Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming
Abstract
For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. By using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. Here, we show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. Our results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.
- Authors:
-
[2];
- Met Office Hadley Cenre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). NCAS-Climate
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC). Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1412863
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-17-27602
Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth Sciences; climate and earth system modelling; projection and prediction
Citation Formats
Good, Peter, Booth, Ben B. B., Chadwick, Robin, Hawkins, Ed, Jonko, Alexandra, and Lowe, Jason A. Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1038/ncomms13667.
Good, Peter, Booth, Ben B. B., Chadwick, Robin, Hawkins, Ed, Jonko, Alexandra, & Lowe, Jason A. Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13667
Good, Peter, Booth, Ben B. B., Chadwick, Robin, Hawkins, Ed, Jonko, Alexandra, and Lowe, Jason A. Tue .
"Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13667. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1412863.
@article{osti_1412863,
title = {Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming},
author = {Good, Peter and Booth, Ben B. B. and Chadwick, Robin and Hawkins, Ed and Jonko, Alexandra and Lowe, Jason A.},
abstractNote = {For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. By using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. Here, we show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. Our results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms13667},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = ,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Dec 06 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Tue Dec 06 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}
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