Search Menu
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Search Scholarly Publications

Title: International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls

Abstract

There is increasing interest in the water–food nexus, especially the restrictive effect of water on food production in hot spots where irrigation stress is growing. However, little is known about the larger-scale implications of future irrigation shortfalls for global trade and economic welfare, as well as of the potential buffering impacts of international trade on the local impacts of irrigation shortage. Hear in this paper, we utilize a recently developed model, GTAP-BIO-W, to study the economic effects of changes in irrigation outlook for 126 river basins, globally by 2030. Projected irrigation availability is obtained from the IMPACT-WATER model, and imposed upon the present-day economy. Irrigation availability in 2030 is expected to drop by 30–60% in several key rivers basins, including: Hai He, Indus, Luni, and the Eastern Mediterranean basin, leading to significant output declines in China, South Asia, and the Middle East. We find that the regional production impacts of future irrigation water shortages are quite heterogeneous, depending on the size of the shortfall, the irrigation intensity of crop production, the possibility of expanding rainfed areas, as well as the crop mix. These changes in regional output significantly alter the geography of international trade. To compensate for the loss ofmore » productivity caused by the irrigation constraint, an estimated 7.6 million hectares of cropland expansion is needed to meet the demand for food. In spite of the remarkable reduction of irrigation in some basins, the resulting welfare impact is relatively modest as a result of the buffering capacity of global markets. Finally, the global welfare loss amounts to $3.7 billion (2001 prices) and results from a combination of the reduction in irrigation availability as well as the interplay with agricultural support policies.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1392746
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1457401
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0005171
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Global Environmental Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Global Environmental Change Journal Volume: 29 Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Irrigation availability; International agricultural trade; Water–food nexus; CGE modeling

Citation Formats

Liu, Jing, Hertel, Thomas W., Taheripour, Farzad, Zhu, Tingju, and Ringler, Claudia. International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls. United Kingdom: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.010.
Copy to clipboard
Liu, Jing, Hertel, Thomas W., Taheripour, Farzad, Zhu, Tingju, & Ringler, Claudia. International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.010
Copy to clipboard
Liu, Jing, Hertel, Thomas W., Taheripour, Farzad, Zhu, Tingju, and Ringler, Claudia. Sat . "International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.010.
Copy to clipboard
@article{osti_1392746,
title = {International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls},
author = {Liu, Jing and Hertel, Thomas W. and Taheripour, Farzad and Zhu, Tingju and Ringler, Claudia},
abstractNote = {There is increasing interest in the water–food nexus, especially the restrictive effect of water on food production in hot spots where irrigation stress is growing. However, little is known about the larger-scale implications of future irrigation shortfalls for global trade and economic welfare, as well as of the potential buffering impacts of international trade on the local impacts of irrigation shortage. Hear in this paper, we utilize a recently developed model, GTAP-BIO-W, to study the economic effects of changes in irrigation outlook for 126 river basins, globally by 2030. Projected irrigation availability is obtained from the IMPACT-WATER model, and imposed upon the present-day economy. Irrigation availability in 2030 is expected to drop by 30–60% in several key rivers basins, including: Hai He, Indus, Luni, and the Eastern Mediterranean basin, leading to significant output declines in China, South Asia, and the Middle East. We find that the regional production impacts of future irrigation water shortages are quite heterogeneous, depending on the size of the shortfall, the irrigation intensity of crop production, the possibility of expanding rainfed areas, as well as the crop mix. These changes in regional output significantly alter the geography of international trade. To compensate for the loss of productivity caused by the irrigation constraint, an estimated 7.6 million hectares of cropland expansion is needed to meet the demand for food. In spite of the remarkable reduction of irrigation in some basins, the resulting welfare impact is relatively modest as a result of the buffering capacity of global markets. Finally, the global welfare loss amounts to $3.7 billion (2001 prices) and results from a combination of the reduction in irrigation availability as well as the interplay with agricultural support policies.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.010},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
number = C,
volume = 29,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Sat Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2014},
month = {Sat Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2014}
}
Copy to clipboard
Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.010
Copyright Statement
Other availability
Search WorldCat Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 41 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Save / Share:
Export Metadata
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.

Works referencing / citing this record:

Possible pathways and tensions in the food and water nexus
journal, May 2017

  • Grafton, R. Quentin; Williams, John; Jiang, Qiang
  • Earth's Future, Vol. 5, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1002/2016ef000506

Economic costs of reduced irrigation water availability in Uzbekistan (Central Asia)
journal, April 2016

Cross-border climate change impacts: implications for the European Union
journal, January 2019

  • Benzie, Magnus; Carter, Timothy R.; Carlsen, Henrik
  • Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10113-018-1436-1

The challenges of sustainably feeding a growing planet
journal, March 2015

Climate and southern Africa's water–energy–food nexus
journal, August 2015

  • Conway, Declan; van Garderen, Emma Archer; Deryng, Delphine
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2735

Achieving sustainable irrigation water withdrawals: global impacts on food security and land use
journal, October 2017

  • Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas W.; Lammers, Richard B.
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa88db

Integrated Solutions for the Water-Energy-Land Nexus: Are Global Models Rising to the Challenge?
journal, October 2019

  • Johnson, Nils; Burek, Peter; Byers, Edward
  • Water, Vol. 11, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.3390/w11112223

Is the Glass Half Empty Or Half Full?: Issues in Managing Water Challenges and Policy Instruments
journal, January 2015

    Sort by:
    [ × clear filter / sort ]

    Similar Records in DOE PAGES and OSTI.GOV collections: