Title: Modeling the impacts of wood pellet demand on forest dynamics in southeastern United States

Abstract

Here, the export of wood pellets from the southeastern United States (USA) has grown significantly in recent years, following rising demand from Europe. Increased wood pellet demand could lead to spatially variable changes in timberland management and area in the USA. This study presents an assessment of the impacts of increasing wood pellet demand (an additional 11.6 Mt by 2030) on land–use dynamics, taking into account developments in other wood product markets as well as expected changes in other land uses. An economic model for the forest sector of the southeastern USA (SRTS) was linked to a land–use change model (PLUC) to identify potential locations of land–use change following scenarios of demand for pellets and other wood products. Projections show that in the absence of additional demand for wood pellets, natural timberland area is projected to decline by 450–15 000 km ² by 2030, mainly through urbanization and pine plantation establishment. Under the high wood pellet demand scenario, more (2000–7500 km ²) natural timberland area is retained and more (8000–20 000 km ²) pine plantation is established. Shifts from natural timberland to pine plantation occur predominantly in the Atlantic coastal region. Future work will assess the impact of projected transitionsmore » in natural timberland and pine plantations on biodiversity and carbon storage. This modeling framework can be applied for multiple scenarios and land–use projections to identify locations of timberland area changes for the whole southeastern USA, thereby informing the debate about potential impacts of wood pellet demand on land–use dynamics and environmental services.« less

Authors:

Duden, Anna S.  ^[1];

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Verweij, Pita A. ^[1]; Junginger, H. Martin ^[1]; Abt, Robert C. ^[2]; Henderson, Jesse D. ^[2]; Dale, Virginia H.  ^[3];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-4123-7202"
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Kline, Keith L.  ^[3];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-2294-1170"
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Karssenberg, Derek ^[1]; Verstegen, Judith A. ^[1]; Faaij, André P. C. ^[4]; van der Hilst, Floor ^[1]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (Netherlands)
2. North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)
3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
4. Univ. of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)

Publication Date:

2017-09-14

Research Org.:

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1390375

Alternate Identifier(s):

OSTI ID: 1390378; OSTI ID: 1468272

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC05-00OR22725; DE‐AC05‐00OR22725

Resource Type:

Published Article

Journal Name:

Biofuels, Bioproducts & Biorefining

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 1932-104X

Publisher:

Wiley

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; wood pellets; bioenergy; land‐use change; spatial variation; modeling; southeastern USA