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Title: Soil thermal dynamics, snow cover, and frozen depth under five temperature treatments in an ombrotrophic bog: Constrained forecast with data assimilation: Forecast With Data Assimilation

Abstract

We report that accurate simulation of soil thermal dynamics is essential for realistic prediction of soil biogeochemical responses to climate change. To facilitate ecological forecasting at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change site, we incorporated a soil temperature module into a Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model by accounting for surface energy budget, snow dynamics, and heat transfer among soil layers and during freeze-thaw events. We conditioned TECO with detailed soil temperature and snow depth observations through data assimilation before the model was used for forecasting. The constrained model reproduced variations in observed temperature from different soil layers, the magnitude of snow depth, the timing of snowfall and snowmelt, and the range of frozen depth. The conditioned TECO forecasted probabilistic distributions of soil temperature dynamics in six soil layers, snow, and frozen depths under temperature treatments of +0.0, +2.25, +4.5, +6.75, and +9.0°C. Air warming caused stronger elevation in soil temperature during summer than winter due to winter snow and ice. And soil temperature increased more in shallow soil layers in summer in response to air warming. Whole ecosystem warming (peat + air warmings) generally reduced snow and frozen depths. The accuracy of forecasted snow and frozen depthsmore » relied on the precision of weather forcing. Uncertainty is smaller for forecasting soil temperature but large for snow and frozen depths. Lastly, timely and effective soil thermal forecast, constrained through data assimilation that combines process-based understanding and detailed observations, provides boundary conditions for better predictions of future biogeochemical cycles.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]
  1. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology
  2. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology ; Nanjing Forestry University (China). Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration in Jiangsu Province, Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province
  3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute
  4. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology ; Tsinghua University, Beijing (China). Department of Earth System Science
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1399947
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1375536
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; SC0008270; SC00114085; 4000144122; SC0014085; EF 1137293; OIA-1301789
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 122; Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-8953
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Huang, Yuanyuan, Jiang, Jiang, Ma, Shuang, Ricciuto, Daniel, Hanson, Paul J., and Luo, Yiqi. Soil thermal dynamics, snow cover, and frozen depth under five temperature treatments in an ombrotrophic bog: Constrained forecast with data assimilation: Forecast With Data Assimilation. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/2016JG003725.
Huang, Yuanyuan, Jiang, Jiang, Ma, Shuang, Ricciuto, Daniel, Hanson, Paul J., & Luo, Yiqi. Soil thermal dynamics, snow cover, and frozen depth under five temperature treatments in an ombrotrophic bog: Constrained forecast with data assimilation: Forecast With Data Assimilation. United States. doi:10.1002/2016JG003725.
Huang, Yuanyuan, Jiang, Jiang, Ma, Shuang, Ricciuto, Daniel, Hanson, Paul J., and Luo, Yiqi. Fri . "Soil thermal dynamics, snow cover, and frozen depth under five temperature treatments in an ombrotrophic bog: Constrained forecast with data assimilation: Forecast With Data Assimilation". United States. doi:10.1002/2016JG003725. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1399947.
@article{osti_1399947,
title = {Soil thermal dynamics, snow cover, and frozen depth under five temperature treatments in an ombrotrophic bog: Constrained forecast with data assimilation: Forecast With Data Assimilation},
author = {Huang, Yuanyuan and Jiang, Jiang and Ma, Shuang and Ricciuto, Daniel and Hanson, Paul J. and Luo, Yiqi},
abstractNote = {We report that accurate simulation of soil thermal dynamics is essential for realistic prediction of soil biogeochemical responses to climate change. To facilitate ecological forecasting at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change site, we incorporated a soil temperature module into a Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model by accounting for surface energy budget, snow dynamics, and heat transfer among soil layers and during freeze-thaw events. We conditioned TECO with detailed soil temperature and snow depth observations through data assimilation before the model was used for forecasting. The constrained model reproduced variations in observed temperature from different soil layers, the magnitude of snow depth, the timing of snowfall and snowmelt, and the range of frozen depth. The conditioned TECO forecasted probabilistic distributions of soil temperature dynamics in six soil layers, snow, and frozen depths under temperature treatments of +0.0, +2.25, +4.5, +6.75, and +9.0°C. Air warming caused stronger elevation in soil temperature during summer than winter due to winter snow and ice. And soil temperature increased more in shallow soil layers in summer in response to air warming. Whole ecosystem warming (peat + air warmings) generally reduced snow and frozen depths. The accuracy of forecasted snow and frozen depths relied on the precision of weather forcing. Uncertainty is smaller for forecasting soil temperature but large for snow and frozen depths. Lastly, timely and effective soil thermal forecast, constrained through data assimilation that combines process-based understanding and detailed observations, provides boundary conditions for better predictions of future biogeochemical cycles.},
doi = {10.1002/2016JG003725},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences},
number = 8,
volume = 122,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {8}
}

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model
    journal, January 2015


    Intermediate-scale community-level flux of CO2 and CH4 in a Minnesota peatland: putting the SPRUCE project in a global context
    journal, August 2016


    Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming
    journal, August 2011

    • Koven, C. D.; Ringeval, B.; Friedlingstein, P.
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, Issue 36
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1103910108

    Contemporary carbon balance and late Holocene carbon accumulation in a northern peatland
    journal, February 2007


    Impact of snow cover on soil temperature and its simulation in a boreal aspen forest
    journal, May 2008


    Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
    journal, April 2015

    • Schuur, E. A. G.; McGuire, A. D.; Schädel, C.
    • Nature, Vol. 520, Issue 7546
    • DOI: 10.1038/nature14338

    Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century
    journal, January 2014

    • Todd-Brown, K. E. O.; Randerson, J. T.; Hopkins, F.
    • Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 8
    • DOI: 10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014

    Soil Warming and Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks to the Climate System
    journal, December 2002


    Inverse analysis of coupled carbon–nitrogen cycles against multiple datasets at ambient and elevated CO 2
    journal, September 2015

    • Shi, Zheng; Yang, Yuanhe; Zhou, Xuhui
    • Journal of Plant Ecology, Vol. 9, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtv059

    A comprehensive data acquisition and management system for an ecosystem-scale peatland warming and elevated CO 2 experiment
    journal, January 2015

    • Krassovski, M. B.; Riggs, J. S.; Hook, L. A.
    • Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems, Vol. 4, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/gi-4-203-2015

    Simulating pan-Arctic runoff with a macro-scale terrestrial water balance model
    journal, January 2003

    • Rawlins, Michael A.; Lammers, Richard B.; Frolking, Steve
    • Hydrological Processes, Vol. 17, Issue 13
    • DOI: 10.1002/hyp.1271

    Soil-carbon response to warming dependent on microbial physiology
    journal, April 2010

    • Allison, Steven D.; Wallenstein, Matthew D.; Bradford, Mark A.
    • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo846

    Temperature Dependence of Soil Hydraulic Properties1
    journal, January 1986


    Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change
    journal, March 2006


    The Prediction of mean Monthly soil Temperature from mean Monthly air Temperature
    journal, January 1978


    A new approach to quantifying soil temperature responses to changing air temperature and snow cover
    journal, August 2012


    Simulation of soil temperature in crops
    journal, September 1992


    Effect of Climate Change on Soil Temperature in Swedish Boreal Forests
    journal, April 2014


    Effect of snow removal on leaf water potential, soil moisture, leaf and soil nutrient status and leaf peroxidase activity of sugar maple
    journal, May 1994

    • Pilon, Christian E.; C�t�, Beno�t; Fyles, James W.
    • Plant and Soil, Vol. 162, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1007/bf01416092

    Methods for estimating temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter based on incubation data: A comparative evaluation
    journal, January 2015


    A Physically Based Model of Soil Freezing in Humid Climates Using Air Temperature and Snow Cover Data
    journal, June 1996


    Inference from Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences
    journal, November 1992


    Incorporating organic soil into a global climate model
    journal, June 2007


    Simulated high-latitude soil thermal dynamics during the past 4 decades
    journal, January 2016


    An observation-based assessment of the influences of air temperature and snow depth on soil temperature in Russia
    journal, May 2014

    • Park, Hotaek; Sherstiukov, Artem B.; Fedorov, Alexander N.
    • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064026

    The role of snow cover affecting boreal-arctic soil freeze–thaw and carbon dynamics
    journal, January 2015


    Effects of Frozen Soil on Soil Temperature, Spring Infiltration, and Runoff: Results from the PILPS 2(d) Experiment at Valdai, Russia
    journal, April 2003


    Carbon quality and the temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon decomposition in a tallgrass prairie
    journal, July 2012


    Causes of variation in soil carbon simulations from CMIP5 Earth system models and comparison with observations
    journal, January 2013

    • Todd-Brown, K. E. O.; Randerson, J. T.; Post, W. M.
    • Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.5194/bg-10-1717-2013

    Ecological forecasting and data assimilation in a data-rich era
    journal, July 2011

    • Luo, Yiqi; Ogle, Kiona; Tucker, Colin
    • Ecological Applications, Vol. 21, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.1890/09-1275.1