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Title: Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations

Abstract

The four idealized configurations of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group are integrated using the global Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 at two different horizontal resolutions, approximately 100 and 25 km. The publicly released 0.9° × 1.3° configuration is a poor predictor of the sign of the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration’s change in the total number of tropical storms in a warmer climate. However, it does predict the sign of the higher-resolution configuration’s change in the number of intense tropical cyclones in a warmer climate. In the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration, both increased CO 2 concentrations and elevated sea surface temperature (SST) independently lower the number of weak tropical storms and shorten their average duration. Conversely, increased SST causes more intense tropical cyclones and lengthens their average duration, resulting in a greater number of intense tropical cyclone days globally. Increased SST also increased maximum tropical storm instantaneous precipitation rates across all storm intensities. It was found that while a measure of maximum potential intensity based on climatological mean quantities adequately predicts the 0.23° × 0.31° model’s forced response in its most intense simulated tropical cyclones, a related measure of cyclogenesis potential fails to predict the model’s actual cyclogenesismore » response to warmer SSTs. These analyses lead to two broader conclusions: 1) Projections of future tropical storm activity obtained by a direct tracking of tropical storms simulated by coarse-resolution climate models must be interpreted with caution. 2) Projections of future tropical cyclogenesis obtained from metrics of model behavior that are based solely on changes in long-term climatological fields and tuned to historical records must also be interpreted with caution.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1407351
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 28; Journal Issue: 10; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; hurricanes/typhoons; general circulation models; model evaluation/performance

Citation Formats

Wehner, Michael, ., Prabhat, Reed, Kevin A., Stone, Dáithí, Collins, William D., and Bacmeister, Julio. Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00311.1.
Wehner, Michael, ., Prabhat, Reed, Kevin A., Stone, Dáithí, Collins, William D., & Bacmeister, Julio. Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations. United States. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00311.1.
Wehner, Michael, ., Prabhat, Reed, Kevin A., Stone, Dáithí, Collins, William D., and Bacmeister, Julio. Tue . "Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations". United States. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00311.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1407351.
@article{osti_1407351,
title = {Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations},
author = {Wehner, Michael and ., Prabhat and Reed, Kevin A. and Stone, Dáithí and Collins, William D. and Bacmeister, Julio},
abstractNote = {The four idealized configurations of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group are integrated using the global Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 at two different horizontal resolutions, approximately 100 and 25 km. The publicly released 0.9° × 1.3° configuration is a poor predictor of the sign of the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration’s change in the total number of tropical storms in a warmer climate. However, it does predict the sign of the higher-resolution configuration’s change in the number of intense tropical cyclones in a warmer climate. In the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration, both increased CO2 concentrations and elevated sea surface temperature (SST) independently lower the number of weak tropical storms and shorten their average duration. Conversely, increased SST causes more intense tropical cyclones and lengthens their average duration, resulting in a greater number of intense tropical cyclone days globally. Increased SST also increased maximum tropical storm instantaneous precipitation rates across all storm intensities. It was found that while a measure of maximum potential intensity based on climatological mean quantities adequately predicts the 0.23° × 0.31° model’s forced response in its most intense simulated tropical cyclones, a related measure of cyclogenesis potential fails to predict the model’s actual cyclogenesis response to warmer SSTs. These analyses lead to two broader conclusions: 1) Projections of future tropical storm activity obtained by a direct tracking of tropical storms simulated by coarse-resolution climate models must be interpreted with caution. 2) Projections of future tropical cyclogenesis obtained from metrics of model behavior that are based solely on changes in long-term climatological fields and tuned to historical records must also be interpreted with caution.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00311.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 10,
volume = 28,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {5}
}

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2
journal, July 2016

  • Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Delgenio, Anthony D.
  • Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 68, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v68.31494

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates: TC TRACKS IN PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATES
journal, September 2017

  • Nakamura, Jennifer; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 18
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017jd027007

Tropical cyclones in climate models: Tropical cyclones in climate models
journal, November 2015

  • Camargo, Suzana J.; Wing, Allison A.
  • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1002/wcc.373