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Title: Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations

The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We also assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereas current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. Furthemore, the choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the futuremore » GPLLJ climatology.« less
Authors:
 [1] ; ORCiD logo [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [3]
  1. Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States). Dept. of Geography
  2. US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA). Lansing, MI (United States). Northern Research Station
  3. Univ. of Michigan, Dearborn, MI (United States). Dept. of Social Science
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
BCS-0924768; BCS-0924816
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Scientific Reports
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Research Org:
Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States). Dept. of Geography; Univ. of Michigan, Dearborn, MI (United States). Dept. of Social Science
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE; National Science Foundation (NSF); USDA; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate sciences; environmental sciences
OSTI Identifier:
1392989

Tang, Ying, Winkler, Julie, Zhong, Shiyuan, Bian, Xindi, Doubler, Dana, Yu, Lejiang, and Walters, Claudia. Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-05135-0.
Tang, Ying, Winkler, Julie, Zhong, Shiyuan, Bian, Xindi, Doubler, Dana, Yu, Lejiang, & Walters, Claudia. Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations. United States. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-05135-0.
Tang, Ying, Winkler, Julie, Zhong, Shiyuan, Bian, Xindi, Doubler, Dana, Yu, Lejiang, and Walters, Claudia. 2017. "Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations". United States. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-05135-0. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1392989.
@article{osti_1392989,
title = {Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations},
author = {Tang, Ying and Winkler, Julie and Zhong, Shiyuan and Bian, Xindi and Doubler, Dana and Yu, Lejiang and Walters, Claudia},
abstractNote = {The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We also assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereas current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. Furthemore, the choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the future GPLLJ climatology.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-05135-0},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = 1,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {7}
}