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Title: Uncertainty Analysis in 3D Equilibrium Reconstruction

Abstract

Reconstruction is an inverse process where a parameter space is searched to locate a set of parameters with the highest probability of describing experimental observations. Due to systematic errors and uncertainty in experimental measurements, this optimal set of parameters will contain some associated uncertainty. This uncertainty in the optimal parameters leads to uncertainty in models derived using those parameters. V3FIT is a three-dimensional (3D) equilibrium reconstruction code that propagates uncertainty from the input signals, to the reconstructed parameters, and to the final model. Here in this paper, we describe the methods used to propagate uncertainty in V3FIT. Using the results of whole shot 3D equilibrium reconstruction of the Compact Toroidal Hybrid, this propagated uncertainty is validated against the random variation in the resulting parameters. Two different model parameterizations demonstrate how the uncertainty propagation can indicate the quality of a reconstruction. As a proxy for random sampling, the whole shot reconstruction results in a time interval that will be used to validate the propagated uncertainty from a single time slice.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  2. Auburn Univ., AL (United States). Allison Lab.
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) (SC-24)
OSTI Identifier:
1423072
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; FG02-03ER54692
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Fusion Science and Technology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 73; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1536-1055
Publisher:
American Nuclear Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; Bayesian inference; equilibrium reconstruction

Citation Formats

Cianciosa, Mark R., Hanson, James D., and Maurer, David A. Uncertainty Analysis in 3D Equilibrium Reconstruction. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1080/15361055.2017.1392819.
Cianciosa, Mark R., Hanson, James D., & Maurer, David A. Uncertainty Analysis in 3D Equilibrium Reconstruction. United States. doi:10.1080/15361055.2017.1392819.
Cianciosa, Mark R., Hanson, James D., and Maurer, David A. Wed . "Uncertainty Analysis in 3D Equilibrium Reconstruction". United States. doi:10.1080/15361055.2017.1392819. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1423072.
@article{osti_1423072,
title = {Uncertainty Analysis in 3D Equilibrium Reconstruction},
author = {Cianciosa, Mark R. and Hanson, James D. and Maurer, David A.},
abstractNote = {Reconstruction is an inverse process where a parameter space is searched to locate a set of parameters with the highest probability of describing experimental observations. Due to systematic errors and uncertainty in experimental measurements, this optimal set of parameters will contain some associated uncertainty. This uncertainty in the optimal parameters leads to uncertainty in models derived using those parameters. V3FIT is a three-dimensional (3D) equilibrium reconstruction code that propagates uncertainty from the input signals, to the reconstructed parameters, and to the final model. Here in this paper, we describe the methods used to propagate uncertainty in V3FIT. Using the results of whole shot 3D equilibrium reconstruction of the Compact Toroidal Hybrid, this propagated uncertainty is validated against the random variation in the resulting parameters. Two different model parameterizations demonstrate how the uncertainty propagation can indicate the quality of a reconstruction. As a proxy for random sampling, the whole shot reconstruction results in a time interval that will be used to validate the propagated uncertainty from a single time slice.},
doi = {10.1080/15361055.2017.1392819},
journal = {Fusion Science and Technology},
number = 3,
volume = 73,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {2}
}

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