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Title: Detecting sulphate aerosol geoengineering with different methods

Sulphate aerosol injection has been widely discussed as a possible way to engineer future climate. Monitoring it would require detecting its effects amidst internal variability and in the presence of other external forcings. Here, we investigate how the use of different detection methods and filtering techniques affects the detectability of sulphate aerosol geoengineering in annual-mean global-mean near-surface air temperature. This is done by assuming a future scenario that injects 5 Tg yr -1 of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere and cross-comparing simulations from 5 climate models. 64% of the studied comparisons would require 25 years or more for detection when no filter and the multi-variate method that has been extensively used for attributing climate change are used, while 66% of the same comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection using a trend-based filter. This then highlights the high sensitivity of sulphate aerosol geoengineering detectability to the choice of filter. With the same trend-based filter but a non-stationary method, 80% of the comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection. This does not imply sulphate aerosol geoengineering should be deployed, but suggests that both detection methods could be used for monitoring geoengineering in global, annual mean temperature shouldmore » it be needed.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [1]
  1. University of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology
  2. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Publication Date:
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Scientific Reports
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 6; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Research Org:
University of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom); Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; attribution; projection and prediction
OSTI Identifier:
1393908

Lo, Y. T. Eunice, Charlton-Perez, Andrew J., Lott, Fraser C., and Highwood, Eleanor J.. Detecting sulphate aerosol geoengineering with different methods. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1038/srep39169.
Lo, Y. T. Eunice, Charlton-Perez, Andrew J., Lott, Fraser C., & Highwood, Eleanor J.. Detecting sulphate aerosol geoengineering with different methods. United States. doi:10.1038/srep39169.
Lo, Y. T. Eunice, Charlton-Perez, Andrew J., Lott, Fraser C., and Highwood, Eleanor J.. 2016. "Detecting sulphate aerosol geoengineering with different methods". United States. doi:10.1038/srep39169. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1393908.
@article{osti_1393908,
title = {Detecting sulphate aerosol geoengineering with different methods},
author = {Lo, Y. T. Eunice and Charlton-Perez, Andrew J. and Lott, Fraser C. and Highwood, Eleanor J.},
abstractNote = {Sulphate aerosol injection has been widely discussed as a possible way to engineer future climate. Monitoring it would require detecting its effects amidst internal variability and in the presence of other external forcings. Here, we investigate how the use of different detection methods and filtering techniques affects the detectability of sulphate aerosol geoengineering in annual-mean global-mean near-surface air temperature. This is done by assuming a future scenario that injects 5 Tg yr-1 of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere and cross-comparing simulations from 5 climate models. 64% of the studied comparisons would require 25 years or more for detection when no filter and the multi-variate method that has been extensively used for attributing climate change are used, while 66% of the same comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection using a trend-based filter. This then highlights the high sensitivity of sulphate aerosol geoengineering detectability to the choice of filter. With the same trend-based filter but a non-stationary method, 80% of the comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection. This does not imply sulphate aerosol geoengineering should be deployed, but suggests that both detection methods could be used for monitoring geoengineering in global, annual mean temperature should it be needed.},
doi = {10.1038/srep39169},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = 1,
volume = 6,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {12}
}