Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) indistinguishable from white noise
Abstract
Abstract Previous studies proposed that the year‐to‐year variability of seasonal monsoon indices is partly determined by a Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO). Invoking coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐land processes and the presence of an annual memory, the TBO mechanism describes how a relatively strong monsoon is followed by a year with weaker monsoon and vice versa. Here we revisit the issue of preferred biennial timescales in tropical monsoon systems, by testing the biennial tendencies in observed and simulated monsoon indices against the white noise null hypothesis. According to an analytical expression for the null hypothesis, we expect the probability for this biennial tendency to be 2/3, which is in close agreement with observations, reanalysis products, and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project general circulation model simulations. Thus, it is concluded that biennial tendencies in these monsoon indices and the associated TBO are fully consistent with a white noise process and do not require the presence of a preferred biennial timescale.
- Authors:
-
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawai'i at Mānoa Honolulu Hawai'i USA
- IPRC University of Hawai'i at Mānoa Honolulu Hawai'i USA
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1402376
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0005110
- Resource Type:
- Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 42 Journal Issue: 18; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Stuecker, Malte F., Timmermann, Axel, Yoon, Jinhee, and Jin, Fei‐Fei. Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) indistinguishable from white noise. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1002/2015GL065878.
Stuecker, Malte F., Timmermann, Axel, Yoon, Jinhee, & Jin, Fei‐Fei. Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) indistinguishable from white noise. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065878
Stuecker, Malte F., Timmermann, Axel, Yoon, Jinhee, and Jin, Fei‐Fei. Tue .
"Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) indistinguishable from white noise". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065878.
@article{osti_1402376,
title = {Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) indistinguishable from white noise},
author = {Stuecker, Malte F. and Timmermann, Axel and Yoon, Jinhee and Jin, Fei‐Fei},
abstractNote = {Abstract Previous studies proposed that the year‐to‐year variability of seasonal monsoon indices is partly determined by a Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO). Invoking coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐land processes and the presence of an annual memory, the TBO mechanism describes how a relatively strong monsoon is followed by a year with weaker monsoon and vice versa. Here we revisit the issue of preferred biennial timescales in tropical monsoon systems, by testing the biennial tendencies in observed and simulated monsoon indices against the white noise null hypothesis. According to an analytical expression for the null hypothesis, we expect the probability for this biennial tendency to be 2/3, which is in close agreement with observations, reanalysis products, and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project general circulation model simulations. Thus, it is concluded that biennial tendencies in these monsoon indices and the associated TBO are fully consistent with a white noise process and do not require the presence of a preferred biennial timescale.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL065878},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 18,
volume = 42,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Sep 29 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Tue Sep 29 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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