Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation
- Authors:
-
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Geology and Geological Engineering Dept.
- United States Geological Survey, Los Alamos, NM (United States). Jemez Mountain Field Station
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1413486
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1430020; OSTI ID: 1549106
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-129507; LA-UR-17-31438
Journal ID: ISSN 0169-5347; PII: S0169534717302616
- Grant/Contract Number:
- WSC-1204787; AC05-76RL01830; AC52-06NA25396
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Trends in Ecology and Evolution
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 33; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0169-5347
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; disequilibrium; ecosystem theory; hydrology
Citation Formats
McDowell, Nate G., Michaletz, Sean T., Bennett, Katrina E., Solander, Kurt C., Xu, Chonggang, Maxwell, Reed M., Allen, Craig D., and Middleton, Richard S. Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1016/J.TREE.2017.10.002.
McDowell, Nate G., Michaletz, Sean T., Bennett, Katrina E., Solander, Kurt C., Xu, Chonggang, Maxwell, Reed M., Allen, Craig D., & Middleton, Richard S. Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.TREE.2017.10.002
McDowell, Nate G., Michaletz, Sean T., Bennett, Katrina E., Solander, Kurt C., Xu, Chonggang, Maxwell, Reed M., Allen, Craig D., and Middleton, Richard S. Mon .
"Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.TREE.2017.10.002. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1413486.
@article{osti_1413486,
title = {Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation},
author = {McDowell, Nate G. and Michaletz, Sean T. and Bennett, Katrina E. and Solander, Kurt C. and Xu, Chonggang and Maxwell, Reed M. and Allen, Craig D. and Middleton, Richard S.},
abstractNote = {},
doi = {10.1016/J.TREE.2017.10.002},
journal = {Trends in Ecology and Evolution},
number = 1,
volume = 33,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Nov 13 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Mon Nov 13 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Cited by: 67 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:
Figure 1: Figurative Representations of the Convergence of Increasing Temperature, Ecosystem Stress, Ecosystem Disequilibrium, and Human Population. (A)Increasing temperature results in an increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which is overlain by the natural variation in precipitation over time. (B)The increasing VPD and variation in precipitation from (A) translate into anmore »
All figures and tables
(3 total)
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes
journal, February 2014
- Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Mueller, Brigitte
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 3
On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene
journal, August 2015
- Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G.
- Ecosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 8
Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere
journal, June 2012
- Barnosky, Anthony D.; Hadly, Elizabeth A.; Bascompte, Jordi
- Nature, Vol. 486, Issue 7401
Boreal forest health and global change
journal, August 2015
- Gauthier, S.; Bernier, P.; Kuuluvainen, T.
- Science, Vol. 349, Issue 6250
Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance
journal, August 2015
- Millar, C. I.; Stephenson, N. L.
- Science, Vol. 349, Issue 6250
The near-term risk of climate uncertainty among the U.S. states
journal, June 2012
- Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas S.; Warren, Drake E.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 116, Issue 3-4
Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: From Evidence to a Predictive Framework
journal, August 2013
- Altizer, S.; Ostfeld, R. S.; Johnson, P. T. J.
- Science, Vol. 341, Issue 6145
Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria
journal, July 2014
- Gleick, Peter H.
- Weather, Climate, and Society, Vol. 6, Issue 3
A Method for Scaling Vegetation Dynamics: the Ecosystem Demography Model (ed)
journal, November 2001
- Moorcroft, P. R.; Hurtt, G. C.; Pacala, S. W.
- Ecological Monographs, Vol. 71, Issue 4
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012
- Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
Evaluating theories of drought-induced vegetation mortality using a multimodel-experiment framework
journal, September 2013
- McDowell, Nate G.; Fisher, Rosie A.; Xu, Chonggang
- New Phytologist, Vol. 200, Issue 2
Taking off the training wheels: the properties of a dynamic vegetation model without climate envelopes, CLM4.5(ED)
journal, January 2015
- Fisher, R. A.; Muszala, S.; Verteinstein, M.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 11
Statistical Downscaling Using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA)
journal, December 2014
- Pierce, David W.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Thrasher, Bridget L.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Issue 6
Hydrological effects of forest transpiration loss in bark beetle-impacted watersheds
journal, April 2014
- Bearup, Lindsay A.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Clow, David W.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 6
The effects of climate change and extreme wildfire events on runoff erosion over a mountain watershed
journal, May 2016
- Gould, Gregory K.; Liu, Mingliang; Barber, Michael E.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 536
Influences of vegetation disturbance on hydrogeomorphic response following wildfire: Vegetation Disturbance Influences Post-fire Erosion
journal, November 2015
- Hyde, Kevin D.; Jencso, Kelsey; Wilcox, Andrew C.
- Hydrological Processes, Vol. 30, Issue 7
Connections between groundwater flow and transpiration partitioning
journal, July 2016
- Maxwell, R. M.; Condon, L. E.
- Science, Vol. 353, Issue 6297
Climate Change and Forests of the Future: Managing in the face of Uncertainty
journal, December 2007
- Millar, Constance I.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Stephens, Scott L.
- Ecological Applications, Vol. 17, Issue 8
Climate change and urban resilience
journal, May 2011
- Leichenko, Robin
- Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol. 3, Issue 3
Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality
journal, September 2012
- Park Williams, A.; Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, Alison K.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 3
Changing temperatures influence suitability for modeled mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ) outbreaks in the western United States: CLIMATE CHANGE AND INSECT OUTBREAKS
journal, June 2006
- Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Logan, Jesse A.; Powell, James
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 111, Issue G2
Changes in precipitation with climate change
journal, March 2011
- Trenberth, Ke
- Climate Research, Vol. 47, Issue 1
The ratio of land to ocean temperature change under global warming
journal, June 2011
- Boer, G. J.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 37, Issue 11-12
Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink
journal, March 2015
- Brienen, R. J. W.; Phillips, O. L.; Feldpausch, T. R.
- Nature, Vol. 519, Issue 7543
Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise
journal, December 2015
- McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 3
Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage
journal, March 2015
- Anderegg, William R. L.; Flint, Alan; Huang, Cho-ying
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 5
Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009)
journal, January 2010
- van der Werf, G. R.; Randerson, J. T.; Giglio, L.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 10, Issue 23
Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage
journal, August 2014
- Seidl, Rupert; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Rammer, Werner
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 9
Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century
journal, July 2011
- Westerling, Anthony L.; Turner, Monica G.; Smithwick, Erica A. H.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, Issue 32
Global warming and changes in drought
journal, December 2013
- Trenberth, Kevin E.; Dai, Aiguo; van der Schrier, Gerard
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 1
Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming
journal, May 2015
- McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 7
Fire-Southern Oscillation Relations in the Southwestern United States
journal, August 1990
- Swetnam, T. W.; Betancourt, J. L.
- Science, Vol. 249, Issue 4972
The interdependence of mechanisms underlying climate-driven vegetation mortality
journal, October 2011
- McDowell, Nate G.; Beerling, David J.; Breshears, David D.
- Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 26, Issue 10
Trends Expected in Stressed Ecosystems
journal, July 1985
- Odum, Eugene P.
- BioScience, Vol. 35, Issue 7
Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought
journal, April 2009
- Adams, Henry D.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 17
Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments
journal, August 2012
- Lenton, Timothy M.; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos
- Climatic Change, Vol. 117, Issue 3
Dynamic plant ecology: the spectrum of vegetational change in space and time
journal, January 1982
- Delcourt, Hazel R.; Delcourt, Paul A.; Webb, Thompson
- Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 1, Issue 3
Responses of plant populations and communities to environmental changes of the late Quaternary
journal, December 2000
- Jackson, Stephen T.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.
- Paleobiology, Vol. 26, Issue sp4
Role of Multidecadal Climate Variability in a Range Extension of Pinyon pine
journal, May 2006
- Gray, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Jackson, Stephen T.
- Ecology, Vol. 87, Issue 5
Extended megadroughts in the southwestern United States during Pleistocene interglacials
journal, February 2011
- Fawcett, Peter J.; Werne, Josef P.; Anderson, R. Scott
- Nature, Vol. 470, Issue 7335
Multi-decadal drought and amplified moisture variability drove rapid forest community change in a humid region
journal, February 2012
- Booth, Robert K.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Sousa, Valerie A.
- Ecology, Vol. 93, Issue 2
Reconstructing Disturbances and Their Biogeochemical Consequences over Multiple Timescales
journal, January 2014
- McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Higuera, Philip E.; Gavin, Daniel G.
- BioScience, Vol. 64, Issue 2
Community ecology in a changing environment: Perspectives from the Quaternary
journal, April 2015
- Jackson, Stephen T.; Blois, Jessica L.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 16
Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation
journal, December 1998
- Allen, C. D.; Breshears, D. D.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 95, Issue 25
Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises
journal, November 2007
- Williams, John W.; Jackson, Stephen T.
- Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 5, Issue 9
Early-warning signals for critical transitions
journal, September 2009
- Scheffer, Marten; Bascompte, Jordi; Brock, William A.
- Nature, Vol. 461, Issue 7260
From patterns to predictions
journal, January 2013
- Boettiger, Carl; Hastings, Alan
- Nature, Vol. 493, Issue 7431
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system
journal, March 2009
- Kriegler, E.; Hall, J. W.; Held, H.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 13
Influence of tree species on continental differences in boreal fires and climate feedbacks
journal, February 2015
- Rogers, Brendan M.; Soja, Amber J.; Goulden, Michael L.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 3
Effects of biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling in the United States and Canada
journal, October 2011
- Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Allen, Craig D.; Desai, Ankur R.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 18, Issue 1
Growth, carbon-isotope discrimination, and drought-associated mortality across a Pinus ponderosa elevational transect: CHRONIC WATER STRESS AND PONDEROSA PINE MORTALITY
journal, January 2010
- McDOWELL, Nate G.; Allen, Craig D.; Marshall, Laura
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 16, Issue 1
The increasing importance of atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes
journal, September 2016
- Novick, Kimberly A.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Stoy, Paul C.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 11
Downscaling Extremes—An Intercomparison of Multiple Statistical Methods for Present Climate
journal, June 2012
- Bürger, G.; Murdock, T. Q.; Werner, A. T.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 12
Predicting climate change effects on wildfires requires linking processes across scales: Prediction of climate change effects on wildfires
journal, December 2010
- Macias Fauria, Marc; Michaletz, Sean T.; Johnson, Edward A.
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 1
The status and challenge of global fire modelling
journal, January 2016
- Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, Issue 11
Climate Change and Bark Beetles of the Western United States and Canada: Direct and Indirect Effects
journal, September 2010
- Bentz, Barbara J.; Régnière, Jacques; Fettig, Christopher J.
- BioScience, Vol. 60, Issue 8
An Observational and Modeling Study of Impacts of Bark Beetle–Caused Tree Mortality on Surface Energy and Hydrological Cycles
journal, April 2015
- Chen, Fei; Zhang, Guo; Barlage, Michael
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 16, Issue 2
Bark beetle infestation impacts on nutrient cycling, water quality and interdependent hydrological effects
journal, June 2013
- Mikkelson, Kristin M.; Bearup, Lindsay A.; Maxwell, Reed M.
- Biogeochemistry, Vol. 115, Issue 1-3
Decreased streamflow in semi-arid basins following drought-induced tree die-off: A counter-intuitive and indirect climate impact on hydrology
journal, September 2011
- Guardiola-Claramonte, M.; Troch, Peter A.; Breshears, David D.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 406, Issue 3-4
Ecohydrological consequences of drought- and infestation- triggered tree die-off: insights and hypotheses
journal, August 2011
- Adams, Henry D.; Luce, Charles H.; Breshears, David D.
- Ecohydrology, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Recent tree die-off has little effect on streamflow in contrast to expected increases from historical studies: MUTED STREAMFLOW RESPONSES TO TREE DIE-OFF
journal, December 2015
- Biederman, Joel A.; Somor, Andrew J.; Harpold, Adrian A.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 51, Issue 12
Numerical experiments to explain multiscale hydrological responses to mountain pine beetle tree mortality in a headwater watershed: MODELED MULTI-SCALE RESPONSE OF A BEETLE-IMPACTED WATERSHED
journal, April 2016
- Penn, Colin A.; Bearup, Lindsay A.; Maxwell, Reed M.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 52, Issue 4
Predicting sediment delivery from debris flows after wildfire
journal, December 2015
- Nyman, Petter; Smith, Hugh G.; Sherwin, Christopher B.
- Geomorphology, Vol. 250
Risk assessment of post-wildfire hydrological response in semiarid basins: the effects of varying rainfall representations in the KINEROS2/AGWA model
journal, January 2016
- Sidman, Gabriel; Guertin, D. Phillip; Goodrich, David C.
- International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 25, Issue 3
Regime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in Ecosystem Management
journal, December 2004
- Folke, Carl; Carpenter, Steve; Walker, Brian
- Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Vol. 35, Issue 1
How forest fires kill trees: A review of the fundamental biophysical processes
journal, December 2007
- Michaletz, Sean T.; Johnson, Edward A.
- Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, Vol. 22, Issue 6
Effects of Logging, Drought, and Fire on Structure and Composition of Tropical Forests in Sabah, Malaysia
journal, December 1989
- Woods, Paul
- Biotropica, Vol. 21, Issue 4
Tree die-off in response to global change-type drought: mortality insights from a decade of plant water potential measurements
journal, May 2009
- Breshears, David D.; Myers, Orrin B.; Meyer, Clifton W.
- Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 7, Issue 4
Convergence of terrestrial plant production across global climate gradients
journal, July 2014
- Michaletz, Sean T.; Cheng, Dongliang; Kerkhoff, Andrew J.
- Nature, Vol. 512, Issue 7512
A biophysical process model of tree mortality in surface fires
journal, July 2008
- Michaletz, S. T.; Johnson, E. A.
- Canadian Journal of Forest Research, Vol. 38, Issue 7
Larger trees suffer most during drought in forests worldwide
journal, September 2015
- Bennett, Amy C.; McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.
- Nature Plants, Vol. 1, Issue 10
Moving beyond the cambium necrosis hypothesis of post-fire tree mortality: cavitation and deformation of xylem in forest fires
journal, January 2012
- Michaletz, S. T.; Johnson, E. A.; Tyree, M. T.
- New Phytologist, Vol. 194, Issue 1
Works referencing / citing this record:
Contrasting resistance and resilience to extreme drought and late spring frost in five major European tree species
journal, September 2019
- Vitasse, Yann; Bottero, Alessandra; Cailleret, Maxime
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, Issue 11
Evaluating the kinetic basis of plant growth from organs to ecosystems
journal, February 2018
- Michaletz, Sean T.
- New Phytologist, Vol. 219, Issue 1
Drought and the interannual variability of stem growth in an aseasonal, everwet forest
journal, February 2019
- Hogan, J. Aaron; McMahon, Sean M.; Buzzard, Vanessa
- Biotropica, Vol. 51, Issue 2
Lagged mortality among tree species four years after an exceptional drought in east Texas
journal, October 2018
- Klockow, Paul A.; Vogel, Jason G.; Edgar, Christopher B.
- Ecosphere, Vol. 9, Issue 10
The Survival of Pinus ponderosa Saplings Subjected to Increasing Levels of Fire Behavior and Impacts on Post-Fire Growth
journal, May 2019
- Steady, Wade D.; Partelli Feltrin, Raquel; Johnson, Daniel M.
- Fire, Vol. 2, Issue 2
Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River
journal, January 2018
- Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 22, Issue 1
The relationship of woody plant size and leaf nutrient content to large‐scale productivity for forests across the Americas
journal, April 2019
- Šímová, Irena; Sandel, Brody; Enquist, Brian J.
- Journal of Ecology, Vol. 107, Issue 5
The synergy between climate change and transportation activities drives the propagation of an invasive fruit fly
journal, January 2020
- Zhao, Zihua; Reddy, Gadi V. P.; Chen, Lei
- Journal of Pest Science, Vol. 93, Issue 2
The megabiota are disproportionately important for biosphere functioning
journal, February 2020
- Enquist, Brian J.; Abraham, Andrew J.; Harfoot, Michael B. J.
- Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1
A theory of pulse dynamics and disturbance in ecology
journal, March 2019
- Jentsch, Anke; White, Peter
- Ecology, Vol. 100, Issue 7
Plant height and hydraulic vulnerability to drought and cold
journal, July 2018
- Olson, Mark E.; Soriano, Diana; Rosell, Julieta A.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 29
Changes in Climate and Land Cover Affect Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Rio Grande Headwaters
journal, June 2020
- Penn, Colin A.; Clow, David W.; Sexstone, Graham A.
- JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association
Advances in Mechanistic Approaches to Quantifying Biophysical Fire Effects
journal, September 2018
- O’Brien, J. J.; Hiers, J. K.; Varner, J. M.
- Current Forestry Reports, Vol. 4, Issue 4
A theory of pulse dynamics and disturbance in ecology
journal, March 2019
- Jentsch, Anke; White, Peter
- Ecology, Vol. 100, Issue 7
Post-drought Resilience After Forest Die-Off: Shifts in Regeneration, Composition, Growth and Productivity
journal, October 2018
- Gazol, Antonio; Camarero, J. Julio; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel
- Frontiers in Plant Science, Vol. 9
Figures / Tables found in this record:
Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.