skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus: SPATIAL COVERAGE AND BIAS IN TREND

Abstract

Historically, in-situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of Surface Air Temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19 °C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23 °C/decade during 1921-2015. Mean- while, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71 °C/decade over 1998-2015, which is two to three times faster than the rate established from the gridded datasets. Focusing on the "hiatus" period 1998-2012 as identied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45 °C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951- 2012. We suggest that sparse in-situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded datasets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.

Authors:
 [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5];  [1]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. Lanzhou Univ. (China)
  3. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
  4. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); U.S. Geological Survey, Lakewood, CO (United States)
  5. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1396127
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-17-23052
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-06NA25396
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 44; Journal Issue: 17; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth Sciences

Citation Formats

Wang, Kang, Zhang, Tingjun, Zhang, Xiangdong, Clow, Gary D., Jafarov, Elchin E., Overeem, Irina, Romanovsky, Vladimir, Peng, Xiaoqing, and Cao, Bin. Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus: SPATIAL COVERAGE AND BIAS IN TREND. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/2017GL074232.
Wang, Kang, Zhang, Tingjun, Zhang, Xiangdong, Clow, Gary D., Jafarov, Elchin E., Overeem, Irina, Romanovsky, Vladimir, Peng, Xiaoqing, & Cao, Bin. Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus: SPATIAL COVERAGE AND BIAS IN TREND. United States. doi:10.1002/2017GL074232.
Wang, Kang, Zhang, Tingjun, Zhang, Xiangdong, Clow, Gary D., Jafarov, Elchin E., Overeem, Irina, Romanovsky, Vladimir, Peng, Xiaoqing, and Cao, Bin. Wed . "Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus: SPATIAL COVERAGE AND BIAS IN TREND". United States. doi:10.1002/2017GL074232. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1396127.
@article{osti_1396127,
title = {Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus: SPATIAL COVERAGE AND BIAS IN TREND},
author = {Wang, Kang and Zhang, Tingjun and Zhang, Xiangdong and Clow, Gary D. and Jafarov, Elchin E. and Overeem, Irina and Romanovsky, Vladimir and Peng, Xiaoqing and Cao, Bin},
abstractNote = {Historically, in-situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of Surface Air Temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19 °C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23 °C/decade during 1921-2015. Mean- while, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71 °C/decade over 1998-2015, which is two to three times faster than the rate established from the gridded datasets. Focusing on the "hiatus" period 1998-2012 as identied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45 °C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951- 2012. We suggest that sparse in-situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded datasets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074232},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 17,
volume = 44,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {9}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 7 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

A 10 year climatology of Arctic cloud fraction and radiative forcing at Barrow, Alaska
journal, January 2010

  • Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike; Crosby, Kathryn
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue D17
  • DOI: 10.1029/2009JD013489

Using Climate Divisions to Analyze Variations and Trends in Alaska Temperature and Precipitation
journal, April 2014


Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus
journal, February 2014

  • England, Matthew H.; McGregor, Shayne; Spence, Paul
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2106

The Significance of the 1976 Pacific Climate Shift in the Climatology of Alaska
journal, November 2005

  • Hartmann, Brian; Wendler, Gerd
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 22
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3532.1

Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming
journal, August 2014

  • Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Branstator, Grant
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2341

The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts: Atmospheric Role in Arctic Water Cycle
journal, March 2016

  • Vihma, Timo; Screen, James; Tjernström, Michael
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 121, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/2015JG003132

Impact of Clouds on Surface Radiative Fluxes and Snowmelt in the Arctic and Subarctic
journal, September 1996


The recent global warming hiatus: What is the role of Pacific variability?: Pacific role in global-warming hiatus
journal, February 2015

  • Douville, H.; Voldoire, A.; Geoffroy, O.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062775

Intensified warming of the Arctic: Causes and impacts on middle latitudes
journal, June 2014


Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus
journal, June 2015


The circumpolar active layer monitoring (calm) program: Research designs and initial results 1
journal, July 2000


Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’
journal, May 2017

  • Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B.; Fischer, Erich M.
  • Nature, Vol. 545, Issue 7652
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature22315

Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends: Coverage Bias in the HadCRUT4 Temperature Series
journal, February 2014

  • Cowtan, Kevin; Way, Robert G.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 140, Issue 683
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.2297

Global Surface Temperature Change
journal, January 2010


Station Density Strategy for Monitoring Long-Term Climatic Change in the Contiguous United States
journal, January 2004


Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature
journal, February 2014

  • Santer, Benjamin D.; Bonfils, Céline; Painter, Jeffrey F.
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2098

The recent warming trend in North Greenland: RECENT WARMING TREND IN NORTH GREENLAND
journal, June 2017

  • Orsi, Anais J.; Kawamura, Kenji; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1002/2016GL072212

The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification
journal, January 2009

  • Serreze, M. C.; Barrett, A. P.; Stroeve, J. C.
  • The Cryosphere, Vol. 3, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.5194/tc-3-11-2009

Climatology and Interannual Variability of Arctic Cyclone Activity: 1948–2002
journal, June 2004


Climate Divisions for Alaska Based on Objective Methods
journal, July 2012

  • Bieniek, Peter A.; Bhatt, Uma S.; Thoman, Richard L.
  • Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 51, Issue 7
  • DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-11-0168.1

Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming
journal, September 2014

  • Meehl, Gerald A.; Teng, Haiyan; Arblaster, Julie M.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2357

Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming
journal, February 2015

  • Roberts, C. D.; Palmer, M. D.; McNeall, D.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2531

A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011
journal, January 2013

  • A. Muller, Richard; Rohde, Robert; Jacobsen, Robert
  • Geoinformatics & Geostatistics: An Overview, Vol. 01, Issue 01
  • DOI: 10.4172/2327-4581.1000101

Mesoscale Climatology and Variation of Surface Winds over the Chukchi–Beaufort Coastal Areas
journal, April 2016


Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset: UPDATED HIGH-RESOLUTION GRIDS OF MONTHLY CLIMATIC OBSERVATIONS
journal, May 2013

  • Harris, I.; Jones, P. D.; Osborn, T. J.
  • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 34, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/joc.3711

The influence of station density on climate data homogenization: STATION DENSITY AND HOMOGENIZATION
journal, June 2017

  • Gubler, S.; Hunziker, S.; Begert, M.
  • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 37, Issue 13
  • DOI: 10.1002/joc.5114

Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system
journal, January 2008

  • Zhang, Xiangdong; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Zhang, Jing
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, Issue 22
  • DOI: 10.1029/2008GL035607

Arctic decadal and interdecadal variability
journal, December 2000

  • Polyakov, Igor V.; Johnson, Mark A.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 27, Issue 24
  • DOI: 10.1029/2000GL011909

Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather
journal, August 2014

  • Cohen, Judah; Screen, James A.; Furtado, Jason C.
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2234

Spatial variability of daily weather variables in the high plains of the USA
journal, March 1994


Underestimated warming of northern Canada in the Berkeley Earth temperature product: UNDERESTIMATED WARMING IN BETPELEY EARTH
journal, June 2016

  • Way, Robert G.; Oliva, Frank; Viau, Andre E.
  • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 37, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1002/joc.4808

Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown
journal, February 2016

  • Fyfe, John C.; Meehl, Gerald A.; England, Matthew H.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2938