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Title: Implications of Emerging Vehicle Technologies on Rare Earth Supply and Demand in the United States

Abstract

In this article, we explore the long-term demand and supply potentials of rare earth elements in alternative energy vehicles (AEVs) in the United States until 2050. Using a stock-flow model, we compare a baseline scenario with scenarios that incorporate an exemplary technological innovation: a novel aluminum–cerium–magnesium alloy. We find that the introduction of the novel alloy demonstrates that even low penetration rates can exceed domestic cerium production capacity, illustrating possible consequences of technological innovations to material supply and demand. End-of-life vehicles can, however, overtake domestic mining as a source of materials, calling for proper technologies and policies to utilize this emerging source. The long-term importing of critical materials in manufactured and semi-manufactured products shifts the location of material stocks and hence future secondary supply of high-value materials, culminating in a double benefit to the importing country. This modeling approach is adaptable to the study of varied scenarios and materials, linking technologies with supply and demand dynamics in order to understand their potential economic and environmental consequences.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
  2. Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies; Univ. of Edinburgh, Scotland (United Kingdom). School of Engineering
  3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). Critical Materials Inst.
OSTI Identifier:
1422473
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Resources
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2079-9276
Publisher:
MDPI
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE; 33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; rare earth elements; critical materials; material flow analysis; electric and hybrid vehicles; secondary material supply

Citation Formats

Fishman, Tomer, Myers, Rupert, Rios, Orlando, and Graedel, T. E. Implications of Emerging Vehicle Technologies on Rare Earth Supply and Demand in the United States. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.3390/resources7010009.
Fishman, Tomer, Myers, Rupert, Rios, Orlando, & Graedel, T. E. Implications of Emerging Vehicle Technologies on Rare Earth Supply and Demand in the United States. United States. doi:10.3390/resources7010009.
Fishman, Tomer, Myers, Rupert, Rios, Orlando, and Graedel, T. E. Thu . "Implications of Emerging Vehicle Technologies on Rare Earth Supply and Demand in the United States". United States. doi:10.3390/resources7010009. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1422473.
@article{osti_1422473,
title = {Implications of Emerging Vehicle Technologies on Rare Earth Supply and Demand in the United States},
author = {Fishman, Tomer and Myers, Rupert and Rios, Orlando and Graedel, T. E.},
abstractNote = {In this article, we explore the long-term demand and supply potentials of rare earth elements in alternative energy vehicles (AEVs) in the United States until 2050. Using a stock-flow model, we compare a baseline scenario with scenarios that incorporate an exemplary technological innovation: a novel aluminum–cerium–magnesium alloy. We find that the introduction of the novel alloy demonstrates that even low penetration rates can exceed domestic cerium production capacity, illustrating possible consequences of technological innovations to material supply and demand. End-of-life vehicles can, however, overtake domestic mining as a source of materials, calling for proper technologies and policies to utilize this emerging source. The long-term importing of critical materials in manufactured and semi-manufactured products shifts the location of material stocks and hence future secondary supply of high-value materials, culminating in a double benefit to the importing country. This modeling approach is adaptable to the study of varied scenarios and materials, linking technologies with supply and demand dynamics in order to understand their potential economic and environmental consequences.},
doi = {10.3390/resources7010009},
journal = {Resources},
number = 1,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {1}
}

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