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Title: Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions

Abstract

This article provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and core baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. Here we present the range in core baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO 2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections across models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of core baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)
  3. Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Amsterdam (The Netherlands)
  4. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
  5. RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
  6. Departmento Nacional de Planeacion, Bogota (Colombia)
  7. Joint Global Change Research Inst. (JCGRI), College Park, MD (United States)
  8. Eneris Environment Energy Consultants, Madrid (Spain)
  9. European Commission, Sevilla (Spain). Joint Research Centre
  10. Univ. Federal do Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Energy Planning Program, Graduate School of Engineering
  11. Utrecht Univ, Utrecht (The Netherlands). Faculty of Geosciences; PBL-Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE; European Union (EU); National Science Foundation (NSF); USEPA
OSTI Identifier:
1406822
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-108429
Journal ID: ISSN 0140-9883; 453040310
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830; 282846; 1243095
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Energy Economics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 56; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0140-9883
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Energy; Scenarios; Greenhouse gas emissions

Citation Formats

van Ruijven, Bas J., Daenzer, Katie, Fisher-Vanden, Karen, Kober, Tom, Paltsev, Sergey, Beach, Robert H., Calderon, Silvia Liliana, Calvin, Kate, Labriet, Maryse, Kitous, Alban, Lucena, André F. P., and van Vuuren, Detlef P. Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.02.003.
van Ruijven, Bas J., Daenzer, Katie, Fisher-Vanden, Karen, Kober, Tom, Paltsev, Sergey, Beach, Robert H., Calderon, Silvia Liliana, Calvin, Kate, Labriet, Maryse, Kitous, Alban, Lucena, André F. P., & van Vuuren, Detlef P. Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions. United States. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.02.003.
van Ruijven, Bas J., Daenzer, Katie, Fisher-Vanden, Karen, Kober, Tom, Paltsev, Sergey, Beach, Robert H., Calderon, Silvia Liliana, Calvin, Kate, Labriet, Maryse, Kitous, Alban, Lucena, André F. P., and van Vuuren, Detlef P. Sun . "Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions". United States. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.02.003. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1406822.
@article{osti_1406822,
title = {Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions},
author = {van Ruijven, Bas J. and Daenzer, Katie and Fisher-Vanden, Karen and Kober, Tom and Paltsev, Sergey and Beach, Robert H. and Calderon, Silvia Liliana and Calvin, Kate and Labriet, Maryse and Kitous, Alban and Lucena, André F. P. and van Vuuren, Detlef P.},
abstractNote = {This article provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and core baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. Here we present the range in core baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections across models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of core baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.},
doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2015.02.003},
journal = {Energy Economics},
number = C,
volume = 56,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {2}
}

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