Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate
Abstract
The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several physics-based numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics has not been investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are obtained without clarity on their interpretation. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering wisdom and modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is improved and applied to outputs from an ensemble of five CMIP5 models. This hybrid approach is applied in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) to produce ensemble PMP estimation for the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The new historical PMP estimates are verified by comparing them with the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50% of the current level by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability, with minormore »
- Authors:
-
- Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Atmospheric Science and Global Change Div. (ASGC)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1439698
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1410356
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-126184
Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397; KP1703010
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Water Resources Research
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 53; Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Extreme storms; infrastructure; climate change; probable maximum precipitaion
Citation Formats
Chen, Xiaodong, Hossain, Faisal, and Leung, L. Ruby. Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1002/2017WR021094.
Chen, Xiaodong, Hossain, Faisal, & Leung, L. Ruby. Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021094
Chen, Xiaodong, Hossain, Faisal, and Leung, L. Ruby. Fri .
"Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021094. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1439698.
@article{osti_1439698,
title = {Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate},
author = {Chen, Xiaodong and Hossain, Faisal and Leung, L. Ruby},
abstractNote = {The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several physics-based numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics has not been investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are obtained without clarity on their interpretation. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering wisdom and modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is improved and applied to outputs from an ensemble of five CMIP5 models. This hybrid approach is applied in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) to produce ensemble PMP estimation for the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The new historical PMP estimates are verified by comparing them with the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50% of the current level by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability, with minor contributions from changes in storm efficiency in the future. Moist track change tends to reduce the future PMP. Compared with extreme precipitation, ensemble PMP exhibits higher internal variation. Thus high-quality data of both precipitation and related meteorological fields (temperature, wind fields) are required to reduce uncertainties in the ensemble PMP estimates.},
doi = {10.1002/2017WR021094},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
number = 11,
volume = 53,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Nov 03 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Fri Nov 03 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
A Multiscale Observational Case Study of a Pacific Atmospheric River Exhibiting Tropical–Extratropical Connections and a Mesoscale Frontal Wave
journal, April 2011
- Ralph, F. Martin; Neiman, Paul J.; Kiladis, George N.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 139, Issue 4
A numerical modeling study to investigate the assumptions used in the calculation of probable maximum precipitation
journal, March 1999
- Abbs, Deborah J.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 35, Issue 3
A Statistical-Topographic Model for Mapping Climatological Precipitation over Mountainous Terrain
journal, February 1994
- Daly, Christopher; Neilson, Ronald P.; Phillips, Donald L.
- Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 33, Issue 2
Guidelines for constructing climate scenarios
journal, July 2011
- Mote, Philip; Brekke, Levi; Duffy, Philip B.
- Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 92, Issue 31
Spatial downscaling of precipitation using adaptable random forests: SPATIAL PRECIPITATION DOWNSCALING
journal, October 2016
- He, Xiaogang; Chaney, Nathaniel W.; Schleiss, Marc
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 52, Issue 10
A new global river network database for macroscale hydrologic modeling: DATA AND ANALYSIS NOTE
journal, September 2012
- Wu, Huan; Kimball, John S.; Li, Hongyi
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 48, Issue 9
Inline Coupling of WRF–HYSPLIT: Model Development and Evaluation Using Tracer Experiments
journal, June 2015
- Ngan, Fong; Stein, Ariel; Draxler, Roland
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 54, Issue 6
Evaluation of the Transfer Coefficient Matrix (TCM) approach to model the atmospheric radionuclide air concentrations from Fukushima: MODELING RADIONUCLIDES FROM FUKUSHIMA
journal, March 2012
- Draxler, Roland R.; Rolph, Glenn D.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D5
Climate Feedback–Based Provisions for Dam Design, Operations, and Water Management in the 21st Century
journal, August 2012
- Hossain, Faisal; Degu, Ahmed M.; Yigzaw, Wondmagegn
- Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 17, Issue 8
Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain
journal, July 2013
- Lavers, David A.; Allan, Richard P.; Villarini, Gabriele
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 3
Uncertainty analysis for Probable Maximum Precipitation estimates
journal, February 2015
- Micovic, Zoran; Schaefer, Melvin G.; Taylor, George H.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 521
Quantifying climate change impacts on hydropower generation and implications on electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and operation
journal, September 2016
- Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Samuelsen, Scott
- Energy, Vol. 111
Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures
journal, February 2013
- Berg, Peter; Moseley, Christopher; Haerter, Jan O.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 6, Issue 3
The robust dynamical contribution to precipitation extremes in idealized warming simulations across model resolutions: Lu et al.: Dynamic effect on precipitation extreme
journal, April 2014
- Lu, Jian; Ruby Leung, L.; Yang, Qing
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 8
On the origin and destination of atmospheric moisture and air mass over the Tibetan Plateau
journal, April 2012
- Chen, Bin; Xu, Xiang-De; Yang, Shuai
- Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 110, Issue 3
Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface Temperature
journal, November 2007
- Reynolds, Richard W.; Smith, Thomas M.; Liu, Chunying
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 22
Origin and recycling processes of precipitating water over the Eurasian continent: Experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model
journal, January 1999
- Numaguti, Atusi
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 104, Issue D2
Dust storm simulation over Iran using HYSPLIT
journal, January 2014
- Ashrafi, Khosro; Shafiepour-Motlagh, Majid; Aslemand, Alireza
- Journal of Environmental Health Science and Engineering, Vol. 12, Issue 1
Testing the Clausius–Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming
journal, August 2006
- Pall, P.; Allen, M. R.; Stone, D. A.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 28, Issue 4
Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes
journal, July 2008
- Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 1, Issue 8
Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada
journal, November 2014
- Rousseau, Alain N.; Klein, Iris M.; Freudiger, Daphné
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 519
A hybrid modeling approach to resolve pollutant concentrations in an urban area
journal, December 2007
- Stein, Ariel F.; Isakov, Vlad; Godowitch, James
- Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 41, Issue 40
Size distribution and concentrations of heavy metals in atmospheric aerosols originating from industrial emissions as predicted by the HYSPLIT model
journal, June 2013
- Chen, Bing; Stein, Ariel F.; Maldonado, Pabla Guerrero
- Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 71
Atmospheric rivers induced heavy precipitation and flooding in the western U.S. simulated by the WRF regional climate model: ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, PRECIPITATION, FLOOD
journal, February 2009
- Leung, L. Ruby; Qian, Yun
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 3
Transport of Atmospheric Moisture during Three Extreme Rainfall Events over the Mackenzie River Basin
journal, August 2005
- Brimelow, Julian C.; Reuter, Gerhard W.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 6, Issue 4
Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate
journal, September 2014
- Cheng, Linyin; AghaKouchak, Amir; Gilleland, Eric
- Climatic Change, Vol. 127, Issue 2
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
journal, November 2006
- Held, Isaac M.; Soden, Brian J.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 21
Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events
journal, August 2017
- Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby
- Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 22, Issue 8
Lessons from the Oroville dam
journal, March 2017
- Vahedifard, Farshid; AghaKouchak, Amir; Ragno, Elisa
- Science, Vol. 355, Issue 6330
Moisture sources of an extreme precipitation event in Sichuan, China, based on the Lagrangian method: Moisture sources of extreme precipitation using Lagrangian method
journal, February 2015
- Huang, Yongjie; Cui, Xiaopeng
- Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 16, Issue 2
NOAA’s HYSPLIT Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling System
journal, December 2015
- Stein, A. F.; Draxler, R. R.; Rolph, G. D.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 12
Nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in China
journal, December 2016
- Gao, Meng; Mo, Dingyuan; Wu, Xiaoqing
- Atmospheric Research, Vol. 182
North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Continental and Regional Climatology
journal, December 2013
- Sheffield, Justin; Barrett, Andrew P.; Colle, Brian
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 23
Revisiting extreme storms of the past 100 years for future safety of large water management infrastructures: REVISITING PAST FOR FUTURE DAM SAFETY
journal, July 2016
- Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal
- Earth's Future, Vol. 4, Issue 7
Flooding in Western Washington: The Connection to Atmospheric Rivers
journal, December 2011
- Neiman, Paul J.; Schick, Lawrence J.; Ralph, F. Martin
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 12, Issue 6
Improved Bias Correction Techniques for Hydrological Simulations of Climate Change
journal, December 2015
- Pierce, David W.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Edwin P.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 16, Issue 6
Statistical Downscaling Using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA)
journal, December 2014
- Pierce, David W.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Thrasher, Bridget L.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Issue 6
How will orographic precipitation respond to surface warming? An idealized thermodynamic perspective
journal, April 2014
- Siler, Nicholas; Roe, Gerard
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 7
Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes
journal, August 2008
- Allan, Richard P.; Soden, Brian J.
- Science, Vol. 321, Issue 5895
Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge
journal, April 2013
- Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Karl, Thomas R.; Brooks, Harold
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 4
Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation in Korea using a Regional Climate Model
journal, March 2017
- Lee, Jeonghoon; Choi, Jeonghyeon; Lee, Okjeong
- Water, Vol. 9, Issue 4
Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme precipitation in South Korea using peaks-over-threshold and annual maxima
journal, November 2015
- Wi, Sungwook; Valdés, Juan B.; Steinschneider, Scott
- Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 30, Issue 2
Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America
journal, August 2016
- Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Rasmussen, Roy
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 49, Issue 1-2
Changes in Winter Atmospheric Rivers along the North American West Coast in CMIP5 Climate Models
journal, February 2015
- Warner, Michael D.; Mass, Clifford F.; Salathé, Eric P.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 16, Issue 1
Physically Based Estimation of Maximum Precipitation over American River Watershed, California
journal, April 2011
- Ohara, N.; Kavvas, M. L.; Kure, S.
- Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 16, Issue 4
The Changing Character of Precipitation
journal, September 2003
- Trenberth, Kevin E.; Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 84, Issue 9
Climate Change, Atmospheric Rivers, and Floods in California - A Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes1: Climate Change, Atmospheric Rivers, and Floods in California - A Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes
journal, June 2011
- Dettinger, Michael
- JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 47, Issue 3
Estimation of the summer-fall PMP and PMF of a northern watershed under a changed climate: PMP and PMF Estimation Under Climate Change
journal, June 2013
- Beauchamp, Josée; Leconte, Robert; Trudel, Mélanie
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 49, Issue 6
Detecting the origins of moisture over southeast China: Seasonal variation and heavy rainfall
journal, March 2016
- Li, Xiuzhen; Zhou, Wen; Chen, Yongqin David
- Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 33, Issue 3
A novel method to estimate the maximization ratio of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) using regional climate model output: PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION
journal, September 2016
- Rouhani, Hassan; Leconte, Robert
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 52, Issue 9
Importance of Regional Climate Model Grid Spacing for the Simulation of Heavy Precipitation in the Colorado Headwaters
journal, July 2013
- Prein, Andreas F.; Holland, Gregory J.; Rasmussen, Roy M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 13
The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C
journal, December 2012
- Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Boden, Tom
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 1
Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation
journal, May 2017
- Pfahl, S.; O’Gorman, P. A.; Fischer, E. M.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 6
Method for Estimating Probable Maximum Rainfall
journal, August 1965
- Hershfield, David M.
- Journal - American Water Works Association, Vol. 57, Issue 8
Analysis of the landslide triggering mechanism during the storm of 20th–21st November 2000, in Northern Tuscany
journal, October 2005
- Casagli, N.; Dapporto, S.; Ibsen, M. L.
- Landslides, Vol. 3, Issue 1
Probable maximum precipitation and climate change: PMP AND CLIMATE CHANGE
journal, April 2013
- Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Karl, Thomas R.; Easterling, David R.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 7
Modeling the atmospheric transport and deposition of mercury to the Great Lakes
journal, July 2004
- Cohen, Mark; Artz, Richard; Draxler, Roland
- Environmental Research, Vol. 95, Issue 3
Physically Based Estimation of Maximum Precipitation over Three Watersheds in Northern California: Atmospheric Boundary Condition Shifting
journal, April 2015
- Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Jang, S.
- Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 20, Issue 4
A long-term record of blended satellite and in situ sea-surface temperature for climate monitoring, modeling and environmental studies
journal, January 2016
- Banzon, Viva; Smith, Thomas M.; Chin, Toshio Mike
- Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, Issue 1
Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America
journal, September 2015
- Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 17
A generalised technique for the estimation of probable maximum precipitation in India
journal, June 1985
- Rakhecha, P. R.; Kennedy, M. R.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 78, Issue 3-4
A U.S.-based analysis of the ability of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship to explain changes in extreme rainfall with changing temperature: CHANGES IN EXTREME RAINFALL IN THE U.S.
journal, April 2016
- Ivancic, Timothy J.; Shaw, Stephen B.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, Issue 7
Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PMP
journal, May 2017
- Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 9
Evaluation of CMIP5 20 th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA : CMIP5 20TH CENTURY CLIMATE OF THE PNW
journal, October 2013
- Rupp, David E.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 19
Scientific, societal and pedagogical approaches to tackle the impact of climate change on marine pollution
journal, February 2021
- Alves, Tiago M.; Kokinou, Eleni; Ekström, Marie
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 11, Issue 1
Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada
text, January 2014
- Rousseau, Alain N.; Klein, Iris M.; Freudiger, Daphné
- Elsevier
Works referencing / citing this record:
Swiss Rainfall Mass Curves and their Influence on Extreme Flood Simulation
journal, March 2018
- Zeimetz, Fränz; Schaefli, Bettina; Artigue, Guillaume
- Water Resources Management, Vol. 32, Issue 8
An improved moisture and wind maximization method for probable maximum precipitation estimation and its application to a small catchment in China
journal, April 2020
- Zhou, Yan; Liang, Zhongmin; Hu, Yiming
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 40, Issue 5