The social inefficiency of regulating indirect land use change due to biofuels

Khanna, Madhu; Wang, Weiwei; Hudiburg, Tara W.; DeLucia, Evan H.

doi:10.1038/ncomms15513

Title: The social inefficiency of regulating indirect land use change due to biofuels

Abstract

Efforts to reduce the indirect land use change (ILUC) -related carbon emissions caused by biofuels has led to inclusion of an ILUC factor as a part of the carbon intensity of biofuels in a Low Carbon Fuel Standard. While previous research has provided varying estimates of this ILUC factor, there has been no research examining the economic effects and additional carbon savings from including this factor in implementing a Low Carbon Fuel Standard. In this article we show that inclusion of an ILUC factor in a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard led to additional abatement of cumulative emissions over 2007–2027 by 1.3 to 2.6% (0.6–1.1 billion mega-grams carbon-dioxide-equivalent (Mg CO₂e^-1) compared to those without an ILUC factor, depending on the ILUC factors utilized. The welfare cost to the US of this additional abatement ranged from 61 dollars to 187 dollars Mg CO₂e^-1 and was substantially greater than the social cost of carbon of $50 Mg CO₂e^-1.

Authors:

Khanna, Madhu ^[1]; Wang, Weiwei ^[2]; Hudiburg, Tara W. ^[3]; DeLucia, Evan H. ^[4]

Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States). Inst. for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment and Dept. of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States). Dept. of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
Univ. of Idaho, Moscow, ID (United States). Dept. of Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Sciences
Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States). Inst. for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment and Dept. of Plant Biology

Publication Date:: Mon Jun 26 00:00:00 EDT 2017

Research Org.:: South Dakota State Univ., Brookings, SD (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Sustainable Transportation Office. Bioenergy Technologies Office; Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); National Science Foundation (NSF)

OSTI Identifier:: 1425823

Grant/Contract Number:: FG36-08GO88073; IIA-1301792

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Nature Communications

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 2017; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing Group

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 58 GEOSCIENCES; 09 BIOMASS FUELS; Biogeochemistry; Environmental economics

Citation Formats


                    Khanna, Madhu, Wang, Weiwei, Hudiburg, Tara W., and DeLucia, Evan H. The social inefficiency of regulating indirect land use change due to biofuels.  United States: N. p., 2017. 
Web.  doi:10.1038/ncomms15513.

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                    Khanna, Madhu, Wang, Weiwei, Hudiburg, Tara W., & DeLucia, Evan H. The social inefficiency of regulating indirect land use change due to biofuels.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15513

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                    Khanna, Madhu, Wang, Weiwei, Hudiburg, Tara W., and DeLucia, Evan H. Mon .  
"The social inefficiency of regulating indirect land use change due to biofuels".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15513.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1425823.

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@article{osti_1425823,

  title        = {The social inefficiency of regulating indirect land use change due to biofuels},

  author       = {Khanna, Madhu and Wang, Weiwei and Hudiburg, Tara W. and DeLucia, Evan H.},

  abstractNote = {Efforts to reduce the indirect land use change (ILUC) -related carbon emissions caused by biofuels has led to inclusion of an ILUC factor as a part of the carbon intensity of biofuels in a Low Carbon Fuel Standard. While previous research has provided varying estimates of this ILUC factor, there has been no research examining the economic effects and additional carbon savings from including this factor in implementing a Low Carbon Fuel Standard. In this article we show that inclusion of an ILUC factor in a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard led to additional abatement of cumulative emissions over 2007–2027 by 1.3 to 2.6% (0.6–1.1 billion mega-grams carbon-dioxide-equivalent (Mg CO2e-1) compared to those without an ILUC factor, depending on the ILUC factors utilized. The welfare cost to the US of this additional abatement ranged from 61 dollars to 187 dollars Mg CO2e-1 and was substantially greater than the social cost of carbon of $50 Mg CO2e-1.},

  doi          = {10.1038/ncomms15513},

  journal      = {Nature Communications},

  number       = 2017,

  volume       = 8,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Mon Jun 26 00:00:00 EDT 2017},

  month        = {Mon Jun 26 00:00:00 EDT 2017}

}

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Land use mediated GHG emissions and spillovers from increased consumption of bioplastics
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Escobar, Neus; Haddad, Salwa; Börner, Jan
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Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 50, Issue 4
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Title: The social inefficiency of regulating indirect land use change due to biofuels

Abstract

Citation Formats

Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change journal, July 2011

Selective Reporting and the Social Cost of Carbon journal, January 2015

Simulating greenhouse gas mitigation potentials for Chinese Croplands using the DAYCENT ecosystem model journal, December 2013

Cost of Abating Greenhouse Gas Emissions with Cellulosic Ethanol journal, February 2015

Global scale DAYCENT model analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation strategies for cropped soils journal, May 2009

Alternative transportation fuel standards: Welfare effects and climate benefits journal, May 2014

Assessing the Soil Carbon, Biomass Production, and Nitrous Oxide Emission Impact of Corn Stover Management for Bioenergy Feedstock Production Using DAYCENT journal, February 2014

Impacts of a 32-billion-gallon bioenergy landscape on land and fossil fuel use in the US journal, January 2016

Carbon savings with transatlantic trade in pellets: accounting for market-driven effects journal, November 2015

Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate journal, October 2013

Indirect land use change: much ado about (almost) nothing journal, June 2016

Are there Carbon Savings from US Biofuel Policies? The Critical Importance of Accounting for Leakage in Land and Fuel Markets journal, July 2015

Testing DAYCENT Model Simulations of Corn Yields and Nitrous Oxide Emissions in Irrigated Tillage Systems in Colorado journal, January 2008

Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change journal, February 2008

Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change journal, July 2011

Policy options to address global land use change from biofuels journal, May 2013

Predicting methanogenesis from rice paddies using the DAYCENT ecosystem model journal, July 2013

The Impact of Biofuels on Commodity Food Prices: Assessment of Findings journal, June 2012

Effects of US Maize Ethanol on Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimating Market-mediated Responses journal, March 2010

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Biofuels’ Indirect Land Use Change Are Uncertain but May Be Much Greater than Previously Estimated journal, November 2010

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Biofuels’ Indirect Land Use Change Are Uncertain but May Be Much Greater than Previously Estimated journal, November 2010

Modeling Agricultural Supply Response Using Mathematical Programming and Crop Mixes journal, February 2012

Climate-regulation services of natural and agricultural ecoregions of the Americas journal, January 2012

Stacking low carbon policies on the renewable fuels standard: Economic and greenhouse gas implications journal, May 2013

Measuring Indirect Land Use Change with Biofuels: Implications for Policy journal, August 2012

Unintended Consequences of Carbon Policies: Transportation Fuels, Land-Use, Emissions, and Innovation journal, July 2015

Induced Land Use Emissions due to First and Second Generation Biofuels and Uncertainty in Land Use Emission Factors journal, January 2013

Induced Land Use Emissions due to First and Second Generation Biofuels and Uncertainty in Land Use Emission Factors journal, January 2013

DAYCENT model analysis of past and contemporary soil NO and net greenhouse gas flux for major crops in the USA journal, August 2005

Bioenergy crop greenhouse gas mitigation potential under a range of management practices journal, March 2014

Long‐Run Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices journal, June 2017

Consequential Life Cycle Assessment of Policy Vulnerability to Price Effects: CLCA of Policy Vulnerability to Price Effects journal, October 2013

Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change journal, February 2008

Using DAYCENT to quantify on-farm GHG emissions and N dynamics of land use conversion to N-managed switchgrass in the Southern U.S. journal, May 2011

Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon journal, September 2015

Measuring Indirect Land Use Change with Biofuels: Implications for Policy journal, August 2012

Testing DAYCENT Model Simulations of Corn Yields and Nitrous Oxide Emissions in Irrigated Tillage Systems in Colorado journal, January 2008

Land-Use and Greenhouse gas Implications of Biofuels: role of Technology and Policy journal, August 2012

The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties journal, November 2005

DAYCENT and its land surface submodel: description and testing journal, December 1998

Cost of Abating Greenhouse Gas Emissions with Cellulosic Ethanol journal, February 2015

Indirect land use change: much ado about (almost) nothing journal, June 2016

Food vs. Fuel: The Effect of Biofuel Policies journal, May 2012

Land use mediated GHG emissions and spillovers from increased consumption of bioplastics journal, December 2018

Production technologies, current role, and future prospects of biofuels feedstocks: A state-of-the-art review journal, June 2019

Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change
journal, July 2011

Selective Reporting and the Social Cost of Carbon
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Simulating greenhouse gas mitigation potentials for Chinese Croplands using the DAYCENT ecosystem model
journal, December 2013

Cost of Abating Greenhouse Gas Emissions with Cellulosic Ethanol
journal, February 2015

Global scale DAYCENT model analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation strategies for cropped soils
journal, May 2009

Alternative transportation fuel standards: Welfare effects and climate benefits
journal, May 2014

Assessing the Soil Carbon, Biomass Production, and Nitrous Oxide Emission Impact of Corn Stover Management for Bioenergy Feedstock Production Using DAYCENT
journal, February 2014

Impacts of a 32-billion-gallon bioenergy landscape on land and fossil fuel use in the US
journal, January 2016

Carbon savings with transatlantic trade in pellets: accounting for market-driven effects
journal, November 2015

Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate
journal, October 2013

Indirect land use change: much ado about (almost) nothing
journal, June 2016

Are there Carbon Savings from US Biofuel Policies? The Critical Importance of Accounting for Leakage in Land and Fuel Markets
journal, July 2015

Testing DAYCENT Model Simulations of Corn Yields and Nitrous Oxide Emissions in Irrigated Tillage Systems in Colorado
journal, January 2008

Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change
journal, February 2008

Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change
journal, July 2011

Policy options to address global land use change from biofuels
journal, May 2013

Predicting methanogenesis from rice paddies using the DAYCENT ecosystem model
journal, July 2013

The Impact of Biofuels on Commodity Food Prices: Assessment of Findings
journal, June 2012

Effects of US Maize Ethanol on Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimating Market-mediated Responses
journal, March 2010

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Biofuels’ Indirect Land Use Change Are Uncertain but May Be Much Greater than Previously Estimated
journal, November 2010

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Biofuels’ Indirect Land Use Change Are Uncertain but May Be Much Greater than Previously Estimated
journal, November 2010

Modeling Agricultural Supply Response Using Mathematical Programming and Crop Mixes
journal, February 2012

Climate-regulation services of natural and agricultural ecoregions of the Americas
journal, January 2012

Stacking low carbon policies on the renewable fuels standard: Economic and greenhouse gas implications
journal, May 2013

Measuring Indirect Land Use Change with Biofuels: Implications for Policy
journal, August 2012

Unintended Consequences of Carbon Policies: Transportation Fuels, Land-Use, Emissions, and Innovation
journal, July 2015

Induced Land Use Emissions due to First and Second Generation Biofuels and Uncertainty in Land Use Emission Factors
journal, January 2013

Induced Land Use Emissions due to First and Second Generation Biofuels and Uncertainty in Land Use Emission Factors
journal, January 2013

DAYCENT model analysis of past and contemporary soil NO and net greenhouse gas flux for major crops in the USA
journal, August 2005

Bioenergy crop greenhouse gas mitigation potential under a range of management practices
journal, March 2014

Long‐Run Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices
journal, June 2017

Consequential Life Cycle Assessment of Policy Vulnerability to Price Effects: CLCA of Policy Vulnerability to Price Effects
journal, October 2013

Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change
journal, February 2008

Using DAYCENT to quantify on-farm GHG emissions and N dynamics of land use conversion to N-managed switchgrass in the Southern U.S.
journal, May 2011

Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon
journal, September 2015

Measuring Indirect Land Use Change with Biofuels: Implications for Policy
journal, August 2012

Testing DAYCENT Model Simulations of Corn Yields and Nitrous Oxide Emissions in Irrigated Tillage Systems in Colorado
journal, January 2008

Land-Use and Greenhouse gas Implications of Biofuels: role of Technology and Policy
journal, August 2012

The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties
journal, November 2005

DAYCENT and its land surface submodel: description and testing
journal, December 1998

Cost of Abating Greenhouse Gas Emissions with Cellulosic Ethanol
journal, February 2015

Indirect land use change: much ado about (almost) nothing
journal, June 2016

Food vs. Fuel: The Effect of Biofuel Policies
journal, May 2012

Land use mediated GHG emissions and spillovers from increased consumption of bioplastics
journal, December 2018

Production technologies, current role, and future prospects of biofuels feedstocks: A state-of-the-art review
journal, June 2019