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This content will become publicly available on September 13, 2018

Title: Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus: SPATIAL COVERAGE AND BIAS IN TREND

Historically, in-situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of Surface Air Temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19 °C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23 °C/decade during 1921-2015. Mean- while, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71 °C/decade over 1998-2015, which is two to three times faster than the rate established from the gridded datasets. Focusing on the "hiatus" period 1998-2012 as identied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45 °C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951- 2012. We suggest that sparse in-situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded datasets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.
Authors:
 [1] ; ORCiD logo [2] ;  [3] ; ORCiD logo [4] ; ORCiD logo [5] ;  [1] ; ORCiD logo [3] ; ORCiD logo [2] ; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. Lanzhou Univ. (China)
  3. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
  4. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); U.S. Geological Survey, Lakewood, CO (United States)
  5. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-17-23052
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 44; Journal Issue: 17; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Research Org:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth Sciences
OSTI Identifier:
1396127