Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth
Abstract
Abstract Predicting long‐term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree‐ring observations spanning North America and a space‐for‐time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water‐use efficiency ( WUE ) due to CO 2 ‐fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high‐latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued ‘boreal greening’; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change.
- Authors:
-
[1];
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Arizona Bioscience West Tucson AZ USA
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson AZ USA, Dendroclimatology Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland, W. Szafer Institute of Botany Polish Academy of Sciences Krakow Poland
- Department of Ecology Montana State University Bozeman MT USA
- Department of Biology Bryn Mawr College Bryn Mawr PA USA
- Laboratory of Tree‐Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson AZ USA
- Dendroclimatology Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Arizona Bioscience West Tucson AZ USA, Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe NM USA, Center for Environmental Studies Aspen CO USA
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1400774
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐FOA‐000749
- Resource Type:
- Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Ecology Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Ecology Letters Journal Volume: 19 Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1461-023X
- Publisher:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Charney, Noah D., Babst, Flurin, Poulter, Benjamin, Record, Sydne, Trouet, Valerie M., Frank, David, Enquist, Brian J., Evans, Margaret E. K., and Calcagno, ed., Vincent. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth. United Kingdom: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1111/ele.12650.
Charney, Noah D., Babst, Flurin, Poulter, Benjamin, Record, Sydne, Trouet, Valerie M., Frank, David, Enquist, Brian J., Evans, Margaret E. K., & Calcagno, ed., Vincent. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12650
Charney, Noah D., Babst, Flurin, Poulter, Benjamin, Record, Sydne, Trouet, Valerie M., Frank, David, Enquist, Brian J., Evans, Margaret E. K., and Calcagno, ed., Vincent. Tue .
"Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12650.
@article{osti_1400774,
title = {Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth},
author = {Charney, Noah D. and Babst, Flurin and Poulter, Benjamin and Record, Sydne and Trouet, Valerie M. and Frank, David and Enquist, Brian J. and Evans, Margaret E. K. and Calcagno, ed., Vincent},
abstractNote = {Abstract Predicting long‐term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree‐ring observations spanning North America and a space‐for‐time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water‐use efficiency ( WUE ) due to CO 2 ‐fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high‐latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued ‘boreal greening’; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change.},
doi = {10.1111/ele.12650},
journal = {Ecology Letters},
number = 9,
volume = 19,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Tue Jul 19 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Tue Jul 19 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12650
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