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Title: Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies

Abstract

It was recently suggested that earlier reports on solid-cancer mortality and incidence in the Life Span Study of atomic-bomb survivors contain still-useful information about low-dose risk that should not be ignored, because longer follow-up may lead to attenuated estimates of low-dose risk due to longer time since exposure. Here it is demonstrated, through the use of all follow-up data and risk models stratified on period of follow-up (as opposed to sub-setting the data by follow-up period), that the appearance of risk attenuation over time may be the result of less-precise risk estimation—in particular, imprecise estimation of effect-modification parameters—in the earlier periods. Longer follow-up, in addition to allowing more-precise estimation of risk due to larger numbers of radiation-related cases, provides more-precise adjustment for background mortality or incidence and more-accurate assessment of risk modification by age at exposure and attained age. It is concluded that the latest follow-up data are most appropriate for inferring low-dose risk. However, if researchers are interested in effects of time since exposure, the most-recent follow-up data should be considered rather than the results of earlier reports.

Authors:
ORCiD logo; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1409701
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1502096
Grant/Contract Number:  
DOE award DE-HS0000031; HS0000031
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Radiation and Environmental Biophysics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Radiation and Environmental Biophysics Journal Volume: 57 Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0301-634X
Publisher:
Springer Science + Business Media
Country of Publication:
Germany
Language:
English
Subject:
63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGS. AND BIOL. MAT.; 61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY; Atomic-bomb survivors; Life Span Study; Low-dose research; Risk assessment

Citation Formats

Cologne, John, Preston, Dale L., Grant, Eric J., Cullings, Harry M., and Ozasa, Kotaro. Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies. Germany: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1007/s00411-017-0720-7.
Cologne, John, Preston, Dale L., Grant, Eric J., Cullings, Harry M., & Ozasa, Kotaro. Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies. Germany. doi:10.1007/s00411-017-0720-7.
Cologne, John, Preston, Dale L., Grant, Eric J., Cullings, Harry M., and Ozasa, Kotaro. Tue . "Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies". Germany. doi:10.1007/s00411-017-0720-7.
@article{osti_1409701,
title = {Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies},
author = {Cologne, John and Preston, Dale L. and Grant, Eric J. and Cullings, Harry M. and Ozasa, Kotaro},
abstractNote = {It was recently suggested that earlier reports on solid-cancer mortality and incidence in the Life Span Study of atomic-bomb survivors contain still-useful information about low-dose risk that should not be ignored, because longer follow-up may lead to attenuated estimates of low-dose risk due to longer time since exposure. Here it is demonstrated, through the use of all follow-up data and risk models stratified on period of follow-up (as opposed to sub-setting the data by follow-up period), that the appearance of risk attenuation over time may be the result of less-precise risk estimation—in particular, imprecise estimation of effect-modification parameters—in the earlier periods. Longer follow-up, in addition to allowing more-precise estimation of risk due to larger numbers of radiation-related cases, provides more-precise adjustment for background mortality or incidence and more-accurate assessment of risk modification by age at exposure and attained age. It is concluded that the latest follow-up data are most appropriate for inferring low-dose risk. However, if researchers are interested in effects of time since exposure, the most-recent follow-up data should be considered rather than the results of earlier reports.},
doi = {10.1007/s00411-017-0720-7},
journal = {Radiation and Environmental Biophysics},
number = 1,
volume = 57,
place = {Germany},
year = {2017},
month = {11}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1007/s00411-017-0720-7

Figures / Tables:

Fig. 1 Fig. 1: Solid cancer mortality ERR estimates and 95% likelihoodbased confidence intervals for dose ranges from zero up to selected cutpoints. There were only two deaths from solid cancer above 3 Gy prior to 1990, so the segmented ERR model did not converge with dj = 3.0 in the 1950–1990more » and 1950–1985 periods. The point for dose range up to 4 Gy represents the ERR for the entire dose range with no segmentation in the dose response. Dashed line is the ERR estimated over the full dose range using the entire follow-up [0.438; 95% CI (0.328, 0.550)]. Solid line is at zero. Arrows demark the value of Dmin in each period. The notation [0, dj) on the X-axis represents 0 ≤ d < dj« less

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Works referenced in this record:

Effect of Comparison Group on Inference about Effect Modification by Demographic Factors in Cohort Risk Regression
journal, January 2002

  • Cologne, John; Izumi, Shizue; Shimizu, Yukiko
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    Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.