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Title: Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [3] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5] ; ORCiD logo [6] ;  [1]
  1. University of California Irvine
  2. University of California, Irvine
  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
  4. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
  5. Cornell University
  6. ORNL
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Science
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 359; Journal Issue: 6380
Research Org:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
OSTI Identifier:
1425334

Moore, J. Keith, Fu, Weiwei, Primeau, Francois, Britten, Gregory L., Lindsay, Keith, Long, Matthew, Doney, Scott C., Mahowald, Natalie M., Hoffman, Forrest M., and Randerson, James T.. Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1126/science.aao6379.
Moore, J. Keith, Fu, Weiwei, Primeau, Francois, Britten, Gregory L., Lindsay, Keith, Long, Matthew, Doney, Scott C., Mahowald, Natalie M., Hoffman, Forrest M., & Randerson, James T.. Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity. United States. doi:10.1126/science.aao6379.
Moore, J. Keith, Fu, Weiwei, Primeau, Francois, Britten, Gregory L., Lindsay, Keith, Long, Matthew, Doney, Scott C., Mahowald, Natalie M., Hoffman, Forrest M., and Randerson, James T.. 2018. "Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity". United States. doi:10.1126/science.aao6379.
@article{osti_1425334,
title = {Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity},
author = {Moore, J. Keith and Fu, Weiwei and Primeau, Francois and Britten, Gregory L. and Lindsay, Keith and Long, Matthew and Doney, Scott C. and Mahowald, Natalie M. and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Randerson, James T.},
abstractNote = {Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aao6379},
journal = {Science},
number = 6380,
volume = 359,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {3}
}