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Title: Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations

Abstract

This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Numerous studies have shown that atmospheric models with high horizontal resolution better represent the physics and statistics of precipitation in climate models. While it is abundantly clear from these studies that high-resolution increases the rate of extreme precipitation, it is not clear whether these added extreme events are “realistic”; whether they occur in simulations in response to the same forcings that drive similar events in reality. In order to understand whether increasing horizontal resolution results in improved model fidelity, a hindcast-based, multiresolution experimental design has been conceived and implemented: the InitiaLIzed-ensemble, Analyze, and Develop (ILIAD) framework. The ILIAD framework allows direct comparison between observed and simulated weather events across multiple resolutions and assessment of the degree to which increased resolution improves the fidelity of extremes. Analysis of 5 years of daily 5 day hindcasts with the Community Earth System Model at horizontal resolutions of 220, 110, and 28 km shows that: (1) these hindcasts reproduce the resolution-dependent increase of extreme precipitation that has been identified in longer-duration simulations, (2) the correspondence between simulated and observed extreme precipitation improves as resolution increases; and (3) thismore » increase in extremes and precipitation fidelity comes entirely from resolved-scale precipitation. Evidence is presented that this resolution-dependent increase in precipitation intensity can be explained by the theory of Rauscher et al. (), which states that precipitation intensifies at high resolution due to an interaction between the emergent scaling (spectral) properties of the wind field and the constraint of fluid continuity.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [4];  [4];  [4];  [5]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystems Science Division; Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States). Dept. of Land Air and Water Resources
  2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystems Science Division; Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth and Planetary Sciences Dept.
  3. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystems Science Division
  4. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Computational Research Division
  5. Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States). Dept. of Land Air and Water Resources; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Computational Research Division
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1379367
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

O'Brien, Travis A., Collins, William D., Kashinath, Karthik, Rübel, Oliver, Byna, Suren, Gu, Junmin, Krishnan, Hari, and Ullrich, Paul A. Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1002/2016MS000671.
O'Brien, Travis A., Collins, William D., Kashinath, Karthik, Rübel, Oliver, Byna, Suren, Gu, Junmin, Krishnan, Hari, & Ullrich, Paul A. Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations. United States. doi:10.1002/2016MS000671.
O'Brien, Travis A., Collins, William D., Kashinath, Karthik, Rübel, Oliver, Byna, Suren, Gu, Junmin, Krishnan, Hari, and Ullrich, Paul A. Sun . "Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations". United States. doi:10.1002/2016MS000671. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1379367.
@article{osti_1379367,
title = {Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations},
author = {O'Brien, Travis A. and Collins, William D. and Kashinath, Karthik and Rübel, Oliver and Byna, Suren and Gu, Junmin and Krishnan, Hari and Ullrich, Paul A.},
abstractNote = {This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Numerous studies have shown that atmospheric models with high horizontal resolution better represent the physics and statistics of precipitation in climate models. While it is abundantly clear from these studies that high-resolution increases the rate of extreme precipitation, it is not clear whether these added extreme events are “realistic”; whether they occur in simulations in response to the same forcings that drive similar events in reality. In order to understand whether increasing horizontal resolution results in improved model fidelity, a hindcast-based, multiresolution experimental design has been conceived and implemented: the InitiaLIzed-ensemble, Analyze, and Develop (ILIAD) framework. The ILIAD framework allows direct comparison between observed and simulated weather events across multiple resolutions and assessment of the degree to which increased resolution improves the fidelity of extremes. Analysis of 5 years of daily 5 day hindcasts with the Community Earth System Model at horizontal resolutions of 220, 110, and 28 km shows that: (1) these hindcasts reproduce the resolution-dependent increase of extreme precipitation that has been identified in longer-duration simulations, (2) the correspondence between simulated and observed extreme precipitation improves as resolution increases; and (3) this increase in extremes and precipitation fidelity comes entirely from resolved-scale precipitation. Evidence is presented that this resolution-dependent increase in precipitation intensity can be explained by the theory of Rauscher et al. (), which states that precipitation intensifies at high resolution due to an interaction between the emergent scaling (spectral) properties of the wind field and the constraint of fluid continuity.},
doi = {10.1002/2016MS000671},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
number = 2,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {6}
}

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