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Title: Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

Abstract

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but thesemore » tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Lastly, further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [1];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [2];  [5];  [11];  [12];  [3];  [13];  [5];  [14];  [7] more »;  [15];  [16];  [17];  [18];  [19];  [15];  [3];  [20];  [16];  [17];  [14];  [19];  [21];  [22];  [2] « less
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Univ. of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic (Australia)
  2. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
  3. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ (United States)
  4. Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Space Science and Engineering Center
  5. Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States)
  6. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
  7. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States). Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
  8. Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  9. Texas A & M Univ. College Station, TX (United States)
  10. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy)
  11. Univ. of Iowa, Iowa City, IA (United States)
  12. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  13. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Asheville, NC (United States). National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
  14. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Kanagawa (Japan)
  15. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), College Park, MD (United States). National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
  16. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  17. Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)
  18. Meteo-France, Toulouse (France)
  19. Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
  20. Japan Meteorological Agency, sukuba-city, Ibaraki (Japan)
  21. Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom)
  22. NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1407302
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 96; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Walsh, Kevin J. E., Camargo, Suzana J., Vecchi, Gabriel A., Daloz, Anne Sophie, Elsner, James, Emanuel, Kerry, Horn, Michael, Lim, Young-Kwon, Roberts, Malcolm, Patricola, Christina, Scoccimarro, Enrico, Sobel, Adam H., Strazzo, Sarah, Villarini, Gabriele, Wehner, Michael, Zhao, Ming, Kossin, James P., LaRow, Tim, Oouchi, Kazuyoshi, Schubert, Siegfried, Wang, Hui, Bacmeister, Julio, Chang, Ping, Chauvin, Fabrice, Jablonowski, Christiane, Kumar, Arun, Murakami, Hiroyuki, Ose, Tomoaki, Reed, Kevin A., Saravanan, Ramalingam, Yamada, Yohei, Zarzycki, Colin M., Vidale, Pier Luigi, Jonas, Jeffrey A., and Henderson, Naomi. Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00242.1.
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Walsh, Kevin J. E., Camargo, Suzana J., Vecchi, Gabriel A., Daloz, Anne Sophie, Elsner, James, Emanuel, Kerry, Horn, Michael, Lim, Young-Kwon, Roberts, Malcolm, Patricola, Christina, Scoccimarro, Enrico, Sobel, Adam H., Strazzo, Sarah, Villarini, Gabriele, Wehner, Michael, Zhao, Ming, Kossin, James P., LaRow, Tim, Oouchi, Kazuyoshi, Schubert, Siegfried, Wang, Hui, Bacmeister, Julio, Chang, Ping, Chauvin, Fabrice, Jablonowski, Christiane, Kumar, Arun, Murakami, Hiroyuki, Ose, Tomoaki, Reed, Kevin A., Saravanan, Ramalingam, Yamada, Yohei, Zarzycki, Colin M., Vidale, Pier Luigi, Jonas, Jeffrey A., & Henderson, Naomi. Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00242.1
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Walsh, Kevin J. E., Camargo, Suzana J., Vecchi, Gabriel A., Daloz, Anne Sophie, Elsner, James, Emanuel, Kerry, Horn, Michael, Lim, Young-Kwon, Roberts, Malcolm, Patricola, Christina, Scoccimarro, Enrico, Sobel, Adam H., Strazzo, Sarah, Villarini, Gabriele, Wehner, Michael, Zhao, Ming, Kossin, James P., LaRow, Tim, Oouchi, Kazuyoshi, Schubert, Siegfried, Wang, Hui, Bacmeister, Julio, Chang, Ping, Chauvin, Fabrice, Jablonowski, Christiane, Kumar, Arun, Murakami, Hiroyuki, Ose, Tomoaki, Reed, Kevin A., Saravanan, Ramalingam, Yamada, Yohei, Zarzycki, Colin M., Vidale, Pier Luigi, Jonas, Jeffrey A., and Henderson, Naomi. Mon . "Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00242.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1407302.
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@article{osti_1407302,
title = {Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes},
author = {Walsh, Kevin J. E. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Daloz, Anne Sophie and Elsner, James and Emanuel, Kerry and Horn, Michael and Lim, Young-Kwon and Roberts, Malcolm and Patricola, Christina and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Sobel, Adam H. and Strazzo, Sarah and Villarini, Gabriele and Wehner, Michael and Zhao, Ming and Kossin, James P. and LaRow, Tim and Oouchi, Kazuyoshi and Schubert, Siegfried and Wang, Hui and Bacmeister, Julio and Chang, Ping and Chauvin, Fabrice and Jablonowski, Christiane and Kumar, Arun and Murakami, Hiroyuki and Ose, Tomoaki and Reed, Kevin A. and Saravanan, Ramalingam and Yamada, Yohei and Zarzycki, Colin M. and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Jonas, Jeffrey A. and Henderson, Naomi},
abstractNote = {While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Lastly, further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00242.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = 6,
volume = 96,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Mon Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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  • Wing, Simon; Gjerloev, Jesper W.; Johnson, Jay R.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 16
  • DOI: 10.1029/2007GL030453

A multidecadal simulation of Atlantic tropical cyclones using a variable-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model
journal, August 2014

  • Zarzycki, Colin M.; Jablonowski, Christiane
  • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 6, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000352

Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM
journal, December 2009

  • Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.; Lin, Shian-Jiann
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 24
  • DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI3049.1
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Projected changes in ENSO-driven regional tropical cyclone tracks
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    Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model
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    • Grinsted, Aslak; Ditlevsen, Peter; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, Issue 48
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912277116

    Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates
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    • Nakamura, Jennifer; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.
    • Columbia University
    • DOI: 10.7916/d8-j8kz-mb30

    Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates
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    Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change
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    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2689

    Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change
    journal, January 2017

    • van der Wiel, Karin; Kapnick, Sarah B.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan
    • Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 21, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-897-2017

    A comprehensive data set for tropical cyclone storm surge-induced inundation for the east coast of India: DATA SET FOR STORM SURGE AND INUNDATION FOR EAST COAST OF INDIA
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    • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 38, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1002/joc.5184

    An Observational Analysis of Ocean Surface Waves in Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Ocean
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    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 124, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1029/2018jc014517

    Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence
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    High-income does not protect against hurricane losses
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    Inter‐annual variation of tropical cyclones simulated by GEOS‐5 AGCM with modified convection scheme
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    • Seo, Eunkyo; Lee, Myong‐In; Kim, Dongmin
    • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 39, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1002/joc.6058

    Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2
    journal, July 2016

    • Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Delgenio, Anthony D.
    • Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 68, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v68.31494

    Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency
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    Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: roles of atmospheric resolution, synoptic variability and background climate changes
    journal, August 2019

    • Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Murakami, Hiroyuki
    • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 9-10
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    Aquaplanet Simulations of Tropical Cyclones
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    Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s
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    • Mei, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping
    • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2792

    Evaluation of climatological tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the CORDEX-East Asia multi-RCM simulations
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    Tropical cyclones and climate change: Tropical cyclones and climate change
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    • Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McBride, John L.; Klotzbach, Philip J.
    • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1002/wcc.371

    Going Downriver: Patterns and Cues in Hurricane-Driven Movements of Common Snook in a Subtropical Coastal River
    journal, August 2019

    • Massie, Jordan A.; Strickland, Bradley A.; Santos, Rolando O.
    • Estuaries and Coasts, Vol. 43, Issue 5
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    Tropical cyclones in climate models: Tropical cyclones in climate models
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    • Camargo, Suzana J.; Wing, Allison A.
    • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 2
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    Tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates simulated by a cloud-system resolving model
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    Tropical cyclones in climate models
    text, January 2016

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    • Columbia University
    • DOI: 10.7916/d8pv6kf0

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    Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2
    text, January 2016

    • Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Del Genio, Anthony D.
    • Columbia University
    • DOI: 10.7916/d8-2ymh-8911
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