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Title: Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century

Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21 st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled climate projections of rising air temperatures and reduced snow cover, delayed autumn-winter migration is expected for all species, with the least delays for the Northern Pintail and the greatest delays for the Mallard. Indeed, the Mallard, the most common and widespread duck in North America, may overwinter in the Great Lakes region by the late 21 st century. This highlights the importance of protecting and restoring wetlands across the mid-latitudes of North America, including the Great Lakes Basin, because dabbling ducks are likely to spend more time there, which would impact existing wetlands through increased foraging pressure. Furthermore, inconsistency in the timing and intensity of the traditional autumn-winter migration of dabbling ducks in themore » Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways could have social and economic consequences to communities to the south, where hunting and birdwatching would be affected.« less
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [1] ;  [4] ;  [5] ;  [6] ;  [7]
  1. Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Nelson Inst. Center for Climatic Research
  2. State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Oswego, NY (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences
  3. Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Space Science and Engineering Center
  4. Long Point Waterfowl/Bird Studies Canada, Port Rowan, ON (Canada)
  5. Ducks Unlimited, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
  6. Michigan Dept. of Natural Resources, Lansing, MI (United States). Wildlife Division
  7. Linnaeus University, Sweden
Publication Date:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 1932-6203
Public Library of Science
Research Org:
University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); National Science Foundation (NSF); USEPA
Country of Publication:
United States
OSTI Identifier: