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Title: Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. In conclusion, our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [3] ;  [1] ;  [3] ;  [5] ;  [1] ;  [3] ;  [6] ;  [7]
  1. Durham Univ., Durham (United Kingdom)
  2. Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs, NY (United States)
  3. Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)
  4. Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (United States)
  5. Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)
  6. Institute of Archaeology, Belmopan (Belize); Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
  7. Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Ruhr-Univ. Bochum, Bochum (Germany)
Publication Date:
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Scientific Reports
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 6; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Research Org:
Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (United States); Pennsylvania State univ., University Park, PA (United States); Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Governance; Natural hazards; Palaeoclimate
OSTI Identifier:
1389638