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Title: Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America

Nearly 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Latin America were from agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) in 2008, more than double the global fraction of AFOLU emissions. In this paper, we investigate the future trajectory of AFOLU GHG emissions in Latin America, with and without efforts to mitigate, using a multi-model comparison approach. We find significant uncertainty in future emissions with and without climate policy. This uncertainty is due to differences in a variety of assumptions including (1) the role of bioenergy, (2) where and how bioenergy is produced, (3) the availability of afforestation options in climate mitigation policy, and (4) N 2O and CH 4 emissions intensity. With climate policy, these differences in assumptions can lead to significant variance in mitigation potential, with three models indicating reductions in AFOLU GHG emissions and one model indicating modest increases in AFOLU GHG emissions.
Authors:
 [1] ; ORCiD logo [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
  2. Research Triangle Inst., Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
  3. Fundacao Getulio Vargas (EESP/FGV), Sao Paulo (Brazil). Sao Paulo School of Economics, Brazil/MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change
  4. Eneris Environment Energy Consultants, Madrid (Spain)
  5. International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali (Colombia). CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-107886
Journal ID: ISSN 0140-9883; 453040310
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Energy Economics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 56; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0140-9883
Publisher:
Elsevier
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE; European Union (EU); USEPA
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
OSTI Identifier:
1406808