Title: Multiscale modeling of spring phenology across Deciduous Forests in the Eastern United States

Abstract

Abstract Phenological events, such as bud burst, are strongly linked to ecosystem processes in temperate deciduous forests. However, the exact nature and magnitude of how seasonal and interannual variation in air temperatures influence phenology is poorly understood, and model‐based phenology representations fail to capture local‐ to regional‐scale variability arising from differences in species composition. In this paper, we use a combination of surface meteorological data, species composition maps, remote sensing, and ground‐based observations to estimate models that better represent how community‐level species composition affects the phenological response of deciduous broadleaf forests to climate forcing at spatial scales that are typically used in ecosystem models. Using time series of canopy greenness from repeat digital photography, citizen science data from the USA National Phenology Network, and satellite remote sensing‐based observations of phenology, we estimated and tested models that predict the timing of spring leaf emergence across five different deciduous broadleaf forest types in the eastern United States. Specifically, we evaluated two different approaches: (i) using species‐specific models in combination with species composition information to ‘upscale’ model predictions and (ii) using repeat digital photography of forest canopies that observe and integrate the phenological behavior of multiple representative species at each camera site tomore » calibrate a single model for all deciduous broadleaf forests. Our results demonstrate variability in cumulative forcing requirements and photoperiod cues across species and forest types, and show how community composition influences phenological dynamics over large areas. At the same time, the response of different species to spatial and interannual variation in weather is, under the current climate regime, sufficiently similar that the generic deciduous forest model based on repeat digital photography performed comparably to the upscaled species‐specific models. More generally, results from this analysis demonstrate how in situ observation networks and remote sensing data can be used to synergistically calibrate and assess regional parameterizations of phenology in models.« less

Authors:

Melaas, Eli K. ^[1]; Friedl, Mark A. ^[1]; Richardson, Andrew D. ^[2]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Department of Earth and Environment Boston University 675 Commonwealth Avenue Boston MA 02215 USA
2. Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology Harvard University HUH, 22 Divinity Avenue Cambridge MA 02138 USA

Publication Date:

Wed Jan 06 00:00:00 EST 2016

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1401160

Grant/Contract Number:  

DE‐SC0016011

Resource Type:

Publisher's Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Global Change Biology

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Name: Global Change Biology Journal Volume: 22 Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1354-1013

Publisher:

Wiley-Blackwell

Country of Publication:

United Kingdom

Language:

English