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Title: Evaluation of scenario-specific modeling approaches to predict plane of array solar irradiation

Abstract

Predicting thermal or electric power output from solar collectors requires knowledge of solar irradiance incident on the collector, known as plane of array irradiance. In the absence of such a measurement, plane of array irradiation can be predicted using relevant transposition models which essentially requires diffuse (or beam) radiation to be to be known along with total horizontal irradiation. The two main objectives of the current study are (1) to evaluate the extent to which the prediction of plane of array irradiance is improved when diffuse radiation is predicted using location-specific regression models developed from on-site measured data as against using generalized models; and (2) to estimate the expected uncertainties associated with plane of array irradiance predictions under different data collection scenarios likely to be encountered in practical situations. These issues have been investigated using monitored data for several U.S. locations in conjunction with the Typical Meteorological Year, version 3 database. An interesting behavior in the Typical Meteorological Year, version 3 data was also observed in correlation patterns between diffuse and total radiation taken from different years which seems to attest to a measurement problem. Furthermore, the current study was accomplished under a broader research agenda aimed at providing energymore » managers the necessary tools for predicting, scheduling, and controlling various sub-systems of an integrated energy system.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1414274
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-131212
Journal ID: ISSN 2374-4731; TRN: US1800680
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Science and Technology for the Built Environment
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 24; Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 2374-4731
Publisher:
Taylor & Francis
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; 14 SOLAR ENERGY

Citation Formats

Moslehi, Salim, Reddy, T. Agami, and Katipamula, Srinivas. Evaluation of scenario-specific modeling approaches to predict plane of array solar irradiation. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1080/23744731.2017.1406276.
Moslehi, Salim, Reddy, T. Agami, & Katipamula, Srinivas. Evaluation of scenario-specific modeling approaches to predict plane of array solar irradiation. United States. doi:10.1080/23744731.2017.1406276.
Moslehi, Salim, Reddy, T. Agami, and Katipamula, Srinivas. Wed . "Evaluation of scenario-specific modeling approaches to predict plane of array solar irradiation". United States. doi:10.1080/23744731.2017.1406276. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1414274.
@article{osti_1414274,
title = {Evaluation of scenario-specific modeling approaches to predict plane of array solar irradiation},
author = {Moslehi, Salim and Reddy, T. Agami and Katipamula, Srinivas},
abstractNote = {Predicting thermal or electric power output from solar collectors requires knowledge of solar irradiance incident on the collector, known as plane of array irradiance. In the absence of such a measurement, plane of array irradiation can be predicted using relevant transposition models which essentially requires diffuse (or beam) radiation to be to be known along with total horizontal irradiation. The two main objectives of the current study are (1) to evaluate the extent to which the prediction of plane of array irradiance is improved when diffuse radiation is predicted using location-specific regression models developed from on-site measured data as against using generalized models; and (2) to estimate the expected uncertainties associated with plane of array irradiance predictions under different data collection scenarios likely to be encountered in practical situations. These issues have been investigated using monitored data for several U.S. locations in conjunction with the Typical Meteorological Year, version 3 database. An interesting behavior in the Typical Meteorological Year, version 3 data was also observed in correlation patterns between diffuse and total radiation taken from different years which seems to attest to a measurement problem. Furthermore, the current study was accomplished under a broader research agenda aimed at providing energy managers the necessary tools for predicting, scheduling, and controlling various sub-systems of an integrated energy system.},
doi = {10.1080/23744731.2017.1406276},
journal = {Science and Technology for the Built Environment},
number = 7,
volume = 24,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {12}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Figures / Tables:

Table 1 Table 1: Comparison of annual regression models for predicting Idiff from measured data and from TMY data

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