skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Abstract

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 undermore » the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Guangdong Univ. of Technology, Guangzhou (China); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States); Univ. of Oxford, Oxford (United Kingdom)
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1421346
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-119623
Journal ID: ISSN 1607-7938; KP1703030; TRN: US1801513
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online); Journal Volume: 22; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1607-7938
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Zhou, Qianqian, Leng, Guoyong, and Huang, Maoyi. Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.5194/hess-22-305-2018.
Zhou, Qianqian, Leng, Guoyong, & Huang, Maoyi. Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations. United States. doi:10.5194/hess-22-305-2018.
Zhou, Qianqian, Leng, Guoyong, and Huang, Maoyi. Mon . "Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations". United States. doi:10.5194/hess-22-305-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1421346.
@article{osti_1421346,
title = {Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations},
author = {Zhou, Qianqian and Leng, Guoyong and Huang, Maoyi},
abstractNote = {As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-22-305-2018},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online)},
number = 1,
volume = 22,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {1}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 9 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
journal, July 2017


Urban drainage system planning and design – challenges with climate change and urbanization: a review
journal, May 2015

  • Yazdanfar, Zeinab; Sharma, Ashok
  • Water Science and Technology, Vol. 72, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.2166/wst.2015.207

A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas
journal, July 2017

  • Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3350

A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach
journal, January 2013


A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate: IRRIGATION EFFECTS ON WATER RESOURCES
journal, August 2015

  • Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong
  • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 7, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/2015MS000437

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment
journal, December 2013

  • Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222473110

Statistical bias correction of global simulated daily precipitation and temperature for the application of hydrological models
journal, December 2010


Optimization Procedure for cost Effective bmp Placement at a Watershed Scale
journal, December 2003


Calibration Strategies: A Source of Additional Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections
journal, January 2012

  • Ho, Chun Kit; Stephenson, David B.; Collins, Matthew
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1175/2011BAMS3110.1

Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits
journal, January 2012


Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: Methods and shortcomings
journal, January 2012


Evaluation of 1D and 2D numerical models for predicting river flood inundation
journal, November 2002


Modeling the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Irrigation over China: Sensitivity to Adjusted Projections
journal, October 2014


Potential future increase in extreme one-hour precipitation events over Europe due to climate change
journal, November 2009

  • Larsen, A. N.; Gregersen, I. B.; Christensen, O. B.
  • Water Science and Technology, Vol. 60, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.2166/wst.2009.650

Evaluating Flood Resilience Strategies for Coastal Megacities
journal, May 2014


Uncertainty Analysis in the Evaluation of Extreme Rainfall Trends and Its Implications on Urban Drainage System Design
journal, December 2015

  • Notaro, Vincenza; Liuzzo, Lorena; Freni, Gabriele
  • Water, Vol. 7, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.3390/w7126667

Flood risk assessment for urban water system in a changing climate using artificial neural network
journal, July 2015


Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments
journal, January 2015

  • Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens
  • Water, Vol. 7, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.3390/w7010255

Approaches to sewer maintenance: a review
journal, December 2000


A review of models for low impact urban stormwater drainage
journal, March 2007


Multi-objective optimization for combined quality–quantity urban runoff control
journal, January 2012

  • Oraei Zare, S.; Saghafian, B.; Shamsai, A.
  • Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 16, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.5194/hess-16-4531-2012

Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation
journal, December 2013


Quantification of climate change effects on extreme precipitation used for high resolution hydrologic design
journal, April 2012


Improvement of a drainage system for flood management with assessment of the potential effects of climate change
journal, October 2013


Self-Organizing Gaussian-Based Downscaling of ClimateData for Simulation of Urban Drainage Systems
journal, February 2013


Analysis of the impact of low impact development on runoff from a new district in Korea
journal, September 2013

  • Lee, Jung-min; Hyun, Kyoung-hak; Choi, Jong-soo
  • Water Science and Technology, Vol. 68, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.2166/wst.2013.346

Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world
journal, December 2013

  • Piontek, Franziska; Müller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222471110

Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change
journal, December 2013

  • Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222475110

Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise
journal, February 2014

  • Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222469111

Increasing flood risk under climate change: a pan-European assessment of the benefits of four adaptation strategies
journal, March 2016


Attribution of flood risk in urban areas
journal, October 2008

  • Dawson, R. J.; Speight, L.; Hall, J. W.
  • Journal of Hydroinformatics, Vol. 10, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2008.054

Assessment of the service performance of drainage system and transformation of pipeline network based on urban combined sewer system model
journal, May 2015

  • Peng, Hai-Qin; Liu, Yan; Wang, Hong-Wu
  • Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Vol. 22, Issue 20
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11356-015-4707-0

Applying climate model precipitation scenarios for urban hydrological assessment: A case study in Kalmar City, Sweden
journal, May 2009


Statistics of extremes in hydrology
journal, August 2002


First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble
journal, December 2013

  • Dankers, Rutger; Arnell, Nigel W.; Clark, Douglas B.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1302078110

Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations
journal, June 2015

  • Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, H.
  • Climate Research, Vol. 64, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.3354/cr01299

Potential of semi-structural and non-structural adaptation strategies to reduce future flood risk: case study for the Meuse
journal, January 2012

  • Poussin, J. K.; Bubeck, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.
  • Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 12, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.5194/nhess-12-3455-2012

Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be?
journal, September 2008


Stormwater management and climate change: vulnerability and capacity for adaptation in urban and suburban contexts
journal, August 2016


Assessing urban water security under changing climate: Challenges and ways forward
journal, August 2018


On the use of 1D and coupled 1D-2D modelling approaches for assessment of flood damage in urban areas
journal, September 2009


Adaptation to urbanization impacts on drainage in the city of Hohhot, China
journal, September 2015

  • Zhou, Qianqian; Ren, Yi; Xu, Miaomiao
  • Water Science and Technology, Vol. 73, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.2166/wst.2015.478

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
journal, December 2013

  • Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222474110

An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
journal, June 2003


Factors influencing the structural deterioration and collapse of rigid sewer pipes
journal, March 2001


Climate change impacts on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China
journal, March 2015


Review of urban storm water models
journal, April 2001


The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework
journal, December 2013

  • Warszawski, Lila; Frieler, Katja; Huber, Veronika
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1312330110

Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Urban Storm Water Runoff Using Statistically Downscaled Precipitation Data and a Change Factor Approach
journal, July 2015