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Title: Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.
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  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397
Grant/Contract Number:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Water Resources Research
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 54; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Research Org:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
Country of Publication:
United States
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth Sciences; sensitivity; modeling; hydrology; climate change; Colorado River Basin; resource management
OSTI Identifier: