Title: Climate‐driven changes to the spatio‐temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe

Abstract

Abstract Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio‐temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q ₀ , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan‐European spatio‐temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q ₀ simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within‐host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q ₀ simulations driven bymore » a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2–3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations.« less

Authors:

Rose, Hannah ^[1]; Caminade, Cyril ^[2]; Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir ^[3]; Phelan, Paul ^[4]; van Dijk, Jan ^[5]; Baylis, Matthew ^[6]; Williams, Diana ^[7]; Morgan, Eric R. ^[8]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. School of Biological Sciences Life Sciences Building University of Bristol Tyndall Avenue Bristol BS8 1TQ UK, School of Veterinary Sciences University of Bristol Langford House Langford Bristol BS40 5DU UK, Cabot Institute University of Bristol Cantocks Close Bristol BS8 1TS UK
2. School of Environmental Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UK, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health The Farr Institute @HeRC University of Liverpool Liverpool L69 3GL UK
3. School of Biological Sciences Life Sciences Building University of Bristol Tyndall Avenue Bristol BS8 1TQ UK, National Veterinary Research Institute P.M.B. 01, Vom Plateau State Nigeria
4. Animal &, Grassland Research and Innovation Centre Teagasc Grange, Dunsanny Co. Meath Ireland
5. Department of Epidemiology and Population Health Institute of Infection and Global Health University of Liverpool, Leahurst Neston Cheshire CH64 7TE UK
6. School of Environmental Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UK, Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections University of Liverpool Neston UK
7. Department of Infection Biology Institute of Infection and Global Health University of Liverpool Liverpool L3 5RF UK
8. School of Veterinary Sciences University of Bristol Langford House Langford Bristol BS40 5DU UK, Cabot Institute University of Bristol Cantocks Close Bristol BS8 1TS UK

Publication Date:

Wed Jan 06 00:00:00 EST 2016

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1400729

Resource Type:

Publisher's Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Global Change Biology

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Name: Global Change Biology Journal Volume: 22 Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1354-1013

Publisher:

Wiley-Blackwell

Country of Publication:

United Kingdom

Language:

English