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Title: Recent intensification of winter haze in China linked to foreign emissions and meteorology

Wintertime aerosol pollution in Northern China has increased over the past several decades as anthropogenic emissions in China have increased, and has increased dramatically since the beginning of the 21st century, but the causes and their quantitative contributions remain uncertain. Here we use an aerosol source tagging capability implemented in a global aerosol-climate model to assess long-term trends of PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) in Northern China. Our analysis suggests that increasing PM2.5 concentrations due to local emission increases within China were obscured (~13%) by foreign emission reductions between 1980–2000. As foreign emissions stabilized during 2000-2014, their counteracting effect almost disappeared, uncovering China’s pollution potential from domestic emission increases. The meteorology dominated PM2.5 trend during 1990–1996 and also uncovered the pollution potential due to decadal variations in winds. The stabilized foreign emissions together with changing meteorology explain a quarter of the larger increasing trend of PM2.5 since the beginning of the 21st century. Future foreign emissions are not expected to help hiding China’s pollution, reductions in local emissions are the efficient way to improve future air quality in Northern China.
Authors:
ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ; ORCiD logo [1] ;  [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-128267
Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322; 453040196
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Scientific Reports
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
OSTI Identifier:
1423415