Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America
Abstract
This study examines the changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the west coast of North America in response to future warming using model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large magnitude of increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, with fractional increases ranging between ~50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and the landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture in the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. Here, the consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be further linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.
- Authors:
-
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1224503
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1402358
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-110116
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276; KP1703010
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 42; Journal Issue: 17; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; atmospheric rivers; climate change; thermodynamic effects; dynamical effects; increased moisture
Citation Formats
Gao, Yang, Lu, Jian, Leung, L. Ruby, Yang, Qing, Hagos, Samson M., and Qian, Yun. Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1002/2015GL065435.
Gao, Yang, Lu, Jian, Leung, L. Ruby, Yang, Qing, Hagos, Samson M., & Qian, Yun. Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065435
Gao, Yang, Lu, Jian, Leung, L. Ruby, Yang, Qing, Hagos, Samson M., and Qian, Yun. Mon .
"Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065435. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1224503.
@article{osti_1224503,
title = {Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America},
author = {Gao, Yang and Lu, Jian and Leung, L. Ruby and Yang, Qing and Hagos, Samson M. and Qian, Yun},
abstractNote = {This study examines the changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the west coast of North America in response to future warming using model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large magnitude of increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, with fractional increases ranging between ~50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and the landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture in the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. Here, the consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be further linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL065435},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 17,
volume = 42,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Aug 24 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Mon Aug 24 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
Web of Science
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