Search Menu
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Search Scholarly Publications

Title: Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

Journal Article · · Environmental Research Letters
ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m2 of suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.

Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
OSTI ID:
1420352
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1423546
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-70760
Journal Information:
Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 2; ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP PublishingCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 47 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (13)

Quantifying rooftop photovoltaic solar energy potential: A machine learning approach journal January 2017
An automated model for rooftop PV systems assessment in ArcGIS using LIDAR journal January 2015
Photovoltaic potential in a Lisbon suburb using LiDAR data journal January 2012
Potential of distributed photovoltaics in urban Chile journal October 2016
Modelling solar potential in the urban environment: State-of-the-art review journal January 2015
Development of a method for estimating the rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) potential by analyzing the available rooftop area using Hillshade analysis journal May 2017
Economic and environmental assessment of rooftops regarding suitability for photovoltaic systems installation based on remote sensing data journal July 2016
Using GIS-based methods and lidar data to estimate rooftop solar technical potential in US cities journal July 2017
Estimating Rooftop Suitability for PV: A Review of Methods, Patents, and Validation Techniques report December 2013
Technical-economic potential of PV systems on Brazilian rooftops journal March 2015
Assessment of the photovoltaic potential at urban level based on 3D city models: A case study and new methodological approach journal April 2017
Quantifying rooftop solar photovoltaic potential for regional renewable energy policy journal July 2010
Users Manual for TMY3 Data Sets (Revised) report May 2008

Cited By (7)

A data mining approach to estimating rooftop photovoltaic potential in the US journal July 2018
Solar PV as a mitigation strategy for the US education sector journal March 2019
A GIS-Based Method for Identification of Wide Area Rooftop Suitability for Minimum Size PV Systems Using LiDAR Data and Photogrammetry journal December 2018
Powering a Sustainable and Circular Economy—An Engineering Approach to Estimating Renewable Energy Potentials within Earth System Boundaries journal December 2019
The Application of LiDAR Data for the Solar Potential Analysis Based on Urban 3D Model journal October 2019
The application of lidar data for the solar potential analysis based on urban 3D model
  • Prieto, Iñaki; Izkara, Jose Luis; Usobiaga, Elena
  • Seventh International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of the Environment (RSCy2019) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2531938
conference June 2019
A data mining approach to estimating rooftop photovoltaic potential in the US [Supplemental Data] dataset July 2018

Figures / Tables (11)

Figure 1(p. 3)figure Figure 1
Figure 2(p. 3)figure Figure 2
Table 1(p. 4)table Table 1
Table 2(p. 4)table Table 2
Figure 3(p. 5)figure Figure 3
Figure 4(p. 5)figure Figure 4
Figure 5(p. 6)figure Figure 5
Figure 6(p. 6)figure Figure 6
Table 3(p. 7)table Table 3
Figure 7(p. 8)figure Figure 7
Figure 8(p. 8)figure Figure 8

Similar Records

Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
rooftop PV
distributed
technical potential
lidar
GIS