
- Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 15, Issue 11-12
Estimating Market Growth for New Products: An Analogical Diffusion Model Approach
journal, March 1985
- Thomas, Robert J.
- Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 2, Issue 1
Implementing life cycle assessment in product development: Implementing Life Cycle Assessment in Product Development
journal, December 2003
- Bhander, Gurbakhash Singh; Hauschild, Michael; McAloone, Tim
- Environmental Progress, Vol. 22, Issue 4
The Rebound Effect and Energy Efficiency Policy
journal, December 2015
- Gillingham, Kenneth; Rapson, David; Wagner, Gernot
- Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Illustrating Anticipatory Life Cycle Assessment for Emerging Photovoltaic Technologies
journal, August 2014
- Wender, Ben A.; Foley, Rider W.; Prado-Lopez, Valentina
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 48, Issue 18
A Market-Based Framework for Quantifying Displaced Production from Recycling or Reuse: Market-Based Framework for Quantifying Displaced Production
journal, July 2015
- Zink, Trevor; Geyer, Roland; Startz, Richard
- Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 20, Issue 4
Demand and Dematerialization Impacts of Second-Hand Markets.: Reuse or More Use?
journal, March 2003
- Thomas, Valerie M.
- Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 7, Issue 2
Let's Be Clear(er) about Substitution: A Reporting Framework to Account for Product Displacement in Life Cycle Assessment: A Framework to Account for Substitution in LCA
journal, December 2016
- Vadenbo, Carl; Hellweg, Stefanie; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard
- Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 21, Issue 5