skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments

Abstract

We present a weighting strategy for use with the CMIP5 multi-model archive in the fourth National Climate Assessment, which considers both skill in the climatological performance of models over North America as well as the inter-dependency of models arising from common parameterizations or tuning practices. The method exploits information relating to the climatological mean state of a number of projection-relevant variables as well as metrics representing long-term statistics of weather extremes. The weights, once computed can be used to simply compute weighted means and significance information from an ensemble containing multiple initial condition members from potentially co-dependent models of varying skill. Two parameters in the algorithm determine the degree to which model climatological skill and model uniqueness are rewarded; these parameters are explored and final values are defended for the assessment. The influence of model weighting on projected temperature and precipitation changes is found to be moderate, partly due to a compensating effect between model skill and uniqueness. However, more aggressive skill weighting and weighting by targeted metrics is found to have a more significant effect on inferred ensemble confidence in future patterns of change for a given projection.

Authors:
 [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  3. Swiss Federal Inst. of Technology (ETH), Zurich (Switzerland); National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1408439
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; FC02-97ER62402
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online); Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES

Citation Formats

Sanderson, Benjamin M., Wehner, Michael, and Knutti, Reto. Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017.
Sanderson, Benjamin M., Wehner, Michael, & Knutti, Reto. Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments. United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017.
Sanderson, Benjamin M., Wehner, Michael, and Knutti, Reto. Wed . "Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments". United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1408439.
@article{osti_1408439,
title = {Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments},
author = {Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Wehner, Michael and Knutti, Reto},
abstractNote = {We present a weighting strategy for use with the CMIP5 multi-model archive in the fourth National Climate Assessment, which considers both skill in the climatological performance of models over North America as well as the inter-dependency of models arising from common parameterizations or tuning practices. The method exploits information relating to the climatological mean state of a number of projection-relevant variables as well as metrics representing long-term statistics of weather extremes. The weights, once computed can be used to simply compute weighted means and significance information from an ensemble containing multiple initial condition members from potentially co-dependent models of varying skill. Two parameters in the algorithm determine the degree to which model climatological skill and model uniqueness are rewarded; these parameters are explored and final values are defended for the assessment. The influence of model weighting on projected temperature and precipitation changes is found to be moderate, partly due to a compensating effect between model skill and uniqueness. However, more aggressive skill weighting and weighting by targeted metrics is found to have a more significant effect on inferred ensemble confidence in future patterns of change for a given projection.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development (Online)},
number = 6,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {6}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 11 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

AIRS/AMSU/HSB on the aqua mission: design, science objectives, data products, and processing systems
journal, February 2003

  • Aumann, H. H.; Chahine, M. T.; Gautier, C.
  • IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Vol. 41, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1109/TGRS.2002.808356

Climate model genealogy: CLIMATE MODEL GENEALOGY
journal, April 2011


Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm
journal, December 2012


The end of model democracy?: An editorial comment
journal, January 2010


Climate Model Dependence and the Ensemble Dependence Transformation of CMIP Projections
journal, March 2015


II—Wendy S. Parker: Confirmation and adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling
journal, June 2009


A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence: Model Projection Weighting Scheme
journal, January 2017

  • Knutti, Reto; Sedláček, Jan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.
  • Geophysical Research Letters
  • DOI: 10.1002/2016GL072012

A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble
journal, July 2015


On the Effective Number of Climate Models
journal, May 2011


Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there: CLIMATE MODEL GENEALOGY
journal, March 2013

  • Knutti, Reto; Masson, David; Gettelman, Andrew
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1002/grl.50256

The ERA-40 re-analysis
journal, October 2005

  • Uppala, S. M.; KÅllberg, P. W.; Simmons, A. J.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 131, Issue 612
  • DOI: 10.1256/qj.04.176

Skill of CMIP5 climate models in reproducing 20th century basic climate features in Central America: SKILL OF CMIP5 CLIMATE MODELS IN CENTRAL AMERICA
journal, December 2014

  • Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Alfaro, Eric J.
  • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 35, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1002/joc.4216

Understanding the CMIP3 Multimodel Ensemble
journal, August 2011


Development and Testing of Canada-Wide Interpolated Spatial Models of Daily Minimum–Maximum Temperature and Precipitation for 1961–2003
journal, April 2009

  • Hutchinson, Michael F.; McKenney, Dan W.; Lawrence, Kevin
  • Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 48, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1175/2008JAMC1979.1

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012

  • Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

On the interpretation of constrained climate model ensembles: ENSEMBLE INTERPRETATION
journal, August 2012

  • Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Knutti, Reto
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 16
  • DOI: 10.1029/2012GL052665

Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models
journal, May 2010

  • Knutti, Reto; Furrer, Reinhard; Tebaldi, Claudia
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1

Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections: CMIP5 PROJECTIONS OF EXTREMES INDICES
journal, March 2013

  • Sillmann, J.; Kharin, V. V.; Zwiers, F. W.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50188

The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
journal, June 2007

  • Tebaldi, Claudia; Knutti, Reto
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 365, Issue 1857
  • DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2076

    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Informing Future Risks of Record‐Level Rainfall in the United States
    journal, April 2019

    • Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Wobus, Cameron; Mills, Dave
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl082362

    Biased estimates of the isotope ratios of steady‐state evaporation from the assumption of equilibrium between vapour and precipitation
    journal, July 2019

    • Fiorella, Richard P.; West, Jason B.; Bowen, Gabriel J.
    • Hydrological Processes, Vol. 33, Issue 19
    • DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13531

    Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity
    journal, September 2017

    • Knutti, Reto; Rugenstein, Maria A. A.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.
    • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 10, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo3017

    Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers
    journal, July 2019

    • Gershunov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara; Clemesha, Rachel E. S.
    • Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w

    Biased estimates of the isotope ratios of steady‐state evaporation from the assumption of equilibrium between vapour and precipitation
    journal, July 2019

    • Fiorella, Richard P.; West, Jason B.; Bowen, Gabriel J.
    • Hydrological Processes, Vol. 33, Issue 19
    • DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13531

    Informing Future Risks of Record‐Level Rainfall in the United States
    journal, April 2019

    • Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Wobus, Cameron; Mills, Dave
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl082362

    Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity
    journal, September 2017

    • Knutti, Reto; Rugenstein, Maria A. A.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.
    • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 10, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo3017

    Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers
    journal, July 2019

    • Gershunov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara; Clemesha, Rachel E. S.
    • Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w