Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming
Abstract
Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests ledmore »
- Authors:
-
- Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Merced, CA (United States)
- US Geological Survey, Boise, ID (United States)
- Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Merced, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1379924
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1375086
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; FG02-07ER64457
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Ecology
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 105; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 0022-0477
- Publisher:
- Wiley
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate change; conifer; demographic model; range shift; subalpine forest; time-lag; tree line
Citation Formats
Conlisk, Erin, Castanha, Cristina, Germino, Matthew J., Veblen, Thomas T., Smith, Jeremy M., and Kueppers, Lara M. Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1111/1365-2745.12750.
Conlisk, Erin, Castanha, Cristina, Germino, Matthew J., Veblen, Thomas T., Smith, Jeremy M., & Kueppers, Lara M. Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming. United States. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12750
Conlisk, Erin, Castanha, Cristina, Germino, Matthew J., Veblen, Thomas T., Smith, Jeremy M., and Kueppers, Lara M. Wed .
"Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming". United States. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12750. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1379924.
@article{osti_1379924,
title = {Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming},
author = {Conlisk, Erin and Castanha, Cristina and Germino, Matthew J. and Veblen, Thomas T. and Smith, Jeremy M. and Kueppers, Lara M.},
abstractNote = {Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.},
doi = {10.1111/1365-2745.12750},
journal = {Journal of Ecology},
number = 5,
volume = 105,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {2}
}
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Cited by: 9 works
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Figures / Tables:
Fig. 1: The model assumed three 1-km2 patches analogous to the three sites in the recruitment experiment: (i) an alpine patch with initially no individuals, (ii) a tree line patch with mostly small saplings and few large adults, and (iii) a forest patch with initially many adults. Dispersal between treemore »
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Differences in morphological and physiological plasticity in two species of first-year conifer seedlings exposed to drought result in distinct survivorship patterns
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Data from: Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming
dataset, January 2017
- Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.
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Biotic and abiotic drivers of tree seedling recruitment across an alpine treeline ecotone
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- Frei, Esther R.; Bianchi, Eva; Bernareggi, Giulietta
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Data from: Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming
dataset, June 2017
- Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.
- Dryad Digital Repository-Supplementary information for journal article at DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.12750, 1 ZIP file (812.0 Kb)
Data from: Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming
dataset, June 2017
- Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.
- Dryad Digital Repository-Supplementary information for journal article at DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.12750, 1 ZIP file (812.0 Kb)
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