skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Comparing Methods for Assessing Reliability Uncertainty Based on Pass/Fail Data Collected Over Time

Abstract

In this paper, we compare statistical methods for analyzing pass/fail data collected over time; some methods are traditional and one (the RADAR or Rationale for Assessing Degradation Arriving at Random) was recently developed. These methods are used to provide uncertainty bounds on reliability. We make observations about the methods' assumptions and properties. Finally, we illustrate the differences between two traditional methods, logistic regression and Weibull failure time analysis, and the RADAR method using a numerical example.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1416287
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-17-26696
Journal ID: ISSN 0898-2112; TRN: US1800898
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-06NA25396
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Quality Engineering
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 30; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0898-2112
Publisher:
American Society for Quality Control
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; Bayesian inference; left-censored; logistic regression; normal distribution; pass/fail data; probit regression; RADAR method; right-censored; Weibull distribution; zero-inflated failure time distribution

Citation Formats

Abes, Jeff I., Hamada, Michael S., and Hills, Charles R. Comparing Methods for Assessing Reliability Uncertainty Based on Pass/Fail Data Collected Over Time. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1080/08982112.2017.1417600.
Abes, Jeff I., Hamada, Michael S., & Hills, Charles R. Comparing Methods for Assessing Reliability Uncertainty Based on Pass/Fail Data Collected Over Time. United States. doi:10.1080/08982112.2017.1417600.
Abes, Jeff I., Hamada, Michael S., and Hills, Charles R. Wed . "Comparing Methods for Assessing Reliability Uncertainty Based on Pass/Fail Data Collected Over Time". United States. doi:10.1080/08982112.2017.1417600. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1416287.
@article{osti_1416287,
title = {Comparing Methods for Assessing Reliability Uncertainty Based on Pass/Fail Data Collected Over Time},
author = {Abes, Jeff I. and Hamada, Michael S. and Hills, Charles R.},
abstractNote = {In this paper, we compare statistical methods for analyzing pass/fail data collected over time; some methods are traditional and one (the RADAR or Rationale for Assessing Degradation Arriving at Random) was recently developed. These methods are used to provide uncertainty bounds on reliability. We make observations about the methods' assumptions and properties. Finally, we illustrate the differences between two traditional methods, logistic regression and Weibull failure time analysis, and the RADAR method using a numerical example.},
doi = {10.1080/08982112.2017.1417600},
journal = {Quality Engineering},
number = 4,
volume = 30,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {12}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: (a) 100 random reliability trajectories over 25 years from the RADAR prior distribution. (b) RADAR prior distribution of reliability πt 0.5, 0.25, 0.10 quantiles over 25 years as red solid, dotted and dashed lines, respectively. (Green solid line shows a reliability equal to 1.)

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Understanding the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm
journal, November 1995


Modeling the Reliability of Complex Systems with Multiple Data Sources: A Case Study on Making Statistical Tools Accessible to Engineers
journal, April 2012

  • Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Klamann, Richard M.; Morzinski, Jerome
  • Quality Engineering, Vol. 24, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1080/08982112.2012.641152

A Random Onset Model for Degradation of High-Reliability Systems
journal, May 2011


Warranty calculations for missiles with only current-status data, using Bayesian methods
conference, January 2001

  • Olwell, D. H.; Sorell, A. A.
  • Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2001 Proceedings. International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity (Cat. No.01CH37179)
  • DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2001.902455

    Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.