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Title: Investigation of short-term effective radiative forcing of fire aerosols over North America using nudged hindcast ensembles

Abstract

Aerosols from fire emissions can potentially have large impact on clouds and radiation. However, fire aerosol sources are often intermittent, and their effect on weather and climate is difficult to quantify. Here we investigated the short-term effective radiative forcing of fire aerosols using the global aerosol–climate model Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Different from previous studies, we used nudged hindcast ensembles to quantify the forcing uncertainty due to the chaotic response to small perturbations in the atmosphere state. Daily mean emissions from three fire inventories were used to consider the uncertainty in emission strength and injection heights. The simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and mass concentrations were evaluated against in situ measurements and reanalysis data. Overall, the results show the model has reasonably good predicting skills. Short (10-day) nudged ensemble simulations were then performed with and without fire emissions to estimate the effective radiative forcing. Results show fire aerosols have large effects on both liquid and ice clouds over the two selected regions in April 2009. Ensemble mean results show strong negative shortwave cloud radiative effect (SCRE) over almost the entirety of southern Mexico, with a 10-day regional mean value of –3.0 W m–2. Over the central US, the SCREmore » is positive in the north but negative in the south, and the regional mean SCRE is small (–0.56 W m–2). For the 10-day average, we found a large ensemble spread of regional mean shortwave cloud radiative effect over southern Mexico (15.6 % of the corresponding ensemble mean) and the central US (64.3 %), despite the regional mean AOD time series being almost indistinguishable during the 10-day period. Moreover, the ensemble spread is much larger when using daily averages instead of 10-day averages. In conclusion, this demonstrates the importance of using a large ensemble of simulations to estimate the short-term aerosol effective radiative forcing.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [3];  [3];  [2];  [4];  [5]
  1. Nanjing Univ., Nanjing (China); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  3. Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)
  4. Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)
  5. Nanjing Univ., Nanjing (China)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1421334
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-131476
Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324; KP1703010
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online); Journal Volume: 18; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; aerosols; radiative; emissions; climate model

Citation Formats

Liu, Yawen, Zhang, Kai, Qian, Yun, Wang, Yuhang, Zou, Yufei, Song, Yongjia, Wan, Hui, Liu, Xiaohong, and Yang, Xiu -Qun. Investigation of short-term effective radiative forcing of fire aerosols over North America using nudged hindcast ensembles. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.5194/acp-18-31-2018.
Liu, Yawen, Zhang, Kai, Qian, Yun, Wang, Yuhang, Zou, Yufei, Song, Yongjia, Wan, Hui, Liu, Xiaohong, & Yang, Xiu -Qun. Investigation of short-term effective radiative forcing of fire aerosols over North America using nudged hindcast ensembles. United States. doi:10.5194/acp-18-31-2018.
Liu, Yawen, Zhang, Kai, Qian, Yun, Wang, Yuhang, Zou, Yufei, Song, Yongjia, Wan, Hui, Liu, Xiaohong, and Yang, Xiu -Qun. Wed . "Investigation of short-term effective radiative forcing of fire aerosols over North America using nudged hindcast ensembles". United States. doi:10.5194/acp-18-31-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1421334.
@article{osti_1421334,
title = {Investigation of short-term effective radiative forcing of fire aerosols over North America using nudged hindcast ensembles},
author = {Liu, Yawen and Zhang, Kai and Qian, Yun and Wang, Yuhang and Zou, Yufei and Song, Yongjia and Wan, Hui and Liu, Xiaohong and Yang, Xiu -Qun},
abstractNote = {Aerosols from fire emissions can potentially have large impact on clouds and radiation. However, fire aerosol sources are often intermittent, and their effect on weather and climate is difficult to quantify. Here we investigated the short-term effective radiative forcing of fire aerosols using the global aerosol–climate model Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Different from previous studies, we used nudged hindcast ensembles to quantify the forcing uncertainty due to the chaotic response to small perturbations in the atmosphere state. Daily mean emissions from three fire inventories were used to consider the uncertainty in emission strength and injection heights. The simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and mass concentrations were evaluated against in situ measurements and reanalysis data. Overall, the results show the model has reasonably good predicting skills. Short (10-day) nudged ensemble simulations were then performed with and without fire emissions to estimate the effective radiative forcing. Results show fire aerosols have large effects on both liquid and ice clouds over the two selected regions in April 2009. Ensemble mean results show strong negative shortwave cloud radiative effect (SCRE) over almost the entirety of southern Mexico, with a 10-day regional mean value of –3.0 W m–2. Over the central US, the SCRE is positive in the north but negative in the south, and the regional mean SCRE is small (–0.56 W m–2). For the 10-day average, we found a large ensemble spread of regional mean shortwave cloud radiative effect over southern Mexico (15.6 % of the corresponding ensemble mean) and the central US (64.3 %), despite the regional mean AOD time series being almost indistinguishable during the 10-day period. Moreover, the ensemble spread is much larger when using daily averages instead of 10-day averages. In conclusion, this demonstrates the importance of using a large ensemble of simulations to estimate the short-term aerosol effective radiative forcing.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-18-31-2018},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)},
number = 1,
volume = 18,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {1}
}

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