Significant inconsistency of vegetation carbon density in CMIP5 Earth system models against observational data
Abstract
Earth system models (ESMs) have been widely used for projecting global vegetation carbon dynamics, yet how well ESMs performed for simulating vegetation carbon density remains untested. Here we have compiled observational data of vegetation carbon density from literature and existing data sets to evaluate nine ESMs at site, biome, latitude, and global scales. Three variables—root (including fine and coarse roots), total vegetation carbon density, and the root:total vegetation carbon ratios (R/T ratios), were chosen for ESM evaluation. ESM models performed well in simulating the spatial distribution of carbon densities in root (r = 0.71) and total vegetation (r = 0.62). However, ESM models had significant biases in simulating absolute carbon densities in root and total vegetation biomass across the majority of land ecosystems, especially in tropical and arctic ecosystems. Particularly, ESMs significantly overestimated carbon density in root (183%) and total vegetation biomass (167%) in climate zones of 10°S–10°N. Substantial discrepancies between modeled and observed R/T ratios were found: the R/T ratios from ESMs were relatively constant, approximately 0.2 across all ecosystems, along latitudinal gradients, and in tropic, temperate, and arctic climatic zones, which was significantly different from the observed large variations in the R/T ratios (0.1–0.8). There were substantial inconsistenciesmore »
- Authors:
-
[2];
[2];
[3];
[2];
[5]
- Biology Department San Diego State University San Diego California USA, Biology Department University of Texas at El Paso El Paso Texas USA
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge Tennessee USA
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
- Biology Department San Diego State University San Diego California USA
- Biology Department San Diego State University San Diego California USA, Biology Department University of Texas at El Paso El Paso Texas USA, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of Sciences Changchun China
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1389091
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1389092; OSTI ID: 1393808
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐AC05‐00OR22725; AC05-00OR22725; ACI-1053575
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences Journal Volume: 122 Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-8953
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; carbon density; root; vegetation; root/vegetation ratio; Earth system models
Citation Formats
Song, Xia, Hoffman, Forrest M., Iversen, Colleen M., Yin, Yunhe, Kumar, Jitendra, Ma, Chun, and Xu, Xiaofeng. Significant inconsistency of vegetation carbon density in CMIP5 Earth system models against observational data. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1002/2017JG003914.
Song, Xia, Hoffman, Forrest M., Iversen, Colleen M., Yin, Yunhe, Kumar, Jitendra, Ma, Chun, & Xu, Xiaofeng. Significant inconsistency of vegetation carbon density in CMIP5 Earth system models against observational data. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG003914
Song, Xia, Hoffman, Forrest M., Iversen, Colleen M., Yin, Yunhe, Kumar, Jitendra, Ma, Chun, and Xu, Xiaofeng. Sat .
"Significant inconsistency of vegetation carbon density in CMIP5 Earth system models against observational data". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG003914.
@article{osti_1389091,
title = {Significant inconsistency of vegetation carbon density in CMIP5 Earth system models against observational data},
author = {Song, Xia and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Iversen, Colleen M. and Yin, Yunhe and Kumar, Jitendra and Ma, Chun and Xu, Xiaofeng},
abstractNote = {Earth system models (ESMs) have been widely used for projecting global vegetation carbon dynamics, yet how well ESMs performed for simulating vegetation carbon density remains untested. Here we have compiled observational data of vegetation carbon density from literature and existing data sets to evaluate nine ESMs at site, biome, latitude, and global scales. Three variables—root (including fine and coarse roots), total vegetation carbon density, and the root:total vegetation carbon ratios (R/T ratios), were chosen for ESM evaluation. ESM models performed well in simulating the spatial distribution of carbon densities in root (r = 0.71) and total vegetation (r = 0.62). However, ESM models had significant biases in simulating absolute carbon densities in root and total vegetation biomass across the majority of land ecosystems, especially in tropical and arctic ecosystems. Particularly, ESMs significantly overestimated carbon density in root (183%) and total vegetation biomass (167%) in climate zones of 10°S–10°N. Substantial discrepancies between modeled and observed R/T ratios were found: the R/T ratios from ESMs were relatively constant, approximately 0.2 across all ecosystems, along latitudinal gradients, and in tropic, temperate, and arctic climatic zones, which was significantly different from the observed large variations in the R/T ratios (0.1–0.8). There were substantial inconsistencies between ESM-derived carbon density in root and total vegetation biomass and the R/T ratio at multiple scales, indicating urgent needs for model improvements on carbon allocation algorithms and more intensive field campaigns targeting carbon density in all key vegetation components.},
doi = {10.1002/2017JG003914},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences},
number = 9,
volume = 122,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {9}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG003914
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG003914
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 2 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
A validation of heat and carbon fluxes from high-resolution land surface and regional models
journal, January 2010
- Anav, Alessandro; D'Andrea, Fabio; Viovy, Nicolas
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue G4
Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model
journal, January 2009
- Thornton, P. E.; Doney, S. C.; Lindsay, K.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 6, Issue 10
Multiple steady-states in the terrestrial atmosphere-biosphere system: a result of a discrete vegetation classification?
journal, January 2007
- Kleidon, A.; Fraedrich, K.; Low, C.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 4, Issue 5
Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
journal, April 2015
- Schuur, E. A. G.; McGuire, A. D.; Schädel, C.
- Nature, Vol. 520, Issue 7546
GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models. Part II: Carbon System Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics
journal, April 2013
- Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Shevliakova, Elena
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 7
Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO 2 fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models : Seasonal cycle of CO2 fluxes
journal, January 2015
- Peng, Shushi; Ciais, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 29, Issue 1
Relative information contributions of model vs. data to short- and long-term forecasts of forest carbon dynamics
journal, July 2011
- Weng, Ensheng; Luo, Yiqi
- Ecological Applications, Vol. 21, Issue 5
The unseen iceberg: plant roots in arctic tundra
journal, September 2014
- Iversen, Colleen M.; Sloan, Victoria L.; Sullivan, Patrick F.
- New Phytologist, Vol. 205, Issue 1
Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO 2
journal, December 2013
- Friend, Andrew D.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming: AMOUNT AND TIMING OF PERMAFROST CARBON RELEASE
journal, February 2011
- Schaefer, Kevin; Zhang, Tingjun; Bruhwiler, Lori
- Tellus B, Vol. 63, Issue 2
Forest turnover rates follow global and regional patterns of productivity: Patterns in forest turnover rates
journal, April 2005
- Stephenson, Nathan L.; Mantgem, Phillip J.
- Ecology Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 5
Analysis of Factors Controlling Soil Organic Matter Levels in Great Plains Grasslands1
journal, January 1987
- Parton, W. J.; Schimel, D. S.; Cole, C. V.
- Soil Science Society of America Journal, Vol. 51, Issue 5
The global carbon dioxide flux in soil respiration and its relationship to vegetation and climate
journal, April 1992
- Raich, J. W.; Schlesinger, W. H.
- Tellus B, Vol. 44, Issue 2
A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system: DVGM FOR COUPLED CLIMATE STUDIES
journal, February 2005
- Krinner, G.; Viovy, Nicolas; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 19, Issue 1
Critical analysis of root : shoot ratios in terrestrial biomes
journal, January 2006
- Mokany, Karel; Raison, R. John; Prokushkin, Anatoly S.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 12, Issue 1
Scale-Dependent Performance of CMIP5 Earth System Models in Simulating Terrestrial Vegetation Carbon
journal, July 2015
- Jiang, Lifen; Yan, Yaner; Hararuk, Oleksandra
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 13
Evaluating the Land and Ocean Components of the Global Carbon Cycle in the CMIP5 Earth System Models
journal, September 2013
- Anav, A.; Friedlingstein, P.; Kidston, M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18
A framework for benchmarking land models
journal, January 2012
- Luo, Y. Q.; Randerson, J. T.; Abramowitz, G.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 9, Issue 10
Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems
journal, September 2014
- Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava
- Nature, Vol. 514, Issue 7521
Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium
journal, January 2010
- Jungclaus, J. H.; Lorenz, S. J.; Timmreck, C.
- Climate of the Past, Vol. 6, Issue 5
Causes and implications of persistent atmospheric carbon dioxide biases in Earth System Models
journal, February 2014
- Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Arora, V. K.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 119, Issue 2
Root structural and functional dynamics in terrestrial biosphere models - evaluation and recommendations
journal, September 2014
- Warren, Jeffrey M.; Hanson, Paul J.; Iversen, Colleen M.
- New Phytologist, Vol. 205, Issue 1
Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century
journal, January 2014
- Todd-Brown, K. E. O.; Randerson, J. T.; Hopkins, F.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 8
Substrate and environmental controls on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon: a framework for Earth system models
journal, February 2014
- Xu, Xiaofeng; Schimel, Joshua P.; Thornton, Peter E.
- Ecology Letters, Vol. 17, Issue 5
Comparison of Arctic Climate Simulations by Uncoupled and Coupled Global Models
journal, June 2002
- Walsh, John E.; Kattsov, Vladimir M.; Chapman, William L.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, Issue 12
Benchmarking coupled climate-carbon models against long-term atmospheric CO 2 measurements : COUPLED CLIMATE-CARBON MODELS BENCHMARKS
journal, June 2010
- Cadule, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Bopp, L.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 24, Issue 2
A global analysis of soil microbial biomass carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial ecosystems: Global soil microbial biomass C, N and P
journal, December 2012
- Xu, Xiaofeng; Thornton, Peter E.; Post, Wilfred M.
- Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 22, Issue 6
The Vertical Distribution of soil Organic Carbon and its Relation to Climate and Vegetation
journal, April 2000
- Jobbágy, Esteban G.; Jackson, Robert B.
- Ecological Applications, Vol. 10, Issue 2
Rooting depths, lateral root spreads and below-ground/above-ground allometries of plants in water-limited ecosystems
journal, May 2002
- Schenk, H. Jochen; Jackson, Robert B.
- Journal of Ecology, Vol. 90, Issue 3
Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries
journal, November 1997
- Overpeck, J.
- Science, Vol. 278, Issue 5341
Global pattern and controls of soil microbial metabolic quotient
journal, May 2017
- Xu, Xiaofeng; Schimel, Joshua P.; Janssens, Ivan A.
- Ecological Monographs, Vol. 87, Issue 3
Warming-related increases in soil CO2 efflux are explained by increased below-ground carbon flux
journal, July 2014
- Giardina, Christian P.; Litton, Creighton M.; Crow, Susan E.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 9
Where does the carbon go? A model-data intercomparison of vegetation carbon allocation and turnover processes at two temperate forest free-air CO 2 enrichment sites
journal, May 2014
- De Kauwe, Martin G.; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Zaehle, Sönke
- New Phytologist, Vol. 203, Issue 3
Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections
journal, June 2012
- Good, Peter; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Lowe, Jason A.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 40, Issue 3-4
Carbon–Concentration and Carbon–Climate Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models
journal, August 2013
- Arora, Vivek K.; Boer, George J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 15
Balancing the Global Carbon Budget
journal, May 2007
- Houghton, R. A.
- Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 35, Issue 1
Causes of variation in soil carbon simulations from CMIP5 Earth system models and comparison with observations
journal, January 2013
- Todd-Brown, K. E. O.; Randerson, J. T.; Post, W. M.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, Issue 3
Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C 4 MIP Model Intercomparison
journal, July 2006
- Friedlingstein, P.; Cox, P.; Betts, R.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 14
Nitrogen limitation on land: how can it occur in Earth system models?
journal, February 2015
- Thomas, R. Quinn; Brookshire, E. N. Jack; Gerber, Stefan
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 5
Sensitivity of four ecological models to adjustments in fine root turnover rate
journal, February 2015
- McCormack, M. Luke; Crisfield, Elizabeth; Raczka, Brett
- Ecological Modelling, Vol. 297
A global analysis of root distributions for terrestrial biomes
journal, November 1996
- Jackson, R. B.; Canadell, J.; Ehleringer, J. R.
- Oecologia, Vol. 108, Issue 3
Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests
journal, June 2008
- Bonan, G. B.
- Science, Vol. 320, Issue 5882
Radiocarbon constraints imply reduced carbon uptake by soils during the 21st century
journal, September 2016
- He, Y.; Trumbore, S. E.; Torn, M. S.
- Science, Vol. 353, Issue 6306
Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain
journal, April 1999
- Pounds, J. Alan; Fogden, Michael P. L.; Campbell, John H.
- Nature, Vol. 398, Issue 6728
Earth system models: an overview: Earth system models
journal, November 2011
- Flato, Gregory M.
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 6
Global patterns of root turnover for terrestrial ecosystems: RESEARCH Root turnover in terrestrial ecosystems
journal, July 2000
- Gill, Richard A.; Jackson, Robert B.
- New Phytologist, Vol. 147, Issue 1
Phenotypic Plasticity and Interactions Among Plants
journal, May 2003
- Callaway, Ragan M.; Pennings, Steven C.; Richards, Christina L.
- Ecology, Vol. 84, Issue 5
Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback
journal, June 2010
- Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten
- New Phytologist, Vol. 187, Issue 3
Comparison of modeling approaches for carbon partitioning: Impact on estimates of global net primary production and equilibrium biomass of woody vegetation from MODIS GPP
journal, January 2010
- Ise, Takeshi; Litton, Creighton M.; Giardina, Christian P.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue G4
The role of phosphorus dynamics in tropical forests – a modeling study using CLM-CNP
journal, January 2014
- Yang, X.; Thornton, P. E.; Ricciuto, D. M.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 6
Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5: Climate Changes in MPI-ESM
journal, July 2013
- Giorgetta, Marco A.; Jungclaus, Johann; Reick, Christian H.
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 5, Issue 3
Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future directions for application of dynamic vegetation models in high-latitude ecosystems
journal, May 2014
- Wullschleger, Stan D.; Epstein, Howard E.; Box, Elgene O.
- Annals of Botany, Vol. 114, Issue 1
Temperature-associated increases in the global soil respiration record
journal, March 2010
- Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Thomson, Allison
- Nature, Vol. 464, Issue 7288