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Title: A short-term and high-resolution distribution system load forecasting approach using support vector regression with hybrid parameters optimization

Here, this paper proposes an approach for distribution system load forecasting, which aims to provide highly accurate short-term load forecasting with high resolution utilizing a support vector regression (SVR) based forecaster and a two-step hybrid parameters optimization method. Specifically, because the load profiles in distribution systems contain abrupt deviations, a data normalization is designed as the pretreatment for the collected historical load data. Then an SVR model is trained by the load data to forecast the future load. For better performance of SVR, a two-step hybrid optimization algorithm is proposed to determine the best parameters. In the first step of the hybrid optimization algorithm, a designed grid traverse algorithm (GTA) is used to narrow the parameters searching area from a global to local space. In the second step, based on the result of the GTA, particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to determine the best parameters in the local parameter space. After the best parameters are determined, the SVR model is used to forecast the short-term load deviation in the distribution system. The performance of the proposed approach is compared to some classic methods in later sections of the paper.
 [1] ; ORCiD logo [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  2. Univ. of Denver, Denver, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
Journal ID: ISSN 1949-3053
Grant/Contract Number:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1949-3053
Research Org:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE)
Country of Publication:
United States
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION; short-term load forecast; support vector regression; grid traverse algorithm; particle swarm optimization; distribution system
OSTI Identifier: