Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models
- Authors:
-
[1];
- Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM USA
- Department of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St Paul MN USA
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); LANL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1410367
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1410368; OSTI ID: 1412886; OSTI ID: 1413516
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-16-28400; PNNL-SA-129909
Journal ID: ISSN 2045-7758
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396; AC05-76RL01830; XWDM00
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Ecology and Evolution
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Ecology and Evolution; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-7758
- Publisher:
- Wiley
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth Sciences; Bark beetle, difference equation, individual based model, integral projection model, mountain pine beetle, phenology, size-structured
Citation Formats
Goodsman, Devin W., Aukema, Brian H., McDowell, Nate G., Middleton, Richard S., and Xu, Chonggang. Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models. United Kingdom: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1002/ece3.3590.
Goodsman, Devin W., Aukema, Brian H., McDowell, Nate G., Middleton, Richard S., & Xu, Chonggang. Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3590
Goodsman, Devin W., Aukema, Brian H., McDowell, Nate G., Middleton, Richard S., and Xu, Chonggang. Sun .
"Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3590.
@article{osti_1410367,
title = {Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models},
author = {Goodsman, Devin W. and Aukema, Brian H. and McDowell, Nate G. and Middleton, Richard S. and Xu, Chonggang},
abstractNote = {},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.3590},
journal = {Ecology and Evolution},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Sun Nov 26 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Sun Nov 26 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3590
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3590
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 8 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:
FIGURE 1: An adult mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) photographed under a light microscope. The adult mountain pine beetle is about the length of a grain of rice. Photograph credit: Devin W. Goodsman
All figures and tables
(6 total)
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Cross-scale Drivers of Natural Disturbances Prone to Anthropogenic Amplification: The Dynamics of Bark Beetle Eruptions
journal, June 2008
- Raffa, Kenneth F.; Aukema, Brian H.; Bentz, Barbara J.
- BioScience, Vol. 58, Issue 6
Connecting phenological predictions with population growth rates for mountain pine beetle, an outbreak insect
journal, April 2009
- Powell, James A.; Bentz, Barbara J.
- Landscape Ecology, Vol. 24, Issue 5
Model Analysis of Spatial Patterns in Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks
journal, June 1998
- Logan, Jesse A.; White, Peter; Bentz, Barbara J.
- Theoretical Population Biology, Vol. 53, Issue 3
Movement of outbreak populations of mountain pine beetle: influences of spatiotemporal patterns and climate
journal, June 2008
- Aukema, Brian H.; Carroll, Allan L.; Zheng, Yanbing
- Ecography, Vol. 31, Issue 3
Factors Influencing Flight Capacity of the Mountain Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae)
journal, February 2014
- Evenden, M. L.; Whitehouse, C. M.; Sykes, J.
- Environmental Entomology, Vol. 43, Issue 1
Comparison of three models predicting developmental milestones given environmental and individual variation
journal, November 2004
- Gilbert, E.; Powell, J.; Logan, J.
- Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, Vol. 66, Issue 6
Base temperature for the application of the growing-degree-day model to field-grown alfalfa
journal, July 1989
- Sharratt, B. S.; Sheaffer, C. C.; Baker, D. G.
- Field Crops Research, Vol. 21, Issue 2
Dynamic Life Table Model for Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): Analysis of the Literature and Model Development
journal, November 1993
- Focks, D. A.; Haile, D. G.; Daniels, E.
- Journal of Medical Entomology, Vol. 30, Issue 6
Dynamic heterogeneity in life histories
journal, January 2009
- Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Steiner, Ulrich K.; Orzack, Steven Hecht
- Ecology Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 1
From Stage to age in Variable Environments: life Expectancy and Survivorship
journal, June 2006
- Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Horvitz, Carol C.
- Ecology, Vol. 87, Issue 6
Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species
journal, May 2008
- Tobin, Patrick C.; Nagarkatti, Sudha; Loeb, Greg
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 14, Issue 5
Evolution of size–dependent flowering in a variable environment: construction and analysis of a stochastic integral projection model
journal, February 2004
- Childs, Dylan Z.; Rees, Mark; Rose, Karen E.
- Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 271, Issue 1537
Cold Hardiness of Two Species of Bark Beetles in California Forests
journal, October 1941
- Yuill, J. S.
- Journal of Economic Entomology, Vol. 34, Issue 5
Non-linear regression of biological temperature-dependent rate models based on absolute reaction-rate theory
journal, February 1981
- Schoolfield, R. M.; Sharpe, P. J. H.; Magnuson, C. E.
- Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 88, Issue 4
On the use of Matrices in Certain Population Mathematics
journal, January 1945
- Leslie, P. H.
- Biometrika, Vol. 33, Issue 3
Skeeter Buster: A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Modeling Tool for Studying Aedes aegypti Population Replacement and Population Suppression Strategies
journal, September 2009
- Magori, Krisztian; Legros, Mathieu; Puente, Molly E.
- PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol. 3, Issue 9
An algorithm for computing the mixed radix fast Fourier transform
journal, June 1969
- Singleton, R.
- IEEE Transactions on Audio and Electroacoustics, Vol. 17, Issue 2
Temperature-Dependent Development of the Mountain pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) and Simulation of its Phenology
journal, October 1991
- Bentz, Barbara J.; Logan, Jesse A.; Amman, Gene D.
- The Canadian Entomologist, Vol. 123, Issue 5
Some Further Notes on the use of Matrices in Population Mathematics
journal, January 1948
- Leslie, P. H.
- Biometrika, Vol. 35, Issue 3-4
Integral Projection Models for Species with Complex Demography
journal, March 2006
- Ellner, Stephen P.; Rees, Mark
- The American Naturalist, Vol. 167, Issue 3
Des différences, pourquoi? Transmission, maintenance and effects of phenotypic variance
journal, February 2016
- Plard, Floriane; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Coulson, Tim
- Journal of Animal Ecology, Vol. 85, Issue 2
Individual-Based Modeling: Mountain Pine Beetle Seasonal Biology in Response to Climate
book, January 2015
- Régnière, Jacques; Bentz, Barbara J.; Powell, Jim A.
- Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances
Ghost Forests, Global Warming, and the Mountain Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)
journal, January 2001
- Logan, Jesse A.; Powell, James A.
- American Entomologist, Vol. 47, Issue 3
The ecological and evolutionary significance of frost in the context of climate change
journal, September 2000
- Inouye, D. W.
- Ecology Letters, Vol. 3, Issue 5
Using phenology prediction in weed management: a review
journal, December 1995
- Ghersa, C. M.; Holt, J. S.
- Weed Research, Vol. 35, Issue 6
Principles of Insect Low Temperature Tolerance
book, January 1991
- Lee, Richard E.
- Insects at Low Temperature
Aggregation and a strong Allee effect in a cooperative outbreak insect
journal, November 2016
- Goodsman, D. W.; Koch, D.; Whitehouse, C.
- Ecological Applications, Vol. 26, Issue 8
A Comparison of Mountain Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) Productivity and Survival in Lodgepole and Whitebark Pine after a Region-Wide Cold Weather Event
journal, April 2015
- Dooley, Edith M.; Six, Diana L.; Powell, James A.
- Forest Science, Vol. 61, Issue 2
Reaction kinetics of poikilotherm development
journal, February 1977
- Sharpe, Peter J. H.; DeMichele, Don W.
- Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 64, Issue 4
Model Analysis of Mountain Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) Seasonality
journal, December 1999
- Logan, Jesse A.; Bentz, Barbara J.
- Environmental Entomology, Vol. 28, Issue 6
Climate change could alter the distribution of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in western Canada
journal, March 2012
- Sambaraju, Kishan R.; Carroll, Allan L.; Zhu, Jun
- Ecography, Vol. 35, Issue 3
Ecology of Mountain Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) Cold Hardening in the Intermountain West
journal, August 1999
- Bentz, B. J.; Mullins, D. E.
- Environmental Entomology, Vol. 28, Issue 4
Stochastic stable population growth in integral projection models: theory and application
journal, November 2006
- Ellner, Stephen P.; Rees, Mark
- Journal of Mathematical Biology, Vol. 54, Issue 2
Stochastic Phenology Model for the Western Spruce Budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)
journal, June 1986
- Kemp, William P.; Dennis, Brian; Beckwith, Roy C.
- Environmental Entomology, Vol. 15, Issue 3
Stochastic Model of Insect Phenology: Estimation and Testing
journal, June 1986
- Dennis, Brian; Kemp, William P.; Beckwith, Roy C.
- Environmental Entomology, Vol. 15, Issue 3
Modeling Distributions of Insect Development Time: a Literature Review and Application of the Weibull Function
journal, September 1984
- Wagner, Terence L.; Wu, Hsin-I; Sharpe, Peter J. H.
- Annals of the Entomological Society of America, Vol. 77, Issue 5
Integral projection models for populations in temporally varying environments
journal, November 2009
- Rees, Mark; Ellner, Stephen P.
- Ecological Monographs, Vol. 79, Issue 4
The Dynamics of a Quantitative Trait in an Age‐Structured Population Living in a Variable Environment
journal, November 2008
- Coulson, Tim; Tuljapurkar, Shripad
- The American Naturalist, Vol. 172, Issue 5
Metabolic approaches to understanding climate change impacts on seasonal host-macroparasite dynamics
journal, November 2012
- Molnár, Péter K.; Kutz, Susan J.; Hoar, Bryanne M.
- Ecology Letters, Vol. 16, Issue 1
Potential for range expansion of mountain pine beetle into the boreal forest of North America
journal, October 2010
- Safranyik, L.; Carroll, A. L.; Régnière, J.
- The Canadian Entomologist, Vol. 142, Issue 5
Using evolutionary demography to link life history theory, quantitative genetics and population ecology: Unification
journal, August 2010
- Coulson, Tim; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Childs, Dylan Z.
- Journal of Animal Ecology, Vol. 79, Issue 6
Toward an Expert System for Development of Pest Simulation Models
journal, April 1988
- Logan, Jesse A.
- Environmental Entomology, Vol. 17, Issue 2
Effects of temperature on development, survival and reproduction of insects: Experimental design, data analysis and modeling
journal, May 2012
- Régnière, Jacques; Powell, James; Bentz, Barbara
- Journal of Insect Physiology, Vol. 58, Issue 5
Mountain Pine Beetle Seasonal Timing and Constraints to Bivoltinism: (A Comment on Mitton and Ferrenberg, “Mountain Pine Beetle Develops an Unprecedented Summer Generation in Response to Climate Warming”)
journal, December 2014
- Bentz, Barbara J.; Powell, James A.
- The American Naturalist, Vol. 184, Issue 6
Climatology of winter cold spells in relation to mountain pine beetle mortality in British Columbia, Canada
journal, August 2006
- Stahl, K.; Moore, Rd; McKendry, Ig
- Climate Research, Vol. 32
Stochastic development in biologically structured population models
journal, October 2009
- de Valpine, Perry
- Ecology, Vol. 90, Issue 10
Predicting insect distributions under climate change from physiological responses: spruce budworm as an example
journal, December 2010
- Régnière, Jacques; St-Amant, Rémi; Duval, Pierre
- Biological Invasions, Vol. 14, Issue 8
Temperature Limits of Flight of the Mountain Pine Beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae1
journal, March 1971
- McCambridge, W. F.
- Annals of the Entomological Society of America, Vol. 64, Issue 2
A Simulation Model of the Epidemiology of Urban Dengue Fever: Literature Analysis, Model Development, Preliminary Validation, and Samples of Simulation Results
journal, November 1995
- Focks, Dana A.; Daniels, Eric; Haile, Dan G.
- The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 53, Issue 5
Modelling micro-habitat temperature for Dendroctonus ponderosae (coleoptera: scolytidae)
journal, January 1997
- Bolstad, Paul V.; Bentz, Barbara J.; Logan, Jesse A.
- Ecological Modelling, Vol. 94, Issue 2-3
Day-Degree Methods for Pest Management1
journal, June 1983
- Pruess, Kenneth P.
- Environmental Entomology, Vol. 12, Issue 3
Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations
journal, July 2011
- Legros, Mathieu; Magori, Krisztian; Morrison, Amy C.
- PLoS ONE, Vol. 6, Issue 7
Animal Life Cycle Models (Poikilotherms)
book, January 2013
- Régnière, Jacques; Powell, James A.
- Phenology: An Integrative Environmental Science
Shifting plant phenology in response to global change
journal, July 2007
- Cleland, E.; Chuine, I.; Menzel, A.
- Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 22, Issue 7
Climate Change and Bark Beetles of the Western United States and Canada: Direct and Indirect Effects
journal, September 2010
- Bentz, Barbara J.; Régnière, Jacques; Fettig, Christopher J.
- BioScience, Vol. 60, Issue 8
Figures / Tables found in this record:
Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.