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Title: SWMF Global Magnetosphere Simulations of January 2005: Geomagnetic Indices and Cross-Polar Cap Potential

We simulated the entire month of January, 2005 using the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) with observed solar wind data as input. We conducted this simulation with and without an inner magnetosphere model, and tested two different grid resolutions. We evaluated the model's accuracy in predicting Kp, Sym-H, AL, and cross polar cap potential (CPCP). We find that the model does an excellent job of predicting the Sym-H index, with an RMSE of 17-18 nT. Kp is predicted well during storm-time conditions, but over-predicted during quiet times by a margin of 1 to 1.7 Kp units. AL is predicted reasonably well on average, with an RMSE of 230-270 nT. However, the model reaches the largest negative AL values significantly less often than the observations. The model tended to over-predict CPCP, with RMSE values on the order of 46-48 kV. We found the results to be insensitive to grid resoution, with the exception of the rate of occurrence for strongly negative AL values. As a result, the use of the inner magnetosphere component, however, affected results significantly, with all quantities except CPCP improved notably when the inner magnetosphere model was on.
Authors:
 [1] ; ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [2] ; ORCiD logo [3] ;  [1]
  1. Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
  2. Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (Finland)
  3. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-17-29884
Journal ID: ISSN 1542-7390
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Space Weather
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 15; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 1542-7390
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Research Org:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Heliospheric and Magnetospheric Physics
OSTI Identifier:
1410625