A model for simulating adaptive, dynamic flows on networks: Application to petroleum infrastructure

Journal Article · 03 October 2017 · Reliability Engineering and System Safety

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.09.026 · OSTI ID:1399875

Corbet, Thomas F. ^[1]; Beyeler, Walt ^[1]; Wilson, Michael L. ^[1]; Flanagan, Tatiana P. ^[1]

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1. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Simulation models can greatly improve decisions meant to control the consequences of disruptions to critical infrastructures. We describe a dynamic flow model on networks purposed to inform analyses by those concerned about consequences of disruptions to infrastructures and to help policy makers design robust mitigations. We conceptualize the adaptive responses of infrastructure networks to perturbations as market transactions and business decisions of operators. We approximate commodity flows in these networks by a diffusion equation, with nonlinearities introduced to model capacity limits. To illustrate the behavior and scalability of the model, we show its application first on two simple networks, then on petroleum infrastructure in the United States, where we analyze the effects of a hypothesized earthquake.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: US Department of Homeland Security (DHS); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000; NA0003525
• OSTI ID: 1399875
• Alternate ID(s): OSTI ID: 1549255
• Report Number(s): SAND2016-5684J; 642557
• Journal Information: Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 169, Issue C; ISSN 0951-8320
• Publisher: ElsevierCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English