Role of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis
Abstract
We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (FTA) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project during 1961–2012 for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40 % compared to atmospheric inversions. Global FTA amplitude increase (19 ± 8 %) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56 %, −3 ± 74 % and 20 ± 30 % to rising CO2, climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO2 fertilization is a stronger control — with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result ismore »
- Authors:
-
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science; Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg, Potsdam (Germany)
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
- Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom). College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences
- National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan). Center for Global Environmental Research
- Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science
- Inst. of Applied Energy (IAE), Tokyo (Japan). Global Environment Program Research & Development Division
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Division
- Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Inst. on Ecosystems and Department of Ecology
- Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Inst.
- Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives (CEA CNRS UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
- Met Office, Exeter (United States). Hadley Centre
- Max Planck Society, Jena (Germany). Max Planck Inst. for Biogeochemistry, Biogeochemical Integration Dept.
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1377492
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1406826
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-118615
Journal ID: ISSN 1726-4189; ark:/13030/qt9tq4z262
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Biogeosciences (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Biogeosciences (Online); Journal Volume: 13; Journal Issue: 17; Journal ID: ISSN 1726-4189
- Publisher:
- European Geosciences Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Zhao, Fang, Zeng, Ning, Asrar, Ghassem, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Ito, Akihiko, Jain, Atul, Kalnay, Eugenia, Kato, Etsushi, Koven, Charles D., Poulter, Ben, Rafique, Rashid, Sitch, Stephen, Shu, Shijie, Stocker, Beni, Viovy, Nicolas, Wiltshire, Andy, and Zaehle, Sonke. Role of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016.
Zhao, Fang, Zeng, Ning, Asrar, Ghassem, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Ito, Akihiko, Jain, Atul, Kalnay, Eugenia, Kato, Etsushi, Koven, Charles D., Poulter, Ben, Rafique, Rashid, Sitch, Stephen, Shu, Shijie, Stocker, Beni, Viovy, Nicolas, Wiltshire, Andy, & Zaehle, Sonke. Role of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016
Zhao, Fang, Zeng, Ning, Asrar, Ghassem, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Ito, Akihiko, Jain, Atul, Kalnay, Eugenia, Kato, Etsushi, Koven, Charles D., Poulter, Ben, Rafique, Rashid, Sitch, Stephen, Shu, Shijie, Stocker, Beni, Viovy, Nicolas, Wiltshire, Andy, and Zaehle, Sonke. Wed .
"Role of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1377492.
@article{osti_1377492,
title = {Role of CO2, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis},
author = {Zhao, Fang and Zeng, Ning and Asrar, Ghassem and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Ito, Akihiko and Jain, Atul and Kalnay, Eugenia and Kato, Etsushi and Koven, Charles D. and Poulter, Ben and Rafique, Rashid and Sitch, Stephen and Shu, Shijie and Stocker, Beni and Viovy, Nicolas and Wiltshire, Andy and Zaehle, Sonke},
abstractNote = {We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (FTA) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project during 1961–2012 for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40 % compared to atmospheric inversions. Global FTA amplitude increase (19 ± 8 %) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56 %, −3 ± 74 % and 20 ± 30 % to rising CO2, climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO2 fertilization is a stronger control — with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global FTA: some are due to forest regrowth while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between FTA amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink (R2 = 0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms, therefore the spatial traits of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.},
doi = {10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016},
journal = {Biogeosciences (Online)},
number = 17,
volume = 13,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Sep 14 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Wed Sep 14 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 21 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Explaining the seasonal cycle of the globally averaged CO 2 with a carbon-cycle model
journal, January 2014
- Alexandrov, G. A.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Carbon–Concentration and Carbon–Climate Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models
journal, August 2013
- Arora, Vivek K.; Boer, George J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 15
Seasonal amplitude increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, 1959-1982
journal, October 1985
- Bacastow, R. B.; Keeling, C. D.; Whorf, T. P.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 90, Issue D6
Identification and characterization of abrupt changes in the land uptake of carbon: ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE CARBON LAND UPTAKE
journal, January 2012
- Beaulieu, Claudie; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Mikaloff Fletcher, Sara E.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 26, Issue 1
The changing carbon cycle at Mauna Loa Observatory
journal, March 2007
- Buermann, W.; Lintner, B. R.; Koven, C. D.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 104, Issue 11
The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics
journal, January 2011
- Clark, D. B.; Mercado, L. M.; Sitch, S.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 4, Issue 3
Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2
journal, January 2011
- Collins, W. J.; Bellouin, N.; Doutriaux-Boucher, M.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 4, Issue 4
Towards a more objective evaluation of modelled land-carbon trends using atmospheric CO 2 and satellite-based vegetation activity observations
journal, January 2013
- Dalmonech, D.; Zaehle, S.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, Issue 6
Separation of the Effects of Land and Climate Model Errors on Simulated Contemporary Land Carbon Cycle Trends in the MPI Earth System Model version 1
journal, January 2015
- Dalmonech, Daniela; Zaehle, Sönke; Schürmann, Gregor J.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 1
Identifying environmental controls on vegetation greenness phenology through model–data integration
journal, January 2014
- Forkel, M.; Carvalhais, N.; Schaphoff, S.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 23
Enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems
journal, January 2016
- Forkel, M.; Carvalhais, N.; Rodenbeck, C.
- Science, Vol. 351, Issue 6274
Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C 4 MIP Model Intercomparison
journal, July 2006
- Friedlingstein, P.; Cox, P.; Betts, R.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 14
Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
journal, January 2014
- Friedlingstein, Pierre; Meinshausen, Malte; Arora, Vivek K.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 2
Enhanced Seasonal Exchange of CO2 by Northern Ecosystems Since 1960
journal, August 2013
- Graven, H. D.; Keeling, R. F.; Piper, S. C.
- Science, Vol. 341, Issue 6150
Direct human influence on atmospheric CO2 seasonality from increased cropland productivity
journal, November 2014
- Gray, Josh M.; Frolking, Steve; Kort, Eric A.
- Nature, Vol. 515, Issue 7527
Regional trends in terrestrial carbon exchange and their seasonal signatures
journal, January 2011
- Gurney, Kevin R.; Eckels, Warren J.
- Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Vol. 63, Issue 3
A fifteen-year record of biotic metabolism in the Northern Hemisphere
journal, May 1975
- Hall, Charles A. S.; Ekdahl, Carl A.; Wartenberg, Daniel E.
- Nature, Vol. 255, Issue 5504
On the use of windows for harmonic analysis with the discrete Fourier transform
journal, January 1978
- Harris, F. J.
- Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 66, Issue 1
Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models through simulations of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 : First results of a model intercomparison study
journal, March 1998
- Heimann, M.; Esser, G.; Haxeltine, A.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 12, Issue 1
The North American Carbon Program Multi-Scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 1: Overview and experimental design
journal, January 2013
- Huntzinger, D. N.; Schwalm, C.; Michalak, A. M.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 6
Decadal trends in the seasonal-cycle amplitude of terrestrial CO 2 exchange resulting from the ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models
journal, May 2016
- Ito, Akihiko; Inatomi, Motoko; Huntzinger, Deborah N.
- Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Vol. 68, Issue 1
CO 2 emissions from land-use change affected more by nitrogen cycle, than by the choice of land-cover data
journal, April 2013
- Jain, Atul K.; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Song, Yang
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 9
Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years
journal, February 2008
- Joos, F.; Spahni, R.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 105, Issue 5
Sensitivity of the seasonal cycle of CO2 at remote monitoring stations with respect to seasonal surface exchange fluxes determined with the adjoint of an atmospheric transport model
journal, October 1996
- Kaminski, T.; Giering, R.; Heimann, M.
- Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Vol. 21, Issue 5-6
Evaluation of spatially explicit emission scenario of land-use change and biomass burning using a process-based biogeochemical model
journal, March 2013
- Kato, Etsushi; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Ito, Akihiko
- Journal of Land Use Science, Vol. 8, Issue 1
Interannual extremes in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1980
journal, June 1995
- Keeling, C. D.; Whorf, T. P.; Wahlen, M.
- Nature, Vol. 375, Issue 6533
Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements
journal, July 1996
- Keeling, C. D.; Chin, J. F. S.; Whorf, T. P.
- Nature, Vol. 382, Issue 6587
Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology
journal, June 2014
- Keenan, Trevor F.; Gray, Josh; Friedl, Mark A.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 7
The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human-induced global land-use change over the past 12,000 years: HYDE 3.1 Holocene land use
journal, September 2010
- Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Beusen, Arthur; Van Drecht, Gerard
- Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 20, Issue 1
A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system: DVGM FOR COUPLED CLIMATE STUDIES
journal, February 2005
- Krinner, G.; Viovy, Nicolas; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 19, Issue 1
Global carbon budget 2013
journal, January 2014
- Le Quéré, C.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.
- Earth System Science Data, Vol. 6, Issue 1
Global carbon budget 2014
journal, January 2015
- Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.
- Earth System Science Data, Vol. 7, Issue 1
Extension and integration of atmospheric carbon dioxide data into a globally consistent measurement record
journal, January 1995
- Masarie, Kenneth A.; Tans, Pieter P.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 100, Issue D6
Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the Twentieth Century: Analyses of CO 2 , climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models
journal, March 2001
- McGuire, A. D.; Sitch, S.; Clein, J. S.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 15, Issue 1
Large amplitude spatial and temporal gradients in atmospheric boundary layer CO 2 mole fractions detected with a tower-based network in the U.S. upper Midwest : CO
journal, February 2012
- Miles, Natasha L.; Richardson, Scott J.; Davis, Kenneth J.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 117, Issue G1
Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991
journal, April 1997
- Myneni, R. B.; Keeling, C. D.; Tucker, C. J.
- Nature, Vol. 386, Issue 6626
Activities of the global biosphere as reflected in atmospheric CO 2 records
journal, January 1980
- Pearman, G. I.; Hyson, P.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 85, Issue C8
Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO 2 fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models : Seasonal cycle of CO2 fluxes
journal, January 2015
- Peng, Shushi; Ciais, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 29, Issue 1
An atmospheric perspective on North American carbon dioxide exchange: CarbonTracker
journal, November 2007
- Peters, W.; Jacobson, A. R.; Sweeney, C.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 104, Issue 48
Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO 2 inversions
journal, January 2013
- Peylin, P.; Law, R. M.; Gurney, K. R.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, Issue 10
The Carbon Balance of the Terrestrial Biosphere: Ecosystem Models and Atmospheric Observations
journal, December 2000
- Prentice, I. Colin; Heimann, Martin; Sitch, Stephen
- Ecological Applications, Vol. 10, Issue 6
Global and Regional Variability and Change in Terrestrial Ecosystems Net Primary Production and NDVI: A Model-Data Comparison
journal, February 2016
- Rafique, Rashid; Zhao, Fang; de Jong, Rogier
- Remote Sensing, Vol. 8, Issue 3
The contribution of terrestrial sources and sinks to trends in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric carbon dioxide
journal, December 1997
- Randerson, James T.; Thompson, Matthew V.; Conway, Thomas J.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 11, Issue 4
Increases in early season ecosystem uptake explain recent changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 at high northern latitudes
journal, September 1999
- Randerson, J. T.; Field, C. B.; Fung, I. Y.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 26, Issue 17
Decade-long soil nitrogen constraint on the CO2 fertilization of plant biomass
journal, September 2012
- Reich, Peter B.; Hobbie, Sarah E.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 3
CO<sub>2</sub> flux history 1982–2001 inferred from atmospheric data using a global inversion of atmospheric transport
journal, January 2003
- Rödenbeck, C.; Houweling, S.; Gloor, M.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 3, Issue 6
Trends and regional distributions of land and ocean carbon sinks
journal, January 2010
- Sarmiento, J. L.; Gloor, M.; Gruber, N.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 7, Issue 8
Terrestrial carbon sink observed from space: variation of growth rates and seasonal cycle amplitudes in response to interannual surface temperature variability
journal, January 2014
- Schneising, O.; Reuter, M.; Buchwitz, M.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 14, Issue 1
Effects of elevated CO 2 and N fertilization on plant and soil carbon pools of managed grasslands: a meta-analysis
journal, January 2012
- Sillen, W. M. A.; Dieleman, W. I. J.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 9, Issue 6
Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model
journal, February 2003
- Sitch, S.; Smith, B.; Prentice, I. C.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 9, Issue 2
Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide
journal, January 2015
- Sitch, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gruber, N.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 12, Issue 3
DYPTOP: a cost-efficient TOPMODEL implementation to simulate sub-grid spatio-temporal dynamics of global wetlands and peatlands
journal, January 2014
- Stocker, B. D.; Spahni, R.; Joos, F.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 6
The relationship of the phase and amplitude of the annual cycle of CO 2 to phenological events
journal, June 2011
- Thompson, Roy
- Plant Ecology & Diversity, Vol. 4, Issue 2-3
Atmospheric carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa Observatory: 2. Analysis of the NOAA GMCC data, 1974-1985
journal, June 1989
- Thoning, Kirk W.; Tans, Pieter P.; Komhyr, Walter D.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 94, Issue D6
The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data
journal, January 2014
- Wei, Y.; Liu, S.; Huntzinger, D. N.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 6
New constraints on Northern Hemisphere growing season net flux
journal, January 2007
- Yang, Z.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Keppel-Aleks, G.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 12
Carbon and nitrogen cycle dynamics in the O-CN land surface model: 1. Model description, site-scale evaluation, and sensitivity to parameter estimates: SITE-SCALE EVALUATION OF A C-N MODEL
journal, February 2010
- Zaehle, S.; Friend, A. D.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 24, Issue 1
Carbon benefits of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen offset by nitrous oxide emissions
journal, July 2011
- Zaehle, Sönke; Ciais, Philippe; Friend, Andrew D.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, Issue 9
Impact of 1998-2002 midlatitude drought and warming on terrestrial ecosystem and the global carbon cycle: DROUGHT AND CO
journal, November 2005
- Zeng, Ning; Qian, Haifeng; Roedenbeck, Christian
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 22
Terrestrial mechanisms of interannual CO 2 variability : INTERANNUAL CO
journal, March 2005
- Zeng, N.; Mariotti, A.; Wetzel, P.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 19, Issue 1
Agricultural Green Revolution as a driver of increasing atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude
journal, November 2014
- Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Collatz, George J.
- Nature, Vol. 515, Issue 7527
Continued increase in atmospheric CO 2 seasonal amplitude in the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models
journal, January 2014
- Zhao, F.; Zeng, N.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Works referencing / citing this record:
Comprehensive Evaluation of Machine Learning Techniques for Estimating the Responses of Carbon Fluxes to Climatic Forces in Different Terrestrial Ecosystems
journal, February 2018
- Dou, Xianming; Yang, Yongguo
- Atmosphere, Vol. 9, Issue 3
Evaluation and uncertainty analysis of regional-scale CLM4.5 net carbon flux estimates
journal, January 2018
- Post, Hanna; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 15, Issue 1