Title: Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from Consumption of Alfalfa Sprouts and Evaluation of the Public Health Impact of Sprout Seed Treatment and Spent Irrigation Water Testing

Abstract

Abstract We developed a risk assessment of human salmonellosis associated with consumption of alfalfa sprouts in the United States to evaluate the public health impact of applying treatments to seeds (0–5‐log ₁₀ reduction in Salmonella ) and testing spent irrigation water (SIW) during production. The risk model considered variability and uncertainty in Salmonella contamination in seeds, Salmonella growth and spread during sprout production, sprout consumption, and Salmonella dose response. Based on an estimated prevalence of 2.35% for 6.8 kg seed batches and without interventions, the model predicted 76,600 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15,400 – 248,000) cases/year. Risk reduction (by 5 ‐ to 7‐fold) predicted from a 1‐log ₁₀ seed treatment alone was comparable to SIW testing alone, and each additional 1‐log ₁₀ seed treatment was predicted to provide a greater risk reduction than SIW testing. A 3‐log ₁₀ or a 5‐log ₁₀ seed treatment reduced the predicted cases/year to 139 (95% CI 33 – 448) or 1.4 (95% CI <1 – 4.5), respectively. Combined with SIW testing, a 3‐log ₁₀ or 5‐log ₁₀ seed treatment reduced the cases/year to 45 (95% CI 10–146) or <1 (95% CI <1 – 1.5), respectively. If the SIW coverage was less complete (i.e., lessmore » representative), a smaller risk reduction was predicted, e.g., a combined 3‐log ₁₀ seed treatment and SIW testing with 20% coverage resulted in an estimated 92 (95% CI 22 – 298) cases/year. Analysis of alternative scenarios using different assumptions for key model inputs showed that the predicted relative risk reductions are robust. This risk assessment provides a comprehensive approach for evaluating the public health impact of various interventions in a sprout production system.« less

Authors:

Chen, Yuhuan ^[1]; Pouillot, Régis ^[1]; Santillana Farakos, Sofia M. ^[1]; Duret, Steven ^[1]; Spungen, Judith ^[1]; Fu, Tong‐Jen ^[2]; Shakir, Fazila ^[1]; Homola, Patricia A. ^[1]; Dennis, Sherri ^[1]; Van Doren, Jane M. ^[1]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition U.S. Food and Drug Administration College Park MD USA
2. Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition U.S. Food and Drug Administration Bedford Park IL USA

Publication Date:

Tue Jan 16 00:00:00 EST 2018

Research Org.:

Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Biological Systems Science Division

OSTI Identifier:

1417121

Alternate Identifier(s):

OSTI ID: 1417122; OSTI ID: 1625932

Grant/Contract Number:  

SC0014664

Resource Type:

Published Article

Journal Name:

Risk Analysis

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Name: Risk Analysis Journal Volume: 38 Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 0272-4332

Publisher:

Wiley-Blackwell

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Interventions; pathogens in sprouts; risk assessment; seed treatment; spent irrigation water testing