Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity
Abstract
Abstract The relatively muted warming of the surface and lower troposphere since 1998 has attracted considerable attention. One contributory factor to this “warming hiatus” is an increase in volcanically induced cooling over the early 21st century. Here we identify the signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity in multiple observed climate variables. Volcanic signals are statistically discernible in spatial averages of tropical and near‐global SST, tropospheric temperature, net clear‐sky short‐wave radiation, and atmospheric water vapor. Signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic eruptions are also detectable in near‐global averages of rainfall. In tropical average rainfall, however, only a Pinatubo‐caused drying signal is identifiable. Successful volcanic signal detection is critically dependent on removal of variability induced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
- Authors:
-
- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore California USA
- Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge Massachusetts USA
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Environment Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
- Remote Sensing Systems Santa Rosa California USA
- NASA Langley Research Center Hampton Virginia USA
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1460152
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1402211
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐AC52‐07NA27344
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 42 Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Santer, Benjamin D., Solomon, Susan, Bonfils, Céline, Zelinka, Mark D., Painter, Jeffrey F., Beltran, Francisco, Fyfe, John C., Johannesson, Gardar, Mears, Carl, Ridley, David A., Vernier, Jean‐Paul, and Wentz, Frank J. Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1002/2014GL062366.
Santer, Benjamin D., Solomon, Susan, Bonfils, Céline, Zelinka, Mark D., Painter, Jeffrey F., Beltran, Francisco, Fyfe, John C., Johannesson, Gardar, Mears, Carl, Ridley, David A., Vernier, Jean‐Paul, & Wentz, Frank J. Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062366
Santer, Benjamin D., Solomon, Susan, Bonfils, Céline, Zelinka, Mark D., Painter, Jeffrey F., Beltran, Francisco, Fyfe, John C., Johannesson, Gardar, Mears, Carl, Ridley, David A., Vernier, Jean‐Paul, and Wentz, Frank J. Tue .
"Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062366.
@article{osti_1460152,
title = {Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity},
author = {Santer, Benjamin D. and Solomon, Susan and Bonfils, Céline and Zelinka, Mark D. and Painter, Jeffrey F. and Beltran, Francisco and Fyfe, John C. and Johannesson, Gardar and Mears, Carl and Ridley, David A. and Vernier, Jean‐Paul and Wentz, Frank J.},
abstractNote = {Abstract The relatively muted warming of the surface and lower troposphere since 1998 has attracted considerable attention. One contributory factor to this “warming hiatus” is an increase in volcanically induced cooling over the early 21st century. Here we identify the signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity in multiple observed climate variables. Volcanic signals are statistically discernible in spatial averages of tropical and near‐global SST, tropospheric temperature, net clear‐sky short‐wave radiation, and atmospheric water vapor. Signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic eruptions are also detectable in near‐global averages of rainfall. In tropical average rainfall, however, only a Pinatubo‐caused drying signal is identifiable. Successful volcanic signal detection is critically dependent on removal of variability induced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL062366},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 2,
volume = 42,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jan 20 00:00:00 EST 2015},
month = {Tue Jan 20 00:00:00 EST 2015}
}
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