Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model

Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael; Wang, Fuyao; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Wei, Yaxing

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0220.1

Title: Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract

Generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA) is a potentially valuable multivariate statistical tool for extracting vegetation feedbacks to the atmosphere in either observations or coupled Earth system models. The reliability of GEFA at capturing the terrestrial impacts on regional climate is demonstrated in this paper using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM), with focus on North Africa. The feedback is assessed statistically by applying GEFA to output from a fully coupled control run. To reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional or full GEFA is refined through stepwise GEFA by dropping unimportant forcings. Two ensembles of dynamical experiments are developed for the Sahel or West African monsoon region against which GEFA-based vegetation feedbacks are evaluated. In these dynamical experiments, regional leaf area index (LAI) is modified either alone or in conjunction with soil moisture, with the latter runs motivated by strong regional soil moisture–LAI coupling. Stepwise GEFA boasts higher consistency between statistically and dynamically assessed atmospheric responses to land surface anomalies than full GEFA, especially with short data records. GEFA-based atmospheric responses are more consistent with the coupled soil moisture–LAI experiments, indicating that GEFA is assessing the combined impacts of coupled vegetationmore »« less

Authors:

Yu, Yan ^[1]; Notaro, Michael ^[2]; Wang, Fuyao ^[2]; Mao, Jiafu ^[3]; Shi, Xiaoying ^[3]; Wei, Yaxing ^[3]

Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, and Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California
Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin
Environmental Sciences Division, and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

Publication Date:: 2018-02-01

Research Org.:: Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)

OSTI Identifier:: 1419613

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1422596

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012534; AC05-00OR22725; AGS-1343904

Resource Type:: Published Article

Journal Name:: Journal of Climate

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Volume: 31 Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological Society

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES; Africa; hydrology; statistical techniques; atmosphere-land interaction; vegetation-atmosphere interactions

Citation Formats


                    Yu, Yan, Notaro, Michael, Wang, Fuyao, Mao, Jiafu, Shi, Xiaoying, and Wei, Yaxing. Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
Web.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0220.1.

Copy to clipboard


                    Yu, Yan, Notaro, Michael, Wang, Fuyao, Mao, Jiafu, Shi, Xiaoying, & Wei, Yaxing. Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0220.1

Copy to clipboard


                    Yu, Yan, Notaro, Michael, Wang, Fuyao, Mao, Jiafu, Shi, Xiaoying, and Wei, Yaxing. Thu .  
"Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0220.1.

Copy to clipboard


                    
@article{osti_1419613,

  title        = {Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model},

  author       = {Yu, Yan and Notaro, Michael and Wang, Fuyao and Mao, Jiafu and Shi, Xiaoying and Wei, Yaxing},

  abstractNote = {Generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA) is a potentially valuable multivariate statistical tool for extracting vegetation feedbacks to the atmosphere in either observations or coupled Earth system models. The reliability of GEFA at capturing the terrestrial impacts on regional climate is demonstrated in this paper using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM), with focus on North Africa. The feedback is assessed statistically by applying GEFA to output from a fully coupled control run. To reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional or full GEFA is refined through stepwise GEFA by dropping unimportant forcings. Two ensembles of dynamical experiments are developed for the Sahel or West African monsoon region against which GEFA-based vegetation feedbacks are evaluated. In these dynamical experiments, regional leaf area index (LAI) is modified either alone or in conjunction with soil moisture, with the latter runs motivated by strong regional soil moisture–LAI coupling. Stepwise GEFA boasts higher consistency between statistically and dynamically assessed atmospheric responses to land surface anomalies than full GEFA, especially with short data records. GEFA-based atmospheric responses are more consistent with the coupled soil moisture–LAI experiments, indicating that GEFA is assessing the combined impacts of coupled vegetation and soil moisture. Finally, both the statistical and dynamical assessments reveal a negative vegetation–rainfall feedback in the Sahel associated with an atmospheric stability mechanism in CESM versus a weaker positive feedback in the West African monsoon region associated with a moisture recycling mechanism in CESM.},

  doi          = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0220.1},

  journal      = {Journal of Climate},

  number       = 4,

  volume       = 31,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {2018},

  month        = {2}

}

Copy to clipboard

Journal Article:

Free Publicly Available Full Text

Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0220.1

Other availability

Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 2 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Export Metadata

Save to My Library

Works referencing / citing this record:

Elucidating observed land surface feedbacks across sub-Saharan Africa
journal, March 2019

Notaro, Michael; Wang, Fuyao; Yu, Yan
Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 3-4
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04730-3

Observed land surface feedbacks on the Australian monsoon system
journal, February 2020

Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael
Climate Dynamics, Vol. 54, Issue 5-6
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05154-0

Influence of Central Siberian Snow‐Albedo Feedback on the Spring East Asian Dust Cycle and Connection With the Preceding Winter Arctic Oscillation
journal, December 2018

Liu, Heng; Liu, Xiaodong; Dong, Buwen
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 23
DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029385

Climatology of Asian dust activation and transport potential based on MISR satellite observations and trajectory analysis
journal, January 2019

Yu, Yan; Kalashnikova, Olga V.; Garay, Michael J.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 1
DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-363-2019

Similar Records in DOE PAGES and OSTI.GOV collections:

Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models

Technical Report Notaro, Michael ; Wang, Fuyao ; Yu, Yan ; ...

Hydrologic variability is a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Meanwhile, the scientific community struggles to attribute these extreme climatic episodes to specific oceanic and land drivers. Prior modeling studies have not assessed simulated feedbacks over North Africa against an established observational benchmark, so their results are considered as untested, model-specific findings. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) archive represents the state-of-the-art in climate projections, with most CMIP5 models now containing interactive vegetation phenology; however, there have been no studies to date of their simulated vegetation feedbacks. The capability of CMIP5 models at accurately simulatingmore »« less
https://doi.org/10.2172/1574103

Full Text Available
Projected changes in the terrestrial and oceanic regulators of climate variability across sub-Saharan Africa

Journal Article Notaro, Michael ; Wang, Fuyao ; Yu, Yan ; ... - Climate Dynamics

Future changes in the sign and intensity of ocean–land–atmosphere interactions have been insufficiently studied, despite implications for regional climate change projections, extreme event statistics, and seasonal climate predictability. In response to this deficiency, the present study focuses on projected responses to the enhanced greenhouse effect in: (1) the mean state of the atmosphere and land surface; (2) oceanic and terrestrial drivers of sub-Saharan climate variability; and (3) total seasonal climate predictability of sub-Saharan Africa, a region known for its pronounced land–atmosphere coupling. Analysis focuses on output from 23 Earth System Models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five formore »« less
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05308-0

Full Text Available
West African monsoon decadal variability and surface-related forcings: second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)

Journal Article Xue, Yongkang ; De Sales, Fernando ; Lau, William K. -M. ; ... - Climate Dynamics

The Sahel climate system had experienced one of the strongest interdecadal climate variabilities and the longest drought on the planet in the twentieth century. Most modeling studies on the decadal variability of the Sahel climate so far have focused on the role of anomalies in either sea surface temperature (SST), land surface processes, or aerosols concentration. The Second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II) is designed to improve understanding of the possible roles and feedback of SST, land use land cover change (LULCC), and aerosols forcings in the Sahel climate system at seasonal to decadal scales.more »« less
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3224-2
Influence of 21st century atmospheric and sea surface temperature forcing on West African climate

Journal Article Skinner, Chris B ; Ashfaq, Moetasim ; Diffenbaugh, Noah - Journal of Climate

he persistence of extended drought events throughout West Africa during the 20th century has motivated a substantial effort to understand the mechanisms driving African climate variability, as well as the possible response to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We use an ensemble of global climate model experiments to examine the relative roles of future direct atmospheric radiative forcing and SST forcing in shaping potential future changes in boreal summer precipitation over West Africa. We find that projected increases in precipitation throughout the Western Sahel result primarily from direct atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in atmospheric forcing generate a slight northwardmore »« less
Physical impacts of regional climate change in the West African Sahel and the question of desertification

Conference Nicholson, S E ; Ba, M

The question of desertification is examined in the West African Sahel region by considering various physical indicators assumed to accompany this process. The study considers only the past 14 years, since the availability of comprehensive satellite data sets. The physical indicators examined include vegetation cover, surface albedo, soil moisture, wind-borne dust, river flow, lakes, and the ratio of available moisture to vegetation growth. Vegetation cover and albedo are assessed from satellite data. Soil moisture is assessed using a surface hydrologic model. Dust is estimated from visibility measurements. The most important results are that: (1) there is no progressive change inmore »« less

Similar Records

Title: Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract

Citation Formats

Elucidating observed land surface feedbacks across sub-Saharan Africa journal, March 2019

Observed land surface feedbacks on the Australian monsoon system journal, February 2020

Influence of Central Siberian Snow‐Albedo Feedback on the Spring East Asian Dust Cycle and Connection With the Preceding Winter Arctic Oscillation journal, December 2018

Climatology of Asian dust activation and transport potential based on MISR satellite observations and trajectory analysis journal, January 2019

Elucidating observed land surface feedbacks across sub-Saharan Africa
journal, March 2019

Observed land surface feedbacks on the Australian monsoon system
journal, February 2020

Influence of Central Siberian Snow‐Albedo Feedback on the Spring East Asian Dust Cycle and Connection With the Preceding Winter Arctic Oscillation
journal, December 2018

Climatology of Asian dust activation and transport potential based on MISR satellite observations and trajectory analysis
journal, January 2019